Absolute Vorticity

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:47 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:31 pm Those GFS totals equate to 2"per hr for 4 hrs. A true Christmas miracle??

I know that seems far fetched, but I’ve seen a few public safety videos already, where it was snowing so hard and the wind caused them not be be able to see past the hood of their cars. Like this one-



That roar reminds me of a hurricane.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:12 pm Remember the 120 knot jet streak I mentioned? Models that give us better totals strengthen the jet streak as it roars thru TN and SKY at around 145 knots! Tremendous lift expected behind the arctic front tonight.

mikeyp wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:09 pm Euro seems to cut down on the sustained winds Hamilton county on south but nice snow

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:14 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:12 pm Remember the 120 knot jet streak I mentioned? Models that give us better totals strengthen the jet streak as it roars thru TN and SKY at around 145 knots! Tremendous lift expected behind the arctic front tonight.

Les we have been talking about this for the last two days and that jet is stronger than the jet stream with the 78 blizzard. Again we have went over why its not the 78 blizzard but there are certain things that are similar.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:17 pm Checking 700 MB moisture and the snow shower machine should continue on and off for Friday and on Christmas Eve as well. Additional accumulations are expected with this activity. Temps in the single digits. Wow! The worst snow will be this evening and into tonight with lighter, but still impactful snows for a couple extra days. With winds 40-50 mph Fri and 30 mph on Sat the conditions are going to be tough. I think this is how it's going to play out. Too much data now supporting this.

Still love 2-4" with isolated higher amounts tonight as we've discussed. Then add on an additional 1-2" over the Fri and Sat period for a storm total of 3-6" by Christmas Morning. Obviously, we're not going to measure this as discussed so I will use the Big 3 sites: CVG, DAY, and CMH for verification. This is my FINAL CALL and I feel very confident about it.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:17 pm Checking 700 MB moisture and the snow shower machine should continue on and off for Friday and on Christmas Eve as well. Additional accumulations are expected with this activity. Temps in the single digits. Wow! The worst snow will be this evening and into tonight with lighter, but still impactful snows for a couple extra days. With winds 40-50 mph Fri and 30 mph on Sat the conditions are going to be tough. I think this is how it's going to play out. Too much data now supporting this.

Still love 2-4" with isolated higher amounts tonight as we've discussed. Then add on an additional 1-2" over the Fri and Sat period for a storm total of 3-6" by Christmas Morning. Obviously, we're not going to measure this as discussed so I will use the Big 3 sites: CVG, DAY, and CMH for verification. This is my FINAL CALL and I feel very confident about it.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:17 pm Checking 700 MB moisture and the snow shower machine should continue on and off for Friday and on Christmas Eve as well. Additional accumulations are expected with this activity. Temps in the single digits. Wow! The worst snow will be this evening and into tonight with lighter, but still impactful snows for a couple extra days. With winds 40-50 mph Fri and 30 mph on Sat the conditions are going to be tough. I think this is how it's going to play out. Too much data now supporting this.

Still love 2-4" with isolated higher amounts tonight as we've discussed. Then add on an additional 1-2" over the Fri and Sat period for a storm total of 3-6" by Christmas Morning. Obviously, we're not going to measure this as discussed so I will use the Big 3 sites: CVG, DAY, and CMH for verification. This is my FINAL CALL and I feel very confident about it.

Hey Les - I like your call on this! Will definitely be an impactful storm no matter what happens.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:51 pm 17z HRRR has it going from 43 at 9pm in DAY to -7 at 6am Friday (with a wind chill of -30!!)!

cincy bud wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:05 pm Getting very foggy here in N Butler Co and S. Preble Co.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:17 pm Checking 700 MB moisture and the snow shower machine should continue on and off for Friday and on Christmas Eve as well. Additional accumulations are expected with this activity. Temps in the single digits. Wow! The worst snow will be this evening and into tonight with lighter, but still impactful snows for a couple extra days. With winds 40-50 mph Fri and 30 mph on Sat the conditions are going to be tough. I think this is how it's going to play out. Too much data now supporting this.

Still love 2-4" with isolated higher amounts tonight as we've discussed. Then add on an additional 1-2" over the Fri and Sat period for a storm total of 3-6" by Christmas Morning. Obviously, we're not going to measure this as discussed so I will use the Big 3 sites: CVG, DAY, and CMH for verification. This is my FINAL CALL and I feel very confident about it.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:06 pm

cincy bud wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:05 pm Getting very foggy here in N Butler Co and S. Preble Co.

Warmer air coming up over the colder ground. That'll mix out once the front gets closer.

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:09 pm With so much energy is there a chance of thunder snow?

cincy bud wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:06 pm

cincy bud wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:05 pm Getting very foggy here in N Butler Co and S. Preble Co.

Warmer air coming up over the colder ground. That'll mix out once the front gets closer.

Just giving you a report of a change.