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Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 4:51 pm
by fyrfyter
Pete1 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 4:45 pm
I’m surprised we haven’t seen Trevor on here. Hope all is well with him.
He’s fine - I’ll nudge him to post later on.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 4:54 pm
by tron777
Pete1 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 4:45 pm
I’m surprised we haven’t seen Trevor on here. Hope all is well with him.
He's good! He and Josh (severe) have their own Weather Forecasting / Consulting company, OhioValley Weather LLC. I have been PM'ing with him on FB today.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 4:54 pm
by fyrfyter
18z GFS - 9” snow, 1.1” liquid is sleet and freezing rain-
IMG_0930.jpeg
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 4:55 pm
by tron777
18Z GFS continues the awesomeness... will post text data here in a sec. Wonderful deformation zone on Monday!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:02 pm
by tron777
Code: Select all
CVG
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -2.5 -4.5 1023 46 97 0.05 557 539
MON 00Z 06-JAN -4.6 -2.5 1017 95 98 0.46 556 543
MON 06Z 06-JAN -4.4 0.3 1009 95 98 0.50 550 543
MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.2 -3.1 1007 95 61 0.19 541 536
MON 18Z 06-JAN -3.2 -9.9 1011 96 95 0.16 536 528
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -4.5 -11.2 1019 89 54 0.05 540 525
HAO
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -3.0 -6.2 1023 45 97 0.02 556 538
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.1 -4.0 1018 95 98 0.29 555 541
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.0 -2.0 1010 95 99 0.41 549 541
MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.6 -4.8 1008 95 88 0.23 541 535
MON 18Z 06-JAN -2.9 -10.1 1011 96 97 0.17 536 528
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -5.2 -11.7 1019 89 55 0.04 539 525
MGY
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -3.6 -6.9 1023 46 97 0.01 555 537
MON 00Z 06-JAN -5.3 -4.7 1018 90 97 0.16 554 540
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.6 -2.7 1011 95 96 0.33 549 540
MON 12Z 06-JAN -6.0 -5.3 1008 94 97 0.25 541 535
MON 18Z 06-JAN -3.0 -9.9 1010 96 97 0.17 536 528
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -5.7 -11.5 1018 88 57 0.04 538 524
DAY
MON 00Z 06-JAN -4.9 -6.1 1018 77 97 0.09 554 539
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.8 -3.7 1012 94 97 0.23 549 539
MON 12Z 06-JAN -6.2 -5.9 1009 93 94 0.24 541 534
MON 18Z 06-JAN -3.0 -10.2 1010 96 97 0.12 537 528
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -5.8 -11.8 1018 88 57 0.02 538 524
CMH
MON 00Z 06-JAN -4.3 -5.6 1020 67 96 0.01 554 538
MON 06Z 06-JAN -5.2 -3.9 1013 90 98 0.14 549 539
MON 12Z 06-JAN -5.7 -5.1 1009 94 98 0.25 542 535
MON 18Z 06-JAN -2.8 -8.5 1008 95 96 0.10 536 530
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -5.6 -11.1 1016 86 65 0.06 536 524
FGX
SUN 18Z 05-JAN -2.8 -3.7 1023 60 97 0.07 558 540
MON 00Z 06-JAN -4.5 -1.7 1017 96 98 0.54 557 544
MON 06Z 06-JAN -3.5 2.5 1008 96 100 0.76 552 546
MON 12Z 06-JAN -4.2 -0.5 1006 96 43 0.08 544 539
MON 18Z 06-JAN -3.6 -8.1 1008 96 94 0.06 535 529
TUE 00Z 07-JAN -3.8 -10.3 1017 90 62 0.07 540 527
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:02 pm
by tron777
Data showing winds to 40, maybe even 45 mph on Monday in gusts. Don't know if we make Blizz criteria or not but it is borderline.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:04 pm
by tron777
18Z RGEM is still in the south / weaker camp with the N I-70 cut off and all snow Cincy Metro on north easy.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:07 pm
by tron777
Ok so here is the first bit of nowdata news that I can give. SPC mesopage has a developing low of 1002 MB over NE New Mexico.
pmsl.gif
Latest pressure falls map would indicate a SE shift into TC Panhandle and near the Red River.
pchg.gif
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:08 pm
by mainevilleweather
How accurate is the RAP? Smoking the area
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:10 pm
by tron777
mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:08 pm
How accurate is the RAP? Smoking the area
It has a tendency to overdo things sometimes but in the case of this storm, I cannot discount it. But you know never to take any extreme solution without a lot of other data supporting it.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:11 pm
by Trevor
Who's excited!?! Les -- have the boys come out yet??
Here's our forecast from the Ohio Valley Weather Center LLC, Josh and my weather information and consulting business.
We're on Facebook -- feel free to give us a follow!
www.facebook.com/ovwcllc
Happy to see everyone!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:15 pm
by tron777
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:18 pm
by tron777
Off Topic, but the 18Z GFS has a Gulf low cookin' (cold air supplied by a phased in clipper) for Friday. Seeing more and more model support for this. Euro too. We may have another thread to start guys after this one! EGADS!!
EDIT: Good snow pack refresher 3-5" event.
EDIT #2 watch that next system slipping in behind it on this run. What the hell is going on?
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:18 pm
by Trevor
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:15 pmmc-hammer.jpg
Haha love it man!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:32 pm
by MVWxObserver
ILN has Greenville e.g. in a brief window of possible sleet mixed in between 1 AM and 3 AM Mon, otherwise mostly snow for the duration of the event.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:35 pm
by Phr0z3n
Looks like cincy area has a possibility of 1.8 inch per hour snows.
IMG_1251.png
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:37 pm
by tron777
OMG No frigging way!
OMG.jpg
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:38 pm
by tron777
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:35 pm
Looks like cincy area has a possibility of 1.8 inch per hour snows.
IMG_1251.png
Agree with 1-2" per hour snow rates Sun afternoon and evening. I also think 1" per hour rates for a few hours on Monday too if the primary holds on into WV.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:38 pm
by Magnum2017
Hey Guys!
Can you all give me thoughts on ice accumulations for Mount Orab, OH once the new data rolls in? I have 7 horses and I am working really hard to figure out the best set up for them all to ride this out comfortably. What makes this a little difficult is I have to plan for the worst...which would be no power and keeping a consistent water source in front of them that won't freeze. I have a barn for four of them, but I also have a lean to shed and dry lot for the other 3.
I am trying to monitor if I need to put animal safe salt down tomorrow morning in the dry lot....
Ideally, if it stays all snow I will leave everyone out because each pasture has a heated water trough!
SO anyways- there are a lot of layers here to planning for ice vs. snow vs. power vs. no power.....any insight helps me tie up whatever loose ends I need to tomorrow morning.
My greatest fear with keeping them up is when I get them out they are fresh and slip and get hurt on the ice. I am so flat and we got so much rain I will have ice sheets EVERYWHERE.
I would love to know risk of ice accumulation (right now it looks like I am still at risk for 0.10 of ice)
and Sleet and when/if that hits.....so I can either lock everyone up and blanket them all accordingly. I am really thankful for the amount of data that is out there. I have been prepping the farm since Monday for this.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:40 pm
by BookNerdCarp
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:37 pm
OMG No frigging way!
OMG.jpg
Where is that from? LOL
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:40 pm
by tron777
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:40 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:37 pm
OMG No frigging way!
OMG.jpg
Where is that from? LOL
BAMwx.com
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:42 pm
by tron777
Magnum2017 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:38 pm
Hey Guys!
Can you all give me thoughts on ice accumulations for Mount Orab, OH once the new data rolls in? I have 7 horses and I am working really hard to figure out the best set up for them all to ride this out comfortably. What makes this a little difficult is I have to plan for the worst...which would be no power and keeping a consistent water source in front of them that won't freeze. I have a barn for four of them, but I also have a lean to shed and dry lot for the other 3.
I am trying to monitor if I need to put animal safe salt down tomorrow morning in the dry lot....
Ideally, if it stays all snow I will leave everyone out because each pasture has a heated water trough!
SO anyways- there are a lot of layers here to planning for ice vs. snow vs. power vs. no power.....any insight helps me tie up whatever loose ends I need to tomorrow morning.
My greatest fear with keeping them up is when I get them out they are fresh and slip and get hurt on the ice. I am so flat and we got so much rain I will have ice sheets EVERYWHERE.
I would love to know risk of ice accumulation (right now it looks like I am still at risk for 0.10 of ice)
and Sleet and when/if that hits.....so I can either lock everyone up and blanket them all accordingly. I am really thankful for the amount of data that is out there. I have been prepping the farm since Monday for this.
I could see up to 1/4" of ice accum out that way. Brown is a big county so the heaviest would be along the River and a little more sleet northern part of the county.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:46 pm
by tron777
Radar tonight shows the storm now starting to develop with showers moving up from the Gulf into Texas, LA, Sleet, frz rain and snow beginning to slowly gather in the Plains. A lot of it aloft but it will soon be hitting the ground.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:50 pm
by tron777
Actually I stand corrected. Checking obs now and it is snowing in Nebraska and Kansas. KC reporting frz rain Columbia MO light snow.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 5:53 pm
by tron777
Channel 9s call ice.jpg
Channel 9s call 1.jpg