Absolute Vorticity

Seeing flash flood warnings in parts of the southern plains. I expect to see several in the local area over the next 36 hours of so. This is why its hard to give a range of totals even one that is rather wide. I am going with 2-4 which I moved up from 1-3 with how things look at this point. Training of storms is very possible and would not be surprised by noon Saturday somebody gets over 6 inches. These will be local totals but just the nature of a system like we are seeing. The first round overnight into Friday morning should bring many folks 1-3 inches then how much do we get overnight Friday into early Saturday.

Les I agree some stronger storms are possible and that would be either at the start of the first round or more likely with the main system later Friday.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 6:35 pm Seeing flash flood warnings in parts of the southern plains. I expect to see several in the local area over the next 36 hours of so. This is why its hard to give a range of totals even one that is rather wide. I am going with 2-4 which I moved up from 1-3 with how things look at this point. Training of storms is very possible and would not be surprised by noon Saturday somebody gets over 6 inches. These will be local totals but just the nature of a system like we are seeing. The first round overnight into Friday morning should bring many folks 1-3 inches then how much do we get overnight Friday into early Saturday.

Les I agree some stronger storms are possible and that would be either at the start of the first round or more likely with the main system later Friday.

Definitely on the same page with this.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0312.html

MD for the area. More so wanted to post this because it looks like they’ve done an overhaul on Md display.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 6:49 pm https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0312.html

MD for the area. More so wanted to post this because it looks like they’ve done an overhaul on Md display.

Damn! That does look different.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 6:51 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 6:49 pm https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0312.html

MD for the area. More so wanted to post this because it looks like they’ve done an overhaul on Md display.

Damn! That does look different.

I believe it looks like a piece of art which again I never understand

Some t-storms (non severe) pushing into our Indy counties now. I don't see why they won't hold together for the Metro.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:24 pm Some t-storms (non severe) pushing into our Indy counties now. I don't see why they won't hold together for the Metro.

Agreed. Some pops of lightning in there and of course very heavy rainfall rates. Maybe even some small hail to boot.

Yes it looks like the storms are forming near the front. Still northwest of us but will slowly work southeast overnight. I still like that 4a-9a period of some moderate to heavy rain.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:34 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:24 pm Some t-storms (non severe) pushing into our Indy counties now. I don't see why they won't hold together for the Metro.

Agreed. Some pops of lightning in there and of course very heavy rainfall rates. Maybe even some small hail to boot.

I have my eye on that southern cell W of Versailles.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:37 pm Yes it looks like the storms are forming near the front. Still northwest of us but will slowly work southeast overnight. I still like that 4a-9a period of some moderate to heavy rain.

Yeah it’s essentially just north of the metro area now.

The boys are in agreement with us:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A cold front is quickly progressing south through the area this
evening. Radar echos and surface observations align very well with a
small line of convection along the front. These initial showers and
thunderstorms on the front may eventually expand in coverage early
this evening for a brief period. The strongest storms could produce
some hail given the instability in place. The front is expected
to push south of the Ohio River by midnight dropping
temperatures across the area and shifting winds to the north.

Despite near surface temperatures dropping behind the front and
winds shifting out of the north, the environment actually becomes
more favorable for thunderstorms later overnight. Forcing increases
north of the surface boundary due to a LLJ converging and
overrunning the cooler air in the PBL. This increase in forcing
overlaps a very moist and unstable environment aloft that should
support widespread showers and thunderstorms for areas near the Ohio
River from midnight to around at least 6am. The severe threat is
mainly limited to hail given the stable, cool PBL in place. A
flooding threat may develop if storms end up training west to east
parallel to the boundary overnight. The main impacts from this first
round of storms tonight could be increasing ground saturation and
setting the stage for flood potential Friday and Friday night

I imagine there is small hail currently under that core. VIL is starting to creep up a bit.

These storms are right on the edge of the front so it will be south of us within the next couple of hours.

Heavy rains over Dearborn and Franklin CO’s now.

So first rain test with the new plastic gauge - it read 0.08” with the frontal showers while Davis had 0.12”. Pretty close so far!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 8:00 pm So first rain test with the new plastic gauge - it read 0.08” with the frontal showers while Davis had 0.12”. Pretty close so far!

Nice! Keep that coming if you don't mind when possible throughout the event. This will be interesting! My ole Davis is all cleaned up, fresh battery and ready for the season and is still holding at 0.03"

Starting to hear some thunder. Anybody else seeing anything yet?

So did the front stall already? That cell in Indiana split to the left and is actually heading right for me!

66 degrees with some light sprinkle activity. Thinking I'll get clipped by the heavier action to my west. It looks to me like it's weakened a bit so I am not expecting hail at this time.

Temp is 52 here

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 8:17 pm So did the front stall already? That cell in Indiana split to the left and is actually heading right for me!

Looks to be coming thru Cincinnati now. Not south of me yet.

Current position of the cold front.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:59 pm Heavy rains over Dearborn and Franklin CO’s now.

Haven't seen Bright and Matt (Nellie) in some time, wonder if they've rejoined since AV transferred to the new site community?

Raining pretty steadily in Fairfield. Lightning but no thunder.

Hearing a couple rumbles of thunder now.