Absolute Vorticity

Quite the range of temps in the Dayton area. Mid 40s up by Eric, 54 at KDAY, 63 in my hood and 71 at MGY.

These windy days are getting old , takes considerably longer to do spring cleanup

72 as of 4pm at CVG so a new record high was established today. Have not had time to look at DAY or CMH been slammed working today. I will post more this evening. Saw the 12Z OP GFS and CMC trying to cook up something March 3-4th. Euro is still too close to us with the low but it has moved it further SE for sure versus past runs. Interesting...

Up to 70 at KDAY. It feels great!

Per the 5pm climate report:

CVG - 73 a new record
DAY - 70 a new record
CMH - 58 so will obv fall short of their record which is 70
My Hood - 73

We should do it again tomorrow at least at CVG anyway. I still expect mid 70s as long as the front doesn't speed up too much. I expect a dry frontal passage but as soon as the front passes, we'll drop like a rock. Upper 20s to around 30 by Friday morning. In the short term, We will see more rain this evening. Currently the rain / storms are located over ILL starting to get into Western IN now. Nothing severe expected for our hoods since it will be weakening some by the time it gets here as the front washes out.

Looking ahead... a normal Friday and Sat for temps then we warm up again. Watching Monday for Strong storms then we'll see how March shakes out as we get closer.

SoCal with blizzard warnings

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 22, 2023 5:21 pm Per the 5pm climate report:

CVG - 73 a new record
DAY - 70 a new record
CMH - 58 so will obv fall short of their record which is 70
My Hood - 73

We should do it again tomorrow at least at CVG anyway. I still expect mid 70s as long as the front doesn't speed up too much. I expect a dry frontal passage but as soon as the front passes, we'll drop like a rock. Upper 20s to around 30 by Friday morning. In the short term, We will see more rain this evening. Currently the rain / storms are located over ILL starting to get into Western IN now. Nothing severe expected for our hoods since it will be weakening some by the time it gets here as the front washes out.

Yep the clouds hung tough all day here. Heck the streets really didn't dry up until after noon. Now I see we were up to 63 at th last observation.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 22, 2023 4:47 pm These windy days are getting old , takes considerably longer to do spring cleanup

Just put my spring letters in the mail today.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 22, 2023 6:14 pm SoCal with blizzard warnings




Screenshot_20230222-173450_YouTube.jpg

I read that this is the first ever blizzard warning issued for the mountains outside of LA. Wow!

Rain is now moving into the area and we'll be dealing with it for the next several hours for anyone out and about this evening. Still sitting at 70 degrees at 7pm at night in February. We may not drop too far below 60 tonight at least down here. Crazy! But that'll set us up for the record warmth progged again for tomorrow.

This kind of weather in February is just ridiculous!!!

94% humidity. Disgusting weather !!

My gauge picked up .78"

Currently 55 here in G'ville and progged for around 51 Thurs morning then topping out at around 68 in the afternoon.

2125 UNK 3 WNW BLANDVILLE BALLARD KY 3695 8901 TREE FELL ON HOUSE ALONG BETHLEHEM CHURCH ROAD SOUTHEAST OF WICKLIFFE. (PAH)

2135 UNK CLINTON HICKMAN KY 3667 8899 OVER 800 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER THROUGHOUT HICKMAN COUNTY. (PAH)

2135 UNK 2 W USEC MCCRACKEN KY 3711 8885 TREE DOWN BLOCKING MASSEY ROAD AT BETHEL CHURCH ROAD IN FAR WESTERN MCCRACKEN COUNTY. (PAH)

2138 UNK 4 SSW HEATH MCCRACKEN KY 3704 8881 TREE BLOCKING ROAD ON MCKENDREE CHURCH ROAD AT INTERSECTION WITH CHILDRESS ROAD. (PAH)

2152 60 3 SSW HICKORY GRAVES KY 3679 8866 ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS REPORTED FROM RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE. (PAH)

2155 UNK 4 SSW MAYFIELD GRAVES KY 3669 8867 POWER OUTAGES ALONG OLD DUKEDOM ROAD. (PAH)

2155 UNK SYMSONIA GRAVES KY 3692 8852 TREE DOWN IN YARD IN SYMSONIA AREA. (PAH)

2155 UNK REIDLAND MCCRACKEN KY 3701 8853 UTILITY POLE DOWN ALONG EPPERSON ROAD IN REIDLAND. (PAH)

Current temps

Cpc Monday update


On Monday/D5, the system is forecast to continue rapidly east across the OH Valley, with the low occluding as it moves toward Lower MI. MUCAPE values are only averaging 50-100 J/kg per latest model guidance, and this will mitigate severe potential. Given 50 kt winds just off the surface, a conditional risk of at least isolated damaging gusts may develop on Monday/D5, and model trends will continue to be monitored.

I don't see any changes going into the first week of March, the pac remains locked in . Plenty of windy days ahead with strong cutters feeding on the temp gradient. This pattern is just what the doctor ordered for most of the lower 48 drought strricken areas especially the western half of the country

Good morning folks! A gorgeous May day on tap in late February with another record high expected, at least for CVG. Then we get winter for 1 day then warm back up again. Maybe a light wintry mix early Sat morning across the south, a big maybe but even if something frozen does fall it won't amount to anything. Then we warm up next week with the 60s back for Monday as we track our next windy and rainy system. Still not sure on severe wx as of yet. This system doesn't look as strong as it once did and we don't really have a big temp drop behind it either.

Then after that, we are into March and I don't know what the Euro is smoking but for the 3/3 to 3/4 system, I don't think I have ever seen an SLP over land that strong! This thing bombs out to 958 MB over St. Louis! Come on... no way that happens. Look for the Euro to weaken it over time. Some guidance has snow, some a cutter, the models are really all over the place. One thing is becoming more certain and we've said this before, the -NAO looks to help New England more then us in early March. We really need the Pacific to change just a little bit for us to get more into the game.

0.27" rainfall here. Temp dipped to 52 this morning and currently 59.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:48 am 0.27" rainfall here. Temp dipped to 52 this morning and currently 59.

Similar amounts down my way in that 0.25 to 0.30" range. Models definitely over did QPF for our region. Really they over did QPF even on the snowy side of the system too. MSP was forecast to get up to 2 feet and 10-15" range seems to be the theme out there. Northern Lower Mich was expecting a foot plus and I've only seen 4-8" reports coming from that area. The freezing rain accumulations have been in the 0.25 to 0.40" range and models definitely over did that too! The waves were weaker then expected along with a progressive pattern and well, there you go.

This is awful, 3 weeks ahead of normal is not good for the arbor culture world . Already had significant damage from the fall drought and add the damage from the big temperature contrast from warm to cold over Christmas , plants are already stressed. We need the cold to come back soon or more damage is in the offing.

A lot of the trees have buds on them now IMBY and the grass is really greening up too. I'm afraid that there will be damage from freezes down the road, even if wintry weather itself does not develop. I mean we've got mainly above normal temps for the rest of Feb and perhaps into early March depending on how things work out. Not good...

Wow, can we do it? Yes , a lock.

Dayton and Cbus in the club