Page 34 of 36
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:48 am
by dce
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:43 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:01 am
Sustained cold in our region is hard to come by during an El Nino, especially a more significant one. But as you have mentioned many times, we don't need super sustained cold, just cold enough to get snow. In all reality that is how it usually goes around here anyways when we get a big one. Temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s. If we are in the ice box, then suppression city but we can do well with clippers in that regime.
I sure did miss a good ole fashioned clipper pattern. Those just seem to be non-existent anymore.
2013-14 was the last sustained clipper pattern I can recall.
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:49 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:07 am
Good Morning and a small amount of light rain and 33 here. Almost always when you have record warmth there will be record cold in another area of the world and that is exactly what happened in December. Two extremes is the northern plains and upper mid-west with record warmth and then northern China with record cold. Droughts and floods similar.
Concerning a possible bigger storm in January and my guess is we will have one but when and where is way too early and models when they get so far out usually go to the mean. I agree normally for us to get into a colder pattern you need that big cutter to help bring down the cold and one where it stays go for a longer term. Already we are starting to see the cold more on this side of the planet in Alaska and western,central and northern Canada. Snow cover will add up hopefully north and west over the next 10 days to aid in the cold air moving southward.
I still believe at the end of the day eastward with these storms are more likely because I am not seeing a big southeast ridge and with the STJ still moving right along its going to hard for that ridge to build in the eastern USA. Even though the cold has been average kind of cold at best in the arctic regions we have seen those spokes of cold to be very cold in lower latitudes.
Good morning Tim! That just doesn't seem right for Northern Wisconsin. Sheesh! But I can see why. I checked the local climate data for Wausau per the NWS in Green Bay and thru the 27th, only 12/1 had a below avg high temp. The rest of the month has been solidly above avg. Currently, the city is at 33.1 degrees for the month, which is 11.8 degrees above the norm. Wow!
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:51 am
by Bgoney
Those Aleutian lows just keep ruining the pattern shift
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:52 am
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:40 am
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:09 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:51 am
Last week’s swarm of record warmth
IMG_1133.gif
Bgoney, there isn't a lot of blues and greens showing up on this map with the exception of China! Wow, is all I can say!
Yep , the commies have commandeered the cold all winter. Winning the cold war
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:53 am
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 10:37 am
Comparing last year’s fall/winter drought to this year’s. About the same for the OV and worse for the TV and southern coast. Still indicative of a non existent SEridge
IMG_1136.pngIMG_1137.png
If the drought doesn't get erased in the next few months, it could be one long, hot scorching summer next year!
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:55 am
by tron777
dce wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:48 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:43 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:01 am
Sustained cold in our region is hard to come by during an El Nino, especially a more significant one. But as you have mentioned many times, we don't need super sustained cold, just cold enough to get snow. In all reality that is how it usually goes around here anyways when we get a big one. Temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s. If we are in the ice box, then suppression city but we can do well with clippers in that regime.
I sure did miss a good ole fashioned clipper pattern. Those just seem to be non-existent anymore.
2013-14 was the last sustained clipper pattern I can recall.
Yeah, same here Doug. That was definitely a polar jet dominated winter. No major snow storms but the frequency of the events were wonderful and plenty of cold air to so the snow pack could build. It still has been the last great winter we've had as a region IMO.
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:59 am
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:51 am
Those Aleutian lows just keep ruining the pattern shift
They are! Very typical for a strong El Nino. But, the fantasy 12Z GFS today continues to show something we have been lacking. A nice baroclinic zone for storm systems to work with and thus, a better chance at getting a bigger storm system to pull down some nice arctic air. We get a nice -EPO too which (as we both know) is extremely beneficial for cold air and snow for the Central and Eastern US.
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:00 pm
by Bgoney
Notice the first true arctic high of the winter (weak)at the top dropping down only to get scared and retreat from the Aleutian onslaught.
IMG_1138.gif
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:12 pm
by dce
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:55 am
dce wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:48 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:43 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:01 am
Sustained cold in our region is hard to come by during an El Nino, especially a more significant one. But as you have mentioned many times, we don't need super sustained cold, just cold enough to get snow. In all reality that is how it usually goes around here anyways when we get a big one. Temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s. If we are in the ice box, then suppression city but we can do well with clippers in that regime.
I sure did miss a good ole fashioned clipper pattern. Those just seem to be non-existent anymore.
2013-14 was the last sustained clipper pattern I can recall.
Yeah, same here Doug. That was definitely a polar jet dominated winter. No major snow storms but the frequency of the events were wonderful and plenty of cold air to so the snow pack could build. It still has been the last great winter we've had as a region IMO.
2014-15 wasn't too bad either if I recall. I think the region had 30+ inches area wide that year. December 2014 was warm and pretty much snowless just like this year, if my memory is correct, so it's not impossible to still have a snowy winter after a bad December.
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:21 pm
by tron777
dce wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:12 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:55 am
dce wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:48 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:43 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:01 am
Sustained cold in our region is hard to come by during an El Nino, especially a more significant one. But as you have mentioned many times, we don't need super sustained cold, just cold enough to get snow. In all reality that is how it usually goes around here anyways when we get a big one. Temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s. If we are in the ice box, then suppression city but we can do well with clippers in that regime.
I sure did miss a good ole fashioned clipper pattern. Those just seem to be non-existent anymore.
2013-14 was the last sustained clipper pattern I can recall.
Yeah, same here Doug. That was definitely a polar jet dominated winter. No major snow storms but the frequency of the events were wonderful and plenty of cold air to so the snow pack could build. It still has been the last great winter we've had as a region IMO.
2014-15 wasn't too bad either if I recall. I think the region had 30+ inches area wide that year. December 2014 was warm and pretty much snowless just like this year, if my memory is correct, so it's not impossible to still have a snowy winter after a bad December.
Absolutely! Winter has only just begun. Climo wise, 0.8" (using CVG) is not even close to being a top ten least snowy December. If I recall without looking, #10 is 0.3" or something so we've had a few snowless Decembers in other words. A lot of the time, regardless of the ENSO state our best snows are in January and February. Most strong El Nino winters (there are exceptions) aren't known for big cold and snow, but they can produce one or two monster snow storms! 97-98 is a great example. We had 18" Feb 4-6th 1998. Outside of that storm, virtually no snow occurred.
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:34 pm
by tron777
Per John Gumm at Local 12... below are the 2023 weather extremes at CVG. Local numbers of course will vary. All in all, 2023 was a pretty boring year for weather IMO but again, it is all in perspective as to where you live.
2023 Stats.jpg
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 1:46 pm
by tron777
Temps are holding steady in the 30s this afternoon under cloudy skies. Maybe a few sprinkles or drizzle but not much too be had on radar this afternoon. Most of the action will be to our NW and eventually to our SW tomorrow on the backside of the upper low. A few rain and snow showers are certainly possible tonight and tomorrow but nothing to write home about. A lingering rain or snow shower early Sat otherwise dry. Temps should be seasonal in the 30s and 40s.
I will go ahead and get the January thread going for medium and longer range talk.
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 1:58 pm
by dce
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:55 am
dce wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:48 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:43 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:01 am
Sustained cold in our region is hard to come by during an El Nino, especially a more significant one. But as you have mentioned many times, we don't need super sustained cold, just cold enough to get snow. In all reality that is how it usually goes around here anyways when we get a big one. Temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s. If we are in the ice box, then suppression city but we can do well with clippers in that regime.
I sure did miss a good ole fashioned clipper pattern. Those just seem to be non-existent anymore.
2013-14 was the last sustained clipper pattern I can recall.
Yeah, same here Doug. That was definitely a polar jet dominated winter. No major snow storms but the frequency of the events were wonderful and plenty of cold air to so the snow pack could build. It still has been the last great winter we've had as a region IMO.
Our winter has started of about as bad as possible for winter weather enthusiasts. That being said, we couldn't ask for much more than what seems to be an imminent SSW event. At least we aren't looking to Jan and Feb with no hope. There is, at the very least, something pretty significant going in our favor. Like has been said before many times on this forum, a SSW doesn't necessarily mean our part of the globe will see the benefits, but I certainly like our chances.
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 2:25 pm
by tron777
dce wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 1:58 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:55 am
dce wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:48 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:43 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:01 am
Sustained cold in our region is hard to come by during an El Nino, especially a more significant one. But as you have mentioned many times, we don't need super sustained cold, just cold enough to get snow. In all reality that is how it usually goes around here anyways when we get a big one. Temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s. If we are in the ice box, then suppression city but we can do well with clippers in that regime.
I sure did miss a good ole fashioned clipper pattern. Those just seem to be non-existent anymore.
2013-14 was the last sustained clipper pattern I can recall.
Yeah, same here Doug. That was definitely a polar jet dominated winter. No major snow storms but the frequency of the events were wonderful and plenty of cold air to so the snow pack could build. It still has been the last great winter we've had as a region IMO.
Our winter has started of about as bad as possible for winter weather enthusiasts. That being said, we couldn't ask for much more than what seems to be an imminent SSW event. At least we aren't looking to Jan and Feb with no hope. There is, at the very least, something pretty significant going in our favor. Like has been said before many times on this forum, a SSW doesn't necessarily mean our part of the globe will see the benefits, but I certainly like our chances.
I do too. I got the January thread going and have a good post to get the new month's discussion started!
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 2:32 pm
by MVWxObserver
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:24 am
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:35 pm
When it rains it pours! My folks and I all tested positive for Covid this afternoon.
And on top of that my Mom Joyce is at our local Wayne Health Care ER as she had an abdominal x-ray and its been confirmed that she has a bowel blockage.
She is currently talking to a surgeon.
The Lord is good and He'll get us all through this!
Currently 43 here in G'ville and progged for around 36 on Thurs morning.
So Sorry to hear Eric! Will def be in my prayers!
Thank you, Mike!
My mom was transferred last night by ambulance to Miami Valley Hospital in downtown Dayton. Her surgeon Dr. Jason Miner is pondering and weighing the risks re doing surgery as her obesity, heart, and her age at 84. Praying that the Lord will guide him and his team on what to do for her. Its rough not being able to be there for and with her because of Covid. She's in the Lord's hands and His presence as the Mighty Physician will sustain her.
Currently 41 here in G'ville and has reached ILN's progged high for here.
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 2:41 pm
by tron777
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 2:32 pm
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:24 am
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:35 pm
When it rains it pours! My folks and I all tested positive for Covid this afternoon.
And on top of that my Mom Joyce is at our local Wayne Health Care ER as she had an abdominal x-ray and its been confirmed that she has a bowel blockage.
She is currently talking to a surgeon.
The Lord is good and He'll get us all through this!
Currently 43 here in G'ville and progged for around 36 on Thurs morning.
So Sorry to hear Eric! Will def be in my prayers!
Thank you, Mike!
My mom was transferred last night by ambulance to Miami Valley Hospital in downtown Dayton. Her surgeon Dr. Jason Miner is pondering and weighing the risks re doing surgery as her obesity, heart, and her age at 84. Praying that the Lord will guide him and his team on what to do for her. Its rough not being able to be there for and with her because of Covid. She's in the Lord's hands and His presence as the Mighty Physician will sustain her.
Currently 41 here in G'ville and has reached ILN's progged high for here.
Oh no! Prayers for your Mom, and really the entire family Bro!
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 3:10 pm
by MVWxObserver
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 2:41 pm
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 2:32 pm
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:24 am
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:35 pm
When it rains it pours! My folks and I all tested positive for Covid this afternoon.
And on top of that my Mom Joyce is at our local Wayne Health Care ER as she had an abdominal x-ray and its been confirmed that she has a bowel blockage.
She is currently talking to a surgeon.
The Lord is good and He'll get us all through this!
Currently 43 here in G'ville and progged for around 36 on Thurs morning.
So Sorry to hear Eric! Will def be in my prayers!
Thank you, Mike!
My mom was transferred last night by ambulance to Miami Valley Hospital in downtown Dayton. Her surgeon Dr. Jason Miner is pondering and weighing the risks re doing surgery as her obesity, heart, and her age at 84. Praying that the Lord will guide him and his team on what to do for her. Its rough not being able to be there for and with her because of Covid. She's in the Lord's hands and His presence as the Mighty Physician will sustain her.
Currently 41 here in G'ville and has reached ILN's progged high for here.
Oh no! Prayers for your Mom, and really the entire family Bro!
Thank you very much, Bro!
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 3:32 pm
by tron777
That isn't a shock. I think it's more sad then anything. One thing is for sure, if we ever get some arctic air intrusions, LES will be prolific!
GL Ice or Lack There of.png
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 3:50 pm
by winterstormjoe
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 2:32 pm
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:24 am
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:35 pm
When it rains it pours! My folks and I all tested positive for Covid this afternoon.
And on top of that my Mom Joyce is at our local Wayne Health Care ER as she had an abdominal x-ray and its been confirmed that she has a bowel blockage.
She is currently talking to a surgeon.
The Lord is good and He'll get us all through this!
Currently 43 here in G'ville and progged for around 36 on Thurs morning.
So Sorry to hear Eric! Will def be in my prayers!
Thank you, Mike!
My mom was transferred last night by ambulance to Miami Valley Hospital in downtown Dayton. Her surgeon Dr. Jason Miner is pondering and weighing the risks re doing surgery as her obesity, heart, and her age at 84. Praying that the Lord will guide him and his team on what to do for her. Its rough not being able to be there for and with her because of Covid. She's in the Lord's hands and His presence as the Mighty Physician will sustain her.
Currently 41 here in G'ville and has reached ILN's progged high for here.
Eric, prayers out for you, your mom and your family!
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:13 pm
by tron777
43 for the high at CVG today but that occurred after midnight. 41 here. Right now... precip is struggling to push in from the west. The ULL (what's left of it) is over Indiana per 500 MB Analysis on the SPC's meso page.
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:17 pm
by snowbo
Hang in there Eric. We're praying for you and your family!!!
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:50 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:34 pm
Per John Gumm at Local 12... below are the 2023 weather extremes at CVG. Local numbers of course will vary. All in all, 2023 was a pretty boring year for weather IMO but again, it is all in perspective as to where you live.
2023 Stats.jpg
What I find even more interesting is the difference between the high and low for the year is only 79 degrees. That must be close to a record
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:29 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:50 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:34 pm
Per John Gumm at Local 12... below are the 2023 weather extremes at CVG. Local numbers of course will vary. All in all, 2023 was a pretty boring year for weather IMO but again, it is all in perspective as to where you live.
2023 Stats.jpg
What I find even more interesting is the difference between the high and low for the year is only 79 degrees. That must be close to a record
As Bgoney posted previously, we know that 15 degrees is the record warmest low we have ever had for a calendar year. But yeah... that is not much of a spread at all. No idea if that is a record or if the NWS even keeps a stat like that. I wish the stats folks that are used for professional sports would be used in weather.
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2023 3:09 am
by MVWxObserver
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 3:50 pm
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 2:32 pm
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:24 am
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:35 pm
When it rains it pours! My folks and I all tested positive for Covid this afternoon.
And on top of that my Mom Joyce is at our local Wayne Health Care ER as she had an abdominal x-ray and its been confirmed that she has a bowel blockage.
She is currently talking to a surgeon.
The Lord is good and He'll get us all through this!
Currently 43 here in G'ville and progged for around 36 on Thurs morning.
So Sorry to hear Eric! Will def be in my prayers!
Thank you, Mike!
My mom was transferred last night by ambulance to Miami Valley Hospital in downtown Dayton. Her surgeon Dr. Jason Miner is pondering and weighing the risks re doing surgery as her obesity, heart, and her age at 84. Praying that the Lord will guide him and his team on what to do for her. Its rough not being able to be there for and with her because of Covid. She's in the Lord's hands and His presence as the Mighty Physician will sustain her.
Currently 41 here in G'ville and has reached ILN's progged high for here.
Eric, prayers out for you, your mom and your family!
Thank you, Joe!
The MV staff has been trying suppositories for her so prayerfully the Lord through those can help get her regulated!
Re: December 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2023 3:15 am
by MVWxObserver
snowbo wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:17 pm
Hang in there Eric. We're praying for you and your family!!!
Thank you, Bo!