Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:57 am The tropics is usually the one weather event that will break short term droughts. Summer time patterns are just to hit and miss with thunderstorms and usually fronts die out in the Ohio Valley so the cool downs are short in duration. Of course if you get a tropical system it usually means heights strengthen ahead of the system and that can bring some decent heat and usually dry weather.

However, as we have seen in the past couple of seasons, if you get the right track, beneficial rains can also come. Typically though that doesn't occur much until Aug - Oct so a July hit would certainly be out of the norm for our neck of the woods.

12Z GFS is around a third of an inch of rain for CVG so the timing is a tad better looking today for the frontal passage on Sunday afternoon and evening.

12Z Euro is in better agreement for Sunday with the GFS today. The model has similar timing and has 0.27" for rainfall. If we get some stronger storms going, 0.50-1" like we had the other day is possible. Models obv struggle with convective precip in terms of actual amounts.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:51 pm 12Z Euro is in better agreement for Sunday with the GFS today. The model has similar timing and has 0.27" for rainfall. If we get some stronger storms going, 0.50-1" like we had the other day is possible. Models obv struggle with convective precip in terms of actual amounts.

I agree Les and again hopefully everyone gets involved but we know the timing is so key in these situations. The air behind this front is wonderful and may see dew points drop to near 50. Today is great and though temps are rising the dew points are in the low to mid 50's and this is when you can get a sneaky 90 degree day in though it feels so much better than you would normally see with 90 degrees around here.

Tim... I was thinking the same thing lol 87 as of 3pm at CVG. Can we get 89'ed today?

88 per the 5pm climate report at CVG. If that doesn't change, we fell a bit short. A 90 degree day most certainly is coming tomorrow. Low 90s looks good.

Good morning all! A week to go for Booms Day and glad to be on vacation again this upcoming week. Things will be busy around here getting ready for my party and fireworks show but I'll be around tracking storms and such with you all per my usual. Anyways... We shall see what happens tomorrow with regards to storm chances. If I recall, some of you have gone about 2 weeks without rain so I really truly hope you guys can cash in that need it on Sunday. SPC still has the marginal risk out for the Tri-state area and points North and East.

We are still looking wonderful to kick off next week. For Monday maybe only the 70s? 50s at night. The 90s return by Thurs and Fri as well as an active pattern again with a slow moving frontal boundary. Isolated storms Friday 7/1, then likely Sat and Sun. Euro even has POPS on the 4th of July where the GFS is dry and gorgeous behind the front. Lots to track with parties and such going on next weekend.

Good afternoon and we have more clouds than expected from the showers and thundershowers to the northwest. These clouds may be just enough to keep temps in the upper 80's. Hopefully Sunday most folks get some rain and there is plenty of moisture to work with but once again need the timing correct. Beautiful Monday and Tuesday and time to open the windows kind of weather before we start to warm up again Wednesday. The good thing so far is we are getting breaks between any hotter periods and I can live with that all summer.

86 at CVG as of 2pm, 87 here so far.

86 here in G'ville and 87 at DAY.

I busted with my L90s call today. 88 again at CVG, that was it. Same here for my hood. T-storm tracking tomorrow is up next on our agenda.

CMH reached 90 and DAY got to 88.

Good sunshine here with a mix of blue skies and very thin clouds.

Good Morning, interesting day in store as most of the models have storms firing up near us later today. I am not so sure and worried to much dry air from the north gets to us before they fire up. Last system we were on the northwest edge and is that location going to be further south and east. Sometimes when the models don't meet up with what you are seeing this can really bust a forecast so what I see happening may end up with a big bust and not a fan when that happens. Yes there will be storms that fire up later as this is a nice cold front heading into our area. I believe though the storms fire up more towards the Georgetown,Ky area and folks south and east of there will get in on the nice storms later today. Going to watch the early afternoon to see where the development happens and then can adjust the forecast.

Good morning and I agree with Tim in terms of where the heaviest action will be as well as the best chance for stronger storms. SE and Eastern Counties most certainly have the best chances today. Only scattered action for everyone else and as usual, some of you will not see a thing. The issues are debris clouds from the overnight convection that has weakened as it moves into the OV (minus some decent rains in West KY and SW IN attm). Can we get enough CAPE? Shear is weak unfortunately. I think storms fire near us but become stronger and better organized to the east of Cincinnati. We shall see as usual.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:03 am SE and Eastern Counties most certainly have the best chances today. Only scattered action for everyone else and as usual

Seems like a broken record. Those that receive get more. Those that get missed get missed again. Can’t remember the last time it rained here. Not expecting any today and don’t see any anytime soon. Ground is so dry it’s cracking. I would say that we would be in a drought category here but people just a couple miles from me cashed in the other day. It’s just my stupid dome I guess. Oh well I chose to live here lol

Mike you have no doubt been in a dome. I got a nice dose the other day and the lawn is still in great shape though a few spots are starting to get a little brown but all in all for this time of year and warm June temps I am happy. There is a boundary near us this afternoon and rooting for more sunshine in the next few hours. Getting some rain today along with cooler temps is what we need for everyone involved. The other day temps were still warm though we did lose some humidity. This time we will lose the humidity and temps will be great for late June.

Looking ahead to next weekend and what we might expect. One thing I have noticed is a big ridge trying to form over western Canada. Models usually at first never have the trough that will form over the eastern USA strong enough. So if that ridge does work out expect a deep trough over the eastern part of the country. So what does that mean in terms of weather for us and my guess it might be quite stormy with hot weather to our west and some really nice and cool weather to our east. We have plenty of time to get into details but this far out the first 4 days of July might be rather stormy and no it won't rain the whole time since we are in the heart of summer but chances good be rather high every day.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:15 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 10:03 am SE and Eastern Counties most certainly have the best chances today. Only scattered action for everyone else and as usual

Seems like a broken record. Those that receive get more. Those that get missed get missed again. Can’t remember the last time it rained here. Not expecting any today and don’t see any anytime soon. Ground is so dry it’s cracking. I would say that we would be in a drought category here but people just a couple miles from me cashed in the other day. It’s just my stupid dome I guess. Oh well I chose to live here lol

Hi Mike,

My dome has been in effect, too, lately. I'm not getting my hopes up for today, but looking forward to Fri through 4th of July for our and others next best chances at some liquid gold.

Starting to see some showers break out east and southeast of Indy. This is a good sign imo and hopefully this trend will continue over the next few hours. Some sunshine locally has helped though its not completely sunny you only need some sun to get things going later today.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:01 pm Starting to see some showers break out east and southeast of Indy. This is a good sign imo and hopefully this trend will continue over the next few hours. Some sunshine locally has helped though its not completely sunny you only need some sun to get things going later today.

Hi Tim,

I may have spoken too early in that previous post as I got a brief ground wetter a few minutes ago which of course is better than 0 this time of year.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:01 pm Starting to see some showers break out east and southeast of Indy. This is a good sign imo and hopefully this trend will continue over the next few hours. Some sunshine locally has helped though its not completely sunny you only need some sun to get things going later today.

Good day Tim, agree, it's a good sign for our Dayton vicinity posters of at least a chance for an isolated shower. I don't know if it's the actual cold front or just a boundary from the early morning stuff, bit there is a wind shift just SE of Indy where the iso showers are developing

Hey Eric,hope you and your family are doing well. You may be to far north to get much in the way of rainfall. Hope I am wrong but at least some nicer weather over the next few days. I expect late in the week and next weekend that better chances for everyone in getting some decent rainfall. Timing not good with 4th of July outings going on but not going to complain about any rain we get during those 4 days.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:08 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:01 pm Starting to see some showers break out east and southeast of Indy. This is a good sign imo and hopefully this trend will continue over the next few hours. Some sunshine locally has helped though its not completely sunny you only need some sun to get things going later today.

Good day Tim, agree, it's a good sign for our Dayton vicinity posters of at least a chance for an isolated shower. I don't know if it's the actual cold front or just a boundary from the early morning stuff, bit there is a wind shift just SE of Indy where the iso showers are developing

Hey Bgoney, hope all is well. I agree about the cold front and not sure either and sometimes these fronts can be hard to find because the lower humidity can lag rather far behind the front. Just hoping the drier air takes its time over the next several hours and this will increase our chances of rain. Good thing is we missed much of the activity this morning and was far enough away that we are to rather unstable.

Up to 85 here , I think that will be it as the clouds are growing taller and thicker