Absolute Vorticity

Here's to hoping customers understand that it's not worth clearing driveways with the wind coming. Pretty sure Mother Nature is faster than my snowblower.

ILN upped my zone to 2-4" for tonight. Perfect!

Doug,changes are happening quickly and I mentioned earlier today about the low pressures forming. Its like Whack A Mole and one pops up and then another pops up and which one if any try and take control for a period of time. Models were always having a hard time in getting a low to pop further south and with the angle of the trough I thought something may pop up. I was to far south but at least something seems to be brewing. Next several hours will be interesting and especially for mets including Brian in Louisville who had his video and believed the warnings and advisories would remain the same and 1 hour later they have changed.

Another thought. If your guys' expertise holds, A LOT of people are going to be blindsided. Most weather apps are still saying 1"-3".

Low over Central IN now down to 1006 MB. East Coast low at 1008 MB.

BCW wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:29 pm Another thought. If your guys' expertise holds, A LOT of people are going to be blindsided. Most weather apps are still saying 1"-3".

Great Post and I am not a fan of weather apps. I know so many folks use them but they don't tell the real story and of course the further out in time you get the worse they are and I give my neighbors a hard time when they used them because all they needed to do was text me lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:25 pm ILN upped my zone to 2-4" for tonight. Perfect!

About time they got in line

Anybody hearing any power outage reports behind the front?

ILN just tweeted this:

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:30 pm Low over Central IN now down to 1006 MB. East Coast low at 1008 MB.

Les I have noticed the low in Central In and it has deepen pretty much in the past hour or two. That may be the low that wins out which really is what the many of the models showed but how quickly will that deepen and will we get a little influx of moisture. I still see the area in northeast Arkansas and maybe its just a blip in the weather but until I see something different I will continue to watch that area as well.

snowbo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:35 pm Anybody hearing any power outage reports behind the front?

1800 without power in Missouri. a couple hundred in other states.

18Z Nested NAM at 10:1 Ratio gives most folks 4-5" of snow event total. The model shows snow continuing until around 5 or 6am then scattered snow showers developing on and off as I described in my earlier post when I made my final call. Love it when you see the data backing up your forecast. Just need the reality to occur.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:36 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:30 pm Low over Central IN now down to 1006 MB. East Coast low at 1008 MB.

Les I have noticed the low in Central In and it has deepen pretty much in the past hour or two. That may be the low that wins out which really is what the many of the models showed but how quickly will that deepen and will we get a little influx of moisture. I still see the area in northeast Arkansas and maybe its just a blip in the weather but until I see something different I will continue to watch that area as well.

Absolutely! If that weak surface reflection holds and tracks into Eastern KY as you said then wham-o! Also watching the IN and EC Low too. Need to watch everything in other words.

Ryan Hall says he'll be live on YouTube from now until 2am, if someone is looking for something to watch

Winter storm warning in parts of Northern Tn including Nashville. Lots of last minute upgrades this afternoon

Merry Christmas from your NWS Offices!

Here is a radar reflection of the low strengthening in central Indiana. Look at that precip forming rapidly!

Deepest pressure falls are currently over Cincinnati and near Washington DC.

Will the river Ohio river get a glaze?

Thumper wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:54 pm Will the river Ohio river get a glaze?

Not sure, but you really need like a couple of weeks of cold air to really get it to freeze over solid. Heck of a current going through there.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:56 pm

Thumper wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:54 pm Will the river Ohio river get a glaze?

Not sure, but you really need like a couple of weeks of cold air to really get it to freeze over solid. Heck of a current going through there.

I walked across the river in the 70's

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:56 pm

Thumper wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:54 pm Will the river Ohio river get a glaze?

Not sure, but you really need like a couple of weeks of cold air to really get it to freeze over solid. Heck of a current going through there.

There were some pieces floating in it last week. Noticed it going over one of the bridges when I was trying to figure out the white stuff on the surface. It was definitely more near the shores.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:56 pm

Thumper wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:54 pm Will the river Ohio river get a glaze?

Not sure, but you really need like a couple of weeks of cold air to really get it to freeze over solid. Heck of a current going through there.

There were some pieces floating in it last week. Noticed it going over one of the bridges when I was trying to figure out the white stuff on the surface. It was definitely more near the shores.

Oh wow! Thanks Aaron. I just didn't think we had been that cold. I've seen a thin skim on a pond around here but that's way different then a bigger moving body of water.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:05 pm

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:56 pm

Thumper wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:54 pm Will the river Ohio river get a glaze?

Not sure, but you really need like a couple of weeks of cold air to really get it to freeze over solid. Heck of a current going through there.

There were some pieces floating in it last week. Noticed it going over one of the bridges when I was trying to figure out the white stuff on the surface. It was definitely more near the shores.

Oh wow! Thanks Aaron. I just didn't think we had been that cold. I've seen a thin skim on a pond around here but that's way different then a bigger moving body of water.

They were more like sheets of ice, not big chunks. I was surprised to see them too! Definitely think they floated down from somewhere upriver.

Love the 18Z RGEM! Those two lows get together (ours and the East Coast one) and the process starts after midnight tonight and is completed by about 4am. Then the low really goes to town after that over Upstate NY. We are in the backside snows longer as a result. Then of course the snow shower machine after that adding additional light accumulations. Kuchera map is event total ending Christmas morning.