Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 20, 2023 4:28 pm Late week temps in the SE will be challenging record highs for Feb.

No doubt... seeing a lot of 80s and in some cases mid 80s showing up!

Yeah. I have to agree, I think it's time to throw in the towel for this winter. Something anomolys could happen, but outside of that it doesn't look good.

It's been a long time Doug since my yard has looked this green in February. Buds on the trees and bushes. Frosts and freezes can still occur of course but for snow... sheesh it looks tough!

Heavy rain and thunder atm

Good Evening and some rain this evening. Some great posts today and I will post on Tuesday as I look more at the upcoming pattern. Please don't thrown in the flag just yet as we know in the weather department things can happen quickly especially when the models miss something and that is very possible this time.

I had some thunder and lightening as well this evening with the cold front coming in. 0.09" Temp has dropped from my afternoon high of 61 to 49 as of this post.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 20, 2023 6:41 pm Good Evening and some rain this evening. Some great posts today and I will post on Tuesday as I look more at the upcoming pattern. Please don't thrown in the flag just yet as we know in the weather department things can happen quickly especially when the models miss something and that is very possible this time.

I look forward to your posts tomorrow Tim. I'd like to know your thoughts as to what you think the models maybe missing. I'm all ears my friend!

as far as prolonged cold and snow yeah im trying to remember when i had thrown my towel in for that i think it was back in the middle of Jan. but things change and patterns change so i still think we could get a shot of cold or snow yet. i remember just 3 years ago i had snow flurries on may 8th i believe. your last blizzard was in march 2008 so we cant say its a done deal yet. in more recent history i feel like we have more winter in March and April then we have had in Nov/ Dec

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by an additional 14 to 19 inches Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. For the entire storm, total accumulations will range from 18 to 25 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph by Wednesday. WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. WHEN...From 3 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Thursday. IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

Good morning all! A few light showers occurred earlier so we'll be about 8-10 degrees cooler for highs today versus yesterday. Look for 70 tomorrow and record breaking low to mid 70s on Thurs. I would not be surprised to see a wind advisory posted for Thurs either. Tues night thru Wed night is our wet period this week. Then we cool down to normal on Friday. A brief wintry mix early Sat morning is possible then light rain. More action and mild temps (50s and 60s) on tap for next week esp Mon into Tues. to end Torchuary.

A quick check of the Ensembles from 3/1 thru 3/10 show the -NAO developing and it is quite strong! It also retrogrades westward too into Baffin Island and Labrador. Normally this would be great news, but if you look at the GEFS and especially the EPS, what happens is that the -EPO and west based -NAO essentially pinch off the trough over Western Canada and the Pacific NW. Thanks to the -PNA we still get the SE ridge to deal with. So the -NAO unfortunately keeps the current pattern even more locked into place.

From an MJO standpoint, as of 2/19 it is still in Phase 7. Remember we talked about that intense tropical cyclone, Freddy? It is still expected to hit Madagascar and then Africa as it slides to the SW. You would think that it could potentially kick start the MJO in phases 1 or 2. Unfortunately, that tropical cyclone maybe too far south to impact the MJO since it is more equatorial concentric. So the take away from this post is expect more of the same overall with little change in sight IMHO. Flooding and severe wx will be our main concerns instead of snowfall. I'd love to hear other people's viewpoints but this is how I feel about it.

I have no changes in my thoughts of the long range from yesterday, which is fairly close to yours . Warm periods interspersed with cold fronts as the lows pass for the most part to our west. I think we see closer to normal temps that first half of March since the upper midwest will have a good deal of snow cover , so the cold fronts will have some bite to them. What I don't see yet is favorable storm track to link with a cold shot through the first half of March. Notice on the models how the PacJet splits even further west allowing the Pac ridge to retrograde during this period along with it , that allows deeper troughs along the coast , so this will keep the subtropical SE ridge in place in some form or another helping to lift the trough north and west of us instead of digging further SE. Still going to wait until mid month to see if the SSW can change anything before guessing what the temp profile is for the second half of march

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:03 am I have no changes in my thoughts of the long range from yesterday, which is fairly close to yours . Warm periods interspersed with cold fronts as the lows pass for the most part to our west. I think we see closer to normal temps that first half of March since the upper midwest will have a good deal of snow cover , so the cold fronts will have some bite to them. What I don't see yet is favorable storm track to link with a cold shot through the first half of March. Notice on the models how the PacJet splits even further west allowing the Pac ridge to retrograde during this period along with it , that allows deeper troughs along the coast , so this will keep the subtropical SE ridge in place in some form or another helping to lift the trough north and west of us instead of digging further SE. Still going to wait until mid month to see if the SSW can change anything before guessing what the temp profile is for the second half of march

Thanks Bgoney! I figured our thoughts are very close as they have been for the last few weeks.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:10 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:03 am I have no changes in my thoughts of the long range from yesterday, which is fairly close to yours . Warm periods interspersed with cold fronts as the lows pass for the most part to our west. I think we see closer to normal temps that first half of March since the upper midwest will have a good deal of snow cover , so the cold fronts will have some bite to them. What I don't see yet is favorable storm track to link with a cold shot through the first half of March. Notice on the models how the PacJet splits even further west allowing the Pac ridge to retrograde during this period along with it , that allows deeper troughs along the coast , so this will keep the subtropical SE ridge in place in some form or another helping to lift the trough north and west of us instead of digging further SE. Still going to wait until mid month to see if the SSW can change anything before guessing what the temp profile is for the second half of march

Thanks Bgoney! I figured our thoughts are very close as they have been for the last few weeks.

Basically just going by the ensembles. GEFs and especially the EPS have been , imo outstanding in the 10-14 day range with the 500mb pattern and temp regime all winter. What I mean by that , they haven't had wild swings from one run to the next in the long range , consistency has been awesome

funny how many weekends we had this winter that had a cool down with a complete reversal as we started the work week. same thing is going to happen this weekend. and then next week is looking warm again

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:34 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:10 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:03 am I have no changes in my thoughts of the long range from yesterday, which is fairly close to yours . Warm periods interspersed with cold fronts as the lows pass for the most part to our west. I think we see closer to normal temps that first half of March since the upper midwest will have a good deal of snow cover , so the cold fronts will have some bite to them. What I don't see yet is favorable storm track to link with a cold shot through the first half of March. Notice on the models how the PacJet splits even further west allowing the Pac ridge to retrograde during this period along with it , that allows deeper troughs along the coast , so this will keep the subtropical SE ridge in place in some form or another helping to lift the trough north and west of us instead of digging further SE. Still going to wait until mid month to see if the SSW can change anything before guessing what the temp profile is for the second half of march

Thanks Bgoney! I figured our thoughts are very close as they have been for the last few weeks.

Basically just going by the ensembles. GEFs and especially the EPS have been , imo outstanding in the 10-14 day range with the 500mb pattern and temp regime all winter. What I mean by that , they haven't had wild swings from one run to the next in the long range , consistency has been awesome

Totally agree! The OP models are known for having wild swings and that is especially true after Day 10. It is pretty amazing how locked in the ensembles have been. I am wondering if it is because the pattern has been so stable that's easier for the computers to handle it. I'm no model expert so it's just a guess.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 10:37 am funny how many weekends we had this winter that had a cool down with a complete reversal as we started the work week. same thing is going to happen this weekend. and then next week is looking warm again

Yes Sir! Wash, rinse, and repeat. Like clock work!

Pretty gusty winds here today. I'm guessing gusting 30 to 40mph??? If it wasn't for the wind it wouldn't be a bad day at all for February.

Edit: http://hint.fm/wind/

The gfs run looks to be having some issues.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 20, 2023 6:41 pm Good Evening and some rain this evening. Some great posts today and I will post on Tuesday as I look more at the upcoming pattern. Please don't thrown in the flag just yet as we know in the weather department things can happen quickly especially when the models miss something and that is very possible this time.

That's just me personally. Everyone can throw in the towels or wave the white flag at their own discretion. LoL! For me personally, I'm done with this winter, but we do know March and even April can bring surprises.

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:19 am Pretty gusty winds here today. I'm guessing gusting 30 to 40mph??? If it wasn't for the wind it wouldn't be a bad day at all for February.

Edit: http://hint.fm/wind/

CVG continues gusting to 30 mph. Peak gust is 33. At CMH, the peak gust is 41 and at DAY, 46!

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:19 am Pretty gusty winds here today. I'm guessing gusting 30 to 40mph??? If it wasn't for the wind it wouldn't be a bad day at all for February.

Edit: http://hint.fm/wind/

Saving that link to my favs!

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:14 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:19 am Pretty gusty winds here today. I'm guessing gusting 30 to 40mph??? If it wasn't for the wind it wouldn't be a bad day at all for February.

Edit: http://hint.fm/wind/

Saving that link to my favs!

In addition, this is also another good resource:

https://www.ventusky.com/