March 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

3.71" from the 12Z Euro at CVG.

[tpweather]

Thanks Les. No doubt an interesting couple of days in the weather world in the Ohio Valley. This is no doubt a true early spring wrestling match between the warmth that we expect to head north this time of year and winter which still has hold in the northern plains and upper mid-west with plenty of snow on the ground especially for this time of year. This time the battle zone is the Ohio Valley. Many times this time of year I tend to go with the warmth winning over but the cold front heading this way is strong and has cold air which has survived because of the snow cover.

Th rainfall today was a tad further south than models showed but nothing out of whack. What happens on Thursday and how much warmth will come northward is the question. Do we locally stay in the clouds all day which is possible and what about folks in the I-64 area and will they stay cloudy or will the sun break out and send temps rather high.

Then the front will stall but will that be in the I-70 area,our local area or I-64. This will determine the first round of heavy rain though everyone will get in on the rain. Then we have the so called main event as low pressure heads this way with plenty of moisture still available.

Hard not to argue with 1-3 for most folks and then sort of see how things are shaping up on Thursday. Yes I believe somebody will get over 4 inches and even higher as we know these systems ramp up and down as waves pass and if you hit the jackpot each time then getting towards 5 or even 6 inches is even possible in local areas.

As of today the yearly temp is 5.3 degrees higher than normal and the precip is almost normal for this time of year. Over the next 10 days temps will go back and forth so temps by the end of March will end up between 5-6 degrees above normal. Precip though will be way above normal but how much will largely be determined by the upcoming system of systems.

[tpweather]

Starting to see flood watches going in effect from southern Missouri into central Kentucky. Several more to go as I expect central Illinois and Indiana plus southern and maybe central Ohio and of course the remainder of northern Kentucky. These seem correct as the models have been showing this for days and not showing any signs of this not being a heavy rain event for many.

[tron777]

Flood Watch in effect for DAY and Cincy Metros from 8pm Thursday thru Saturday afternoon.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...For the following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette
IN, Franklin IN, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union IN and Wayne. In
Northern Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin,
Grant, Kenton, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson. In Ohio, Butler,
Clermont, Clinton, Greene, Hamilton, Montgomery, Preble and Warren.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

[tron777]

53 here currently. Temps will be steady or slowly rise tonight. 70 still in reach tomorrow. 50 / 50 chance of rain. Late tomorrow, the higher chances kick in. Friday is a washout. Action ends Saturday. I like 3" for the avg amount. Some will see 2" Some could see 5"+. But as a whole I am sticking with that number as being my final call for CVG, My hood, etc.

[tpweather]

53 here currently. Temps will be steady or slowly rise tonight. 70 still in reach tomorrow. 50 / 50 chance of rain. Late tomorrow, the higher chances kick in. Friday is a washout. Action ends Saturday. I like 3" for the avg amount. Some will see 2" Some could see 5"+. But as a whole I am sticking with that number as being my final call for CVG, My hood, etc.

Hey Les its going to be interesting on Thursday to see how quickly the front arrives in the area. Clouds will also play a big part in temps. Going to be close and further south towards Lexington would not be surprised to see 75 or higher but CVG I am not sure if we make it to 70 and the reason is of course the front but cloudiness that could keep temps down. I will go with 66 at CVG. Rain totals and I believe we have those covered and yes like any system there will be busts high and low. Usually in these kind of systems southern Indiana gets hammered more often than we do locally. This system is somewhat different as we have a strong enough cold front to make it through here and may end up close to Richmond,Ky or so. Looks like Thursday evening until early Friday its folks that are north of this front as it works back as a warm front when the 2nd system gets its act together. We should get a break sometime later Friday before the main system comes through and how fast does that move through will determine if we get some of the higher totals.

So the models are giving us a road map and we just need to adjust totals as the systems play out starting on Thursday.

[MVWxObserver]

Flood Watch in effect for DAY and Cincy Metros from 8pm Thursday thru Saturday afternoon.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...For the following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette
IN, Franklin IN, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union IN and Wayne. In
Northern Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin,
Grant, Kenton, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson. In Ohio, Butler,
Clermont, Clinton, Greene, Hamilton, Montgomery, Preble and Warren.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

Sat afternoon at 2 o'clock it'll expire.

[MVWxObserver]

Today's 5 PM wx segment on WHIO7 rainfall forecast map showed for here in Greenville e.g. for 2.83"

Currently 48 here in my area and then holding steady around 49 for Thurs morning then topping out at around 65 in the afternoon.

[tron777]

53 here currently. Temps will be steady or slowly rise tonight. 70 still in reach tomorrow. 50 / 50 chance of rain. Late tomorrow, the higher chances kick in. Friday is a washout. Action ends Saturday. I like 3" for the avg amount. Some will see 2" Some could see 5"+. But as a whole I am sticking with that number as being my final call for CVG, My hood, etc.

Hey Les its going to be interesting on Thursday to see how quickly the front arrives in the area. Clouds will also play a big part in temps. Going to be close and further south towards Lexington would not be surprised to see 75 or higher but CVG I am not sure if we make it to 70 and the reason is of course the front but cloudiness that could keep temps down. I will go with 66 at CVG. Rain totals and I believe we have those covered and yes like any system there will be busts high and low. Usually in these kind of systems southern Indiana gets hammered more often than we do locally. This system is somewhat different as we have a strong enough cold front to make it through here and may end up close to Richmond,Ky or so. Looks like Thursday evening until early Friday its folks that are north of this front as it works back as a warm front when the 2nd system gets its act together. We should get a break sometime later Friday before the main system comes through and how fast does that move through will determine if we get some of the higher totals.

So the models are giving us a road map and we just need to adjust totals as the systems play out starting on Thursday.

Are you ready to throw some numbers out? As you know, I like 3" is a good avg for the area.

[tron777]

Latest thinking form the boys:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Additional showers and some thunderstorms will develop during
the day on Thursday and continuing into Thursday night as a
frontal boundary moves into and then meanders near the region.
There is another potential for some isolated hail during the day
on Thursday as well. Again most of the hail is expected to be
sub-severe however cannot rule out isolated hail closer to
severe criteria. Rainfall will become more enhanced Thursday
night and due to this have the flood watch starting Thursday
evening.

High temperatures on Thursday will rise into the 60s and 70s.
There will be a wide range in temperatures Thursday night
depending on location with respect to the boundary with
temperatures dropping into the 30s across the north and 50s
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main concern at the start of the extended period will be a nearly
surface boundary that will likely be positioned near the Ohio River.
Guidance suggests showers will continue at times along this
boundary.

Main mid-level energy will arrive Friday evening into Friday night.
The west-east front across the south will begin to slowly move north
as a southerly LLJ of 50+ knots shifts perpendicularly over it. This
will allow PWATs near or exceeding the climatological maximum
(around 1.2") across the middle Ohio River Valley. With warm cloud
depths of around 10kft, several factors will be in place for
efficient heavy rainfall. This supports flood/flash flood potential
and the recently-issued flash flood watch extending into Saturday.
Biggest region of concern based on current guidance is the Tri-State
region due to both high QPF and ground-based factors (terrain and
soil moisture).

Occlusion moves the widespread precipitation to the east Saturday...
however the cold front and surface low will likely still be lagging
to the west. GFS and NAM each show surface-based instability peaking
in the 500-1000J range from midday into the late afternoon,
especially across south-central OH and northeast KY. Will need to
watch this closely as guidance becomes more focused. The other
concern on Saturday will be gusty winds. Both NAM and GFS show steep
lapse rates through the low-levels along with 50-60 knot LLJ at
850mb. Amount of sky cover will be an important factor in
determining how well these strong winds translate down to the
surface. Will keep wind potential in the HWO and add an isolated
severe storm threat in the southeast.

[tpweather]

53 here currently. Temps will be steady or slowly rise tonight. 70 still in reach tomorrow. 50 / 50 chance of rain. Late tomorrow, the higher chances kick in. Friday is a washout. Action ends Saturday. I like 3" for the avg amount. Some will see 2" Some could see 5"+. But as a whole I am sticking with that number as being my final call for CVG, My hood, etc.

Hey Les its going to be interesting on Thursday to see how quickly the front arrives in the area. Clouds will also play a big part in temps. Going to be close and further south towards Lexington would not be surprised to see 75 or higher but CVG I am not sure if we make it to 70 and the reason is of course the front but cloudiness that could keep temps down. I will go with 66 at CVG. Rain totals and I believe we have those covered and yes like any system there will be busts high and low. Usually in these kind of systems southern Indiana gets hammered more often than we do locally. This system is somewhat different as we have a strong enough cold front to make it through here and may end up close to Richmond,Ky or so. Looks like Thursday evening until early Friday its folks that are north of this front as it works back as a warm front when the 2nd system gets its act together. We should get a break sometime later Friday before the main system comes through and how fast does that move through will determine if we get some of the higher totals.

So the models are giving us a road map and we just need to adjust totals as the systems play out starting on Thursday.

Are you ready to throw some numbers out? As you know, I like 3" is a good avg for the area.

Les your 3 inch total looks good. I know most likely somebody will get hit with both rounds and 6 inches is not out of the question as the amount of moisture like you mentioned I believe yesterday is way up there as we are getting moisture from the GOM which is loaded and the the system out west has moisture from the pacific. Models try and give a more broad area of totals and what I mean is say they show 2-4 in a general area but finer details which is never easy until the storm or storms develop. That is why someone may get 1.5 while another place 5 inches and though both outside the forecast it really is still good well before the storm. No doubt some localized flooding and then we will see next week how the bigger body's of water are doing.

[MVWxObserver]

WHIO at 11 PM showed 2.21" for Greenville so that's much better.

Currently 50 and progged to hold steady there into part of the Thurs AM hours.

[MVWxObserver]

Latest thinking form the boys:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Additional showers and some thunderstorms will develop during
the day on Thursday and continuing into Thursday night as a
frontal boundary moves into and then meanders near the region.
There is another potential for some isolated hail during the day
on Thursday as well. Again most of the hail is expected to be
sub-severe however cannot rule out isolated hail closer to
severe criteria. Rainfall will become more enhanced Thursday
night and due to this have the flood watch starting Thursday
evening.

High temperatures on Thursday will rise into the 60s and 70s.
There will be a wide range in temperatures Thursday night
depending on location with respect to the boundary with
temperatures dropping into the 30s across the north and 50s
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main concern at the start of the extended period will be a nearly
surface boundary that will likely be positioned near the Ohio River.
Guidance suggests showers will continue at times along this
boundary.

Main mid-level energy will arrive Friday evening into Friday night.
The west-east front across the south will begin to slowly move north
as a southerly LLJ of 50+ knots shifts perpendicularly over it. This
will allow PWATs near or exceeding the climatological maximum
(around 1.2") across the middle Ohio River Valley. With warm cloud
depths of around 10kft, several factors will be in place for
efficient heavy rainfall. This supports flood/flash flood potential
and the recently-issued flash flood watch extending into Saturday.
Biggest region of concern based on current guidance is the Tri-State
region due to both high QPF and ground-based factors (terrain and
soil moisture).

Occlusion moves the widespread precipitation to the east Saturday...
however the cold front and surface low will likely still be lagging
to the west. GFS and NAM each show surface-based instability peaking
in the 500-1000J range from midday into the late afternoon,
especially across south-central OH and northeast KY. Will need to
watch this closely as guidance becomes more focused. The other
concern on Saturday will be gusty winds. Both NAM and GFS show steep
lapse rates through the low-levels along with 50-60 knot LLJ at
850mb. Amount of sky cover will be an important factor in
determining how well these strong winds translate down to the
surface. Will keep wind potential in the HWO and add an isolated
severe storm threat in the southeast.

With regard to 40 to 50 mph gusts Sat is no leafage yet on trees as the rain could make for some loose rooting.

[tron777]

Good morning all! I'm up to 0.03" since midnight. 60 currently this morning, very mild! 70 shouldn't be a problem due to the warm start. Heavy rains appear to be scattered today and mainly northern posters. As the front sags south later, then everyone gets hit this evening and tonight. Wet tomorrow as well with periods of heavy rain continuing esp Cincy and south. Then we finally taper off on Saturday once the low moves thru. Very windy on Saturday too with gusts to 40 mph likely. Not sure if we'll see a wind advisory issued for Sat but would not shock me if it did. Flood Watch obviously issued as everyone knows. We shall see what the totals are soon and then Sun night into Monday is our next rain maker to keep an eye on. We'll need to watch river levels next week for sure.

[Bgoney]

No changes in the forecast as far as I can tell . 1-3” for all of AVland With scattered pockets of 4-5” amount totals through Saturday

[tpweather]

Good Morning and what changed overnight concerning the upcoming event. The cold front is so key to the first round Thursday evening and Friday morning. The trend overnight imo is the front stalls a tad further north. How far north may be measured less than 50 miles but that can make a big difference in getting 1-2 inches or getting in some of the heavier rainfall totals that could end up in the 4-6 inch range.

Les since the front today looks a couple hours slower getting to 70 like you mentioned is more likely. Where does the front put on the brakes will determine the heaviest rain overnight. Then we have the low out to the west getting stronger which pushes the front northward on Friday and we get a lull in the rain before it starts back up Friday night with the approach of the low.

[tron777]

New This Week in Weather from DT:

[cloudy72]

Current temp 60 in my hood. Had some rumbles of thunder earlier this morning and so far 0.26" event total. Ordered one of those official CoCoRaHS rain gauges that should come today...hopefully before the next batch of rain, but perfect timing for the downpours coming!!

[tron777]

Awesome Mike! I'd be curious to see how the accuracy of the CoCoRaHS rain gauge is when compared to your Davis one.

[tron777]

12Z HRRR has the Cincy Metro getting clipped by some storms early this afternoon. Main show is still this evening onwards. 12Z NAM keeps everything north of Cincy until this evening. NAM has us in the 2.25 to 2.5" range while 4"+ is well NW over Indiana. The HRRR nails LOU to Cincy to ILN corridor with a solid 4-5" of rain.

[cloudy72]

FYI - KIND radar will be down until 3/29 for SLEP generator replacement.

[tron777]

FYI - KIND radar will be down until 3/29 for SLEP generator replacement.

Great timing!

[tron777]

Wonder if the HRRR isn't correct at least for this afternoon? Storms have already developed over ILL and have now pushed into Western IN. Need to keep an eye on those.

[tron777]

Update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will move
across the area through early afternoon. Severe weather is not
expected this time, however cannot rule out some isolated small
hail. Moving later into the afternoon and through the remainder
of the near term, expect a line of showers and storms to develop
along a frontal boundary pushing through the region. Cannot rule
out isolated strong to severe weather as the frontal boundary
moves through. Outside of thunderstorm activity, expect gusty
winds at times through the near term. Before the boundary moves
through high temperatures are expected to rise into the 60s and
70s.

[Trevor]

10:50am radar update shows storms over western and central Indiana. There’s even a thunderstorm warning just south of Indy. Movement is east so if they hold together, things may get a bit noisy here in a few hours.