Absolute Vorticity

After this weekend it looks like a week in store with temps mainly slightly below normal to normal. This may last all week which is wonderful leading up to the 4th of July

We had a good blow here in Amelia.
A bench we have next to our pool is now in the deep end..
It’s going to be fun to get that out tomorrow.
I Have a new decorative rain gage with 1.20 inches of rain in it.
That rain gage runs a tad high similar to the euro.. with temperatures..
My other gage that I rely on blew off the fence post. I’m estimating
Around an inch here.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 7:18 pm After this weekend it looks like a week in store with temps mainly slightly below normal to normal. This may last all week which is wonderful leading up to the 4th of July

My only concern is on Sat 7/2 with a possible cold front coming in since that's my big fireworks party. Plenty of time to sort out the timing of that particular system. After it passes (whenever it occurs) Independence Day itself might be awesome with highs in the 70s on some models.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 5:34 pm Event total for my hood: 0.78" Temp is down to 70 with a dew of 67. 50s for dews are lurking to our NW just a few hours away.

Wow that’s awesome Les! I know you missed out on that last one that hit us so things do even out! . I will try again on Sunday to get some liquid gold!

Well Duke showed up and pulled the line out from under the branch. Luckily they reattached us.

1922 UNK 3 NE CLARKSBURG RUSH IN 3947 8532 UPROOTED TREE OF UNKNOWN SIZE AND HEALTH AT THIS LOCATION. (IND)

1927 UNK 1 NNE CENTERVILLE MONTGOMERY OH 3966 8413 SOME LARGE BRANCHES AND A SMALL TREE WERE DOWNED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HEWITT AVENUE AND WHIPP ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

1930 UNK 3 NNW PEPPERTOWN FRANKLIN IN 3944 8520 SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN THE WESTERN PART OF FRANKLIN COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

1935 UNK 4 SSW XENIA GREENE OH 3963 8396 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR TO BE FROM 335 PM UNTIL ABOUT 345 PM. (ILN)

1935 UNK 2 SSE XENIA GREENE OH 3966 8393 TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF US35 AND SR380. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

1942 UNK LEXINGTON SCOTT IN 3865 8562 REPORT OF A TREE DOWN IN LEXINGTON. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (LMK)

1947 UNK 1 NNW BORDEN CLARK IN 3848 8596 TREES DOWN ON DAISY HILL RD. (LMK)

1950 UNK 1 NW GREENVILLE FLOYD IN 3838 8599 TREE DOWN ACROSS VOYLES RD. (LMK)

2000 UNK 5 WNW FAIRFIELD BUTLER OH 3937 8463 A LARGE TREE FELL THROUGH THE TOP OF A PARK BUILDING. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

2000 UNK 3 ESE LEBANON WARREN OH 3941 8415 A TREE WAS DOWN ON JACK ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF PHILLIPS ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

2003 UNK 2 N MEMPHIS CLARK IN 3851 8577 TREES DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF US 31 AND BIGGS RD. (LMK)

2003 UNK 5 W FAIRFIELD BUTLER OH 3933 8463 SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN ROSS TOWNSHIP ALONG HAMILTON CLEVES ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

2010 UNK 1 SE CHARLESTOWN CLARK IN 3845 8566 DOWNED POWER LINE HANGING OVER STREET. (LMK)

2010 UNK 1 WSW CHARLESTOWN CLARK IN 3845 8568 TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON SR 403. (LMK)

2013 UNK 3 WSW WILMINGTON CLINTON OH 3943 8389 TWO LARGE HEALTHY TREE BRANCHES REPORTED DOWN. BRANCHES FELL ON WOODEN FENCE CAUSING DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

2013 UNK 4 W WILMINGTON CLINTON OH 3944 8391 LARGE BRANCHES DOWN ON WIRES. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

2015 UNK 1 WSW GOSHEN OLDHAM KY 3840 8561 TREES DOWN ON ROSE ISLAND RD. (LMK)

2020 UNK 1 SW NEW ALBANY FLOYD IN 3830 8584 TREE DOWN ON WEST ST. (LMK)

2021 UNK CARROLLTON CARROLL KY 3868 8516 TWO TREES DOWN ... ONE ON A HOUSE AND ANOTHER ON A CAR (ILN)

2025 UNK 2 SSW NEW ALBANY FLOYD IN 3828 8583 TREE DOWN ON TOP OF CAR ON 111S. (LMK)

2025 UNK 1 S NEW ALBANY FLOYD IN 3829 8583 TREE DOWN ON HOUSE. (LMK)

2025 UNK 1 N WESTPORT OLDHAM KY 3850 8546 TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON THE 5300 BLOCK OF W HWY 524. (LMK)

2027 UNK 3 ESE LOUISVILLE JEFFERSON KY 3824 8570 TREES DOWN ON GRINSTEAD DR NEAR I-64. (LMK)

2027 UNK BURLINGTON BOONE KY 3902 8472 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY (ILN)

2027 UNK 6 SE BRIGHT HAMILTON OH 3917 8477 A FEW TREES WERE DOWNED IN WHITEWATER TOWNSHIP. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

2030 UNK 2 NNE PLEASURE RIDGE PARK JEFFERSON KY 3818 8584 TREE DOWN ON HOUSE. (LMK)

2032 UNK 3 SW SLIGO OLDHAM KY 3846 8536 REPORT OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG BLUEGRASS PARKWAY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (LMK)

2035 UNK 4 WNW SAINT MATTHEWS JEFFERSON KY 3827 8570 TREES DOWN ON I-71S AT EXIT 2 ONTO ZORN AVENUE AND ON THE VA HOSPITAL PROPERTY. (LMK)

2050 UNK 1 N FERN CREEK JEFFERSON KY 3817 8560 REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ACROSS HUDSON LANE NEAR ST. GABRIEL CHURCH. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (LMK)

2050 UNK WARSAW GALLATIN KY 3879 8489 A FEW TREES DOWN IN THE WARSAW AREA. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

2050 UNK PICKERINGTON FAIRFIELD OH 3989 8277 LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN (ILN)

2057 UNK 2 N PATRIOT SWITZERLAND IN 3887 8483 SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

2105 UNK SIMPSONVILLE SHELBY KY 3821 8535 TREES IN POWER LINES ON BUCK CREEK RD. (LMK)

2105 UNK 1 N SIMPSONVILLE SHELBY KY 3823 8535 TREES IN POWER LINES ON TODDS POINT RD. (LMK)

2105 UNK 2 NW BEVERLY WASHINGTON OH 3957 8165 TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION. (RLX)

2106 UNK BERGHOLZ JEFFERSON OH 4052 8088 TREE REPORTED DOWN ON SECONDARY ROAD. (PBZ)

2110 UNK 5 N LANCASTER FAIRFIELD OH 3979 8260 A FEW TREES DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

2115 UNK 3 SE CHESTNUT GROVE SHELBY KY 3828 8523 TREES DOWN ON FOX RUN RD. (LMK)

2117 UNK 2 ENE SHELBYVILLE SHELBY KY 3823 8520 TREES DOWN AT CROPPER RD AND EMINENCE PIKE. (LMK)

2130 UNK 1 N MT. EDEN SHELBY KY 3806 8515 TREES DOWN ON BACK CREEK RD. (LMK)

2130 UNK FALMOUTH PENDLETON KY 3867 8433 SEVERAL TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT PENDLETON COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR TO HAVE OCCURRED BETWEEN 525 PM AND 535 PM. (ILN)

2130 UNK 5 SW FELICITY BRACKEN KY 3879 8417 A FEW TREES WERE DOWNED ALONG STATE ROUTE 8. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

2140 UNK 1 W BERRY HARRISON KY 3852 8439 TREE DOWN ON KY HWY 1032 W. (LMK)

2145 UNK 1 WNW SUNRISE HARRISON KY 3854 8425 TREE DOWN ON STATE HWY 1284 W. (LMK)

2148 UNK 2 E RUSSELLVILLE BROWN OH 3887 8376 A TREE WAS DOWNED ALONG RUSSELLVILLE-WINCHESTER ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (ILN)

2150 UNK GEORGETOWN BROWN OH 3887 8390 A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN ON WIRES IN THE GEORGETOWN AREA.TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

2153 UNK 3 SW CYNTHIANA HARRISON KY 3836 8433 TREE DOWN ON 62E. (LMK)

2155 UNK 1 W KEENE JESSAMINE KY 3793 8466 TREE DOWN ON CLEAR CREEK RD. (LMK)

2155 UNK 3 N KEENE JESSAMINE KY 3798 8464 TRESS DOWN ON DELANEY FERRY RD. (LMK)

2155 UNK 2 NNW COLVILLE HARRISON KY 3839 8422 TREE DOWN AT SHADYNOOK PIKE AND SHAW LN. (LMK)

2155 UNK 5 ESE BROOKSVILLE BRACKEN KY 3866 8398 A FEW TREES WERE DOWNED ALONG STATE ROUTE 10. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

2200 UNK 3 SSE RIPLEY MASON KY 3870 8383 SEVERAL TREES DOWN ... BLOCKING MULTIPLE ROADS IN MASON COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES CLARKS RUN ... KENTUCKY ROUTE 8 AND PARKER ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR TO BE BETWEEN 555 (ILN)

2205 UNK 1 E CARLISLE NICHOLAS KY 3831 8402 TREE DOWN ON E UNION RD. (LMK)

2206 UNK 3 E NICHOLASVILLE JESSAMINE KY 3788 8452 TREES DOWN ON BETHANY RD. (LMK)

2216 UNK LUCASVILLE SCIOTO OH 3888 8300 A FEW TREES DOWN ALONG THOMAS HOLLOW ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED ROM RADAR. (ILN)

2220 UNK TOLLESBORO LEWIS KY 3856 8358 SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE TOLLESBORO AREA. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

2220 UNK 4 E LUCASVILLE SCIOTO OH 3888 8293 A FEW TREES WERE DOWNED ALONG BLUE RUN TOWNSHIP ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

2230 3 NE ALBANY ATHENS OH 3926 8216 REPORTS OF SEVERE DAMAGE TO TREES AND HOMES ... DOWNED POWER LINES. HEAVY WIND ... CLOUDS WITH ROTATION. (RLX)

2242 UNK 5 W PORTSMOUTH SCIOTO OH 3874 8308 A FEW TREES DOWN ALONG CAREYS RUN ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

Good Morning and today looks great and dew points will fall even more later today. Temps will warm to the mid 80's but with a light breeze out of the north it will feel great. Friday should remain dry but add a couple of degrees to the highs and a little more moisture trying to move in so dew points will rise a tad but still nice. The weekend and how much rainfall we get will come down to timing. Seems the cold front may be moving in a little faster but this could hurt us in terms of timing. Will look at this more on Friday and maybe the timing will work itself out. I ended up with .65 inches of rainfall yesterday. Wednesday was another weather nerd day as dew points shot way up in a quick manner. Early in the day the front was moving somewhat faster but when the southerly air pushed back it won the war for several hours and was just enough locally to get many folks some much needed rain. Those battles between air masses really are the triggers for rainfall. Over the weekend we get warm and no doubt the dew points will rise but probably not the extent we saw yesterday. Saying that the cold front is nice for late June so hopefully we get a small battle brewing.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 5:34 pm Event total for my hood: 0.78" Temp is down to 70 with a dew of 67. 50s for dews are lurking to our NW just a few hours away.

Wow that’s awesome Les! I know you missed out on that last one that hit us so things do even out! . I will try again on Sunday to get some liquid gold!

I think we all have a good chance with this front Mike since it'll have a bit more of a kick to it. Hopefully your hood (and others up that way) can cash in! You're due.

Good morning Tim... great post! Only thing I will add is the dews should come up some on Saturday again and esp Sunday ahead of that front. For temps.. I am only going L90s for Saturday. I think we'll stay in the 80s today and Fri. Also on Sunday due to clouds / storms in the afternoon.

First half of next week looks great with near to below avg temps, low humidity, and a morning or two in the 50s.

59 / 58 here this morning. No fog but in river valleys there maybe some esp in areas that got the rain yesterday. We will probably see the same thing tomorrow morning, fog wise.

Rainfall amounts on Sunday... The GFS has the heavier rains south of us and another corridor NE of us. The Euro continues to want to peg us with the best action. So it's going to boil down to exactly what Tim said. The timing of the front. Can it time itself out like yesterday where it moves in when we get peak heating? That's what we need. We actually would want it even slower for our I-70 Crew to get more involved in the action, which they certainly need.

el zippo yesterday in Maineville/Morrow area. not. a. single. drop.

Sargent51 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:07 am el zippo yesterday in Maineville/Morrow area. not. a. single. drop.

Hopefully you can cash in on Sunday!

12Z NAM looks nice for most folks Sunday afternoon and evening. The storms blow up at the right time and intensify into a solid line that should deliver some much needed rain to a good bulk of our area. Obviously, some folks will get little to none and some will get 0.50-1" That's just the way it goes with t-storms but if the model is correct, the chances look really good.

NAM has an inch for CVG which agrees with the last several Euro runs too.

12Z GFS shows scattered storms and much lower rainfall amounts versus the other models. I believe it is because the GFS is a bit too slow with the front and it's unfavorable timing for us.

12Z Euro on this run looks more like the GFS for Sunday's rain.

IF the north of I-70 areas get screwed on Sun, look for UNwelcomed guest of abnormally dry to start settling in.

----

Eric... Thank you Bro for posting the drought map. The D0 area is trying to work its way in. Most folks know this, but for any new folks on our forum, the above map does not take into account the rain some of us got yesterday. That and Sunday's rain will be calculated in next week's update. Now I do agree with you Eric, if you all up north miss out on Sunday then yeah, the D0 area would not surprise me at all in that zone. I am cheering you all on that need the rain and hope that everyone can cash in (but we all know that rarely happens in summer).

86 at CVG per the 5pm climate report. 85 for my high here. As I said this morning, watch for patchy dense fog overnight and esp in the morning. I am expecting the upper 80s tomorrow. So CVG may get 89'ed. I am not expecting 90 but who knows, if a jet takes off at the right time, maybe. I do expect our next 90 degree day to come Saturday as I said before. Then all eyes are on our next rain chances come Sunday afternoon and evening. We will continue to track those chances and good luck to all, esp our I-70 folks and anyone south of there who missed out such as Sargent.

57 here this morning! Gorgeous! See my above post as I don't really have many changes in the forecast to report other than a marginal risk for severe wx is out for Sunday.

Good Morning Les. Beautiful day in store so I will be outside getting as much done before the humidity comes back on Saturday. Not much to talk about as we are in a summer pattern. If we can continue to get breaks in the heat then the summer will not be bad. The big question imo is rainfall and can we continue to get some rain every 4 or 5 days. Almost every summer we have short term drought and I expect that this summer as well. The extent of that will determine if we stay with near normal temps or we dry out enough to have some hot weather.

Tropics and the gfs is not showing anything yet and that model tends to go overboard but the CMC does show something late in the period with a system in the GOM.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:24 am Good Morning Les. Beautiful day in store so I will be outside getting as much done before the humidity comes back on Saturday. Not much to talk about as we are in a summer pattern. If we can continue to get breaks in the heat then the summer will not be bad. The big question imo is rainfall and can we continue to get some rain every 4 or 5 days. Almost every summer we have short term drought and I expect that this summer as well. The extent of that will determine if we stay with near normal temps or we dry out enough to have some hot weather.

Tropics and the gfs is not showing anything yet and that model tends to go overboard but the CMC does show something late in the period with a system in the GOM.

Good morning Tim! I went like 8 or 9 days without rain and with those 90s that we had, the lawn was starting to get brown patches in it already so the rain I got the other day was very much needed and it saved it. If we cash in on Sunday, we'll be fine for next week too. Like you said, we need a solid hit at least once a week if we continue to see those 90s or a short term drought is possible like you said. I guess the new media and NWS buzz word for this summer is "Flash Drought." I've never heard of it up until now. Always something with those whacky people.

Anyway... can the tropics give us a helping hand in the future? Interestingly enough, we've got a wave that we're tracking out in the far ATL that shows some promise of development. As usual, see the Tropical Forum for those details. No idea if the CONUS will see anything this far out but you never know. It'll be a week to 10 days before we know that answer. The real question for us right now is, do we continue to see short bursts of heat, then a front knocking us back down? Again, as you correctly stated, if that answer is yes, we'll be fine with regards to any short term droughts. It's just a little too early to tell. My best guess is we start July cooler then normal after that next front passes in the Sat or Sun time frame (7/2 or 7/3) then we're below normal for a bit but I suspect the 90s will make a come back not long after that.

The tropics is usually the one weather event that will break short term droughts. Summer time patterns are just to hit and miss with thunderstorms and usually fronts die out in the Ohio Valley so the cool downs are short in duration. Of course if you get a tropical system it usually means heights strengthen ahead of the system and that can bring some decent heat and usually dry weather.