Absolute Vorticity

19z HRRR 1-hr QPF - It actually shows .12-.15" in an hour for us. at 10:1, that would be 1.2-1.5"

Hello, all! Hope everyone is well. I live in Middletown, OH now, and my app still says 1-3. I trust you all more. Realistically, what are we looking at up here, and around what time will roads start to get bad?

Thanks, everyone!

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:24 pm Hello, all! Hope everyone is well. I live in Middletown, OH now, and my app still says 1-3. I trust you all more. Realistically, what are we looking at up here, and around what time will roads start to get bad?

Thanks, everyone!

I would say 2-4" is likely. Cold front will probably move through 7p-10p time frame.

Hello, my son works night shift tonight 10pm-4am. I looked back over past posts, but I cannot find timing on this storm. Can you help? Thank you! I saw an advisory until 5pm on Friday and also saw some predictions for possibly 4 inches of snow. Is that by Friday, 5pm?

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:24 pm Hello, all! Hope everyone is well. I live in Middletown, OH now, and my app still says 1-3. I trust you all more. Realistically, what are we looking at up here, and around what time will roads start to get bad?

Thanks, everyone!

Hey Casie! Glad to see you. Stick around for coverage.

Susannoyes wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:28 pm Hello, my son works night shift tonight 10pm-4am. I looked back over past posts, but I cannot find timing on this storm. Can you help? Thank you! I saw an advisory until 5pm on Friday and also saw some predictions for possibly 4 inches of snow. Is that by Friday, 5pm?

Hi Susan! We are expecting the front to pass through between 7-9pm respectively for Cincinnati. Earlier if you're west of there, later if you're East. 2-4" is likely by the time you get up in the morning. Then we are expecting additional light accumulations from scattered snow showers on Friday and even into Christmas Eve potentially as well. I am expecting an event total of 3-6" across the region by Christmas Morning. Good luck measuring with all of the wind so look for blowing and drifting snow too.

Thank you so much! I appreciate it, and I should tell you I always enjoy reading the forecasts and posts! Merry Christmas

Susannoyes wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:34 pm Thank you so much! I appreciate it, and I should tell you I always enjoy reading the forecasts and posts! Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas to you and your family also.

I'm sitting at 47 IMBY - this drop is going to be something to see.

18Z GFS looking similar to 18Z RGEM. Love what is going on with the data folks. Let's watch the reality this evening and esp tonight!

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:38 pm I'm sitting at 47 IMBY - this drop is going to be something to see.

45 at CVG per the 4pm reading. Going to be around a 50 degree temp drop between this evening and tomorrow morning. WOW!

GFS continues to be a thing of beauty. Has consistently been for the last 24 hours.

This is only thru tomorrow morning around 6am. Still showing those beefier totals!

This is already going to be an impactful storm! IF the GFS amounts are realized, and that's a big if, it will be a crippling event due to blowing and drifting snow since there will be more of it for the wind to blow around.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:45 pm This is already going to be an impactful storm! IF the GFS amounts are realized, and that's a big if, it will be a crippling event due to blowing and drifting snow since there will be more of it for the wind to blow around.

Correct me if I'm wrong Les but isnt the NAM normally the model that over does it on QPF?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2065.html

Snow squall threat for us!

The discussion says that it is 5 knots faster with winds, that what the models had depicted.

Getting some outside time in before the drop. 45 in Amelia (east suburb of Cincy)

Oh boy! It's our turn for an MD now!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2065.html

Is there any way of telling how fast the front is moving at this point?

sbpstudios wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:45 pm This is already going to be an impactful storm! IF the GFS amounts are realized, and that's a big if, it will be a crippling event due to blowing and drifting snow since there will be more of it for the wind to blow around.

Correct me if I'm wrong Les but isnt the NAM normally the model that over does it on QPF?

It can at certain times, but it's the lowest model on QPF. GFS is highest, followed by Euro, RGEM, HRRR, RAP etc etc.

Dovenoir wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:59 pm Is there any way of telling how fast the front is moving at this point?

Keep watching surface obs. When the winds turn to the NW the temp will drop like a rock! It's into Western IN and into extreme West KY now.

NWS Wilmington is going live on FB at 6:45.

It is almost showtime, Les!!! This might be a storm that we talk about 20 years from now

This temperature drop is going to be something epic!! Maybe a once in a lifetime event. I’m 52 and I can’t remember anything like this with a temp drop in all my life

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:43 pm This is only thru tomorrow morning around 6am. Still showing those beefier totals!


snku_acc.us_ov.png

What's the significance of the pretty obvious straight line in west Indiana?

I pulled up the IND radar and marked the separation between rain and snow that you can see on Dual-Pol Correlation Coefficient.