Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 6:48 pm Next Tues/wed and beyond is suppose to be the start of bigger push to squeeze the polar vortex with warming and reducing its windspeed and possible reversal, so an important next week to That regard to see if modeling is even close . GEFs/GEPs

I'm glad the Euro Weeklies are terrible as far as accuracy goes. They show an absolute Nationwide torch for mid Feb. They also predicted cold and snow for Dec and Jan and we know how that has turned out. I do think we are seasonal temp wise starting tomorrow and most of next week. Then we get that arctic front / clipper to bring in a nice shot of cold air as we close in on the final days of January. Hoping we can score something in the next couple of weeks. Any SSW stuff won't really impact the pattern much until later in Feb and into early March. Knowing our luck, we'll probably score something good then when most folks are ready for Spring ala 2008. Of course I'd be thrilled with that.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 6:56 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 6:48 pm Next Tues/wed and beyond is suppose to be the start of bigger push to squeeze the polar vortex with warming and reducing its windspeed and possible reversal, so an important next week to That regard to see if modeling is even close . GEFs/GEPs

I'm glad the Euro Weeklies are terrible as far as accuracy goes. They show an absolute Nationwide torch for mid Feb. They also predicted cold and snow for Dec and Jan and we know how that has turned out. I do think we are seasonal temp wise starting tomorrow and most of next week. Then we get that arctic front / clipper to bring in a nice shot of cold air as we close in on the final days of January. Hoping we can score something in the next couple of weeks. Any SSW stuff won't really impact the pattern much until later in Feb and into early March. Knowing our luck, we'll probably score something good then when most folks are ready for Spring ala 2008. Of course I'd be thrilled with that.

Yea I saw the weeklies, there mostly for amusement. Those were pretty much my thoughts to finish the month also except The last 3 days of the month I'm not sure which way to go yet.

Here's what the Euro thinks at the 10 MB level.

Good Evening and still getting some nice gusts out there this evening. Temp down to 45. Les I never pay attention to weeklies or really anything outside 10 days or so. To much of the info is based on current conditions and if at the time the model runs and temps are above normal then you usually see that in the extended forecast and the same way if its cold at the time. Seems to me too much of the current conditions are just thrown into the models and wish they ignore the current conditions and really 2-3 days either side of a run and see how it plays out. My guess the forecasts would be better but of course not perfect.

Bgoney had a nice post about the PV. If this pans out then Larry Cosgrove gets a big A+ because I have not seen any other met talk about how its already underway.

You are correct just seasonal cold over the next 5 or 6 days and yes we can get snow but always a tough chore around here. We will see some decent cold afterwards but is it a few days of well below temps and we go back to above normal or is a pattern that keeps us below normal for several weeks.

Bgoney / Tim... I think we are all three basically on the same page here. We may word our posts in different ways but our thought processes basically boil down to the same thing. For Sunday and Wed of next week, both systems depend on the degree of phasing that occurs. An earlier phase means a more NW track and a later phase (or lack thereof) would mean a further SE track. I mean we all know this, we are intelligent people but for any one on our forum who reads these posts who doesn't know, this is what we are watching over the next week.

In the extended range, we should turn colder but how intense is the cold and how long does it last are question marks. If you believe in the old saying "the trend is your friend" then chances are, it doesn't last long. Probably will see more of a roller coaster pattern like what we have been seeing all month. We've seen it twice now 60s and rain / storms to 30s and snow showers in a 24 hour period. It's been tough for us snow lovers but believe it or not, at CVG we are only down 2" for this point in the season. We could be much worse off.

My gauge picked up .88" from Wed and last night and .20" from today for a combo 1.08"

39 here in G'ville with a gust to 38 mph and 43 with a gust to 47 mph in DAY.

43 here with winds a little better, only gusting to 30 mph now.

I am by no means versed in weather like a lot of you guys, but does it seem like it has been abnormally windy this winter?

BCW wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 7:47 pm I am by no means versed in weather like a lot of you guys, but does it seem like it has been abnormally windy this winter?

Totally agree! When you get these big temp swings like we've been seeing, you're going to get the wind.

Not much change for Sunday on the 18Z Euro. Some slushy snow, very light precip blah blah blah...

CB posted a precip type map for Sunday.

BCW wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 7:47 pm I am by no means versed in weather like a lot of you guys, but does it seem like it has been abnormally windy this winter?

That pre Christmas ground blizzard was "fun" for me as early Fri morning 12/23 I heard a loud bang from way back in my bedroom so I walked into the garage, looked through the garage door window and my curbside cart which I had put out Thurs evening before the front flash freeze came through, a gust caught it sending it a ways down the road as it landed near the curb almost halfway into a lane. The hearty Rumpke crew came early that morning around 3:30 or 4 o'clock and so at least thankfully the cart was empty upon retrieval. It lost a wheel from the launching impact and thankfully got a new cart a couple or so weeks later.

I had to psyche myself up to go out and retrieve.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 7:57 pm CB posted a precip type map for Sunday.


Chris-Special-1.png

Must keep those customers coming back

https://www.whio.com/news/trending/woma ... 3WQGY5GAM/

Woman killed by fallen Denny's restaurant sign from high winds in Elizabethtown, KY!

DAY had a top gust of 64 mph.

I can report a snowflake sighting on the way in to work

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 7:34 am I can report a snowflake sighting on the way in to work

Please pull over and take a picture. I really forgot what one looks like.

Drove through about 15 minutes of good snow this morning.

Good morning all! A few flakes out there today and I'm glad you got to see one Bgoney! Nice Matt! Temps will hold in the mid 30s today with wind chills in the 20s. Cloudy all day. They will break overnight to give us some sunshine and a normal January day on Sat with temps in the 35 to 40 degree range across the region. For Sunday, I am going with a burst of snow for the Metro, changing to rain then ending as snow showers early Monday. Little in the way of accum. SE Crew, probably mostly a rain event ending as snow showers early Monday. Then for folks North of us including I-70 Crew, mostly snow with a slushy inch or so possible on grassy areas. Not a lot of QPF to work with since this is an unphased and weak system. QPF amounts are in that 0.10 to 0.15" range.

Then for the big ticket item next week, GFS, CMC still are NW of us for the low so mainly a rain event ending as snow showers. Euro went back south a bit so a nice snow storm possible for I-70 posters. For the rest of us, we would all begin as snow then go over to rain with back lash snow showers after that.

Also watching a nice looking clipper for Friday with would be all snow with cold air firmly in place. So that's what is on our plates over the next week.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:12 am https://www.whio.com/news/trending/woma ... 3WQGY5GAM/

Woman killed by fallen Denny's restaurant sign from high winds in Elizabethtown, KY!

That's horrible.

EPS is SE of the OP Euro track for next week's system. GEFS is a bit SE of the OP as well. Hopefully, we can get that Apps Runner track up and running in the coming days. We'll see... it's not over yet with that one. A long way to go in fact.

Good Morning Les and the latest Nam is heading towards the Rgem with a more phased system for Sunday. Again not as phased but a step in the right direction. Hopefully the mid-day runs sort of get the models together for the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. I saw one NWS in Missouri yesterday and forget which one but they were talking about the storm next week and there was a 700 mile difference on where the storm may end up. That is huge difference to say the least

What a difference from the 0z to 12z on the nam.

Good morning Tim and JP! Wow! We got NAM'ed for sure with this next system. It is probably 3/4's snow for us down here then some light rain at the end. Precip rate is the key here and that is how you can get it done even with marginal temps. There is no doubt in my mind that temps are going to be an issue for Sunday. But you can certainly get an inch or two of slush on grassy areas / car tops if the precip rate is heavy enough.

12Z HRRR ending Sunday morning at 7am (model only goes out to 48 hours) and it's coming in colder at the end of its run also for Sunday. Doesn't look too shabby if the model were to go out in time longer.