Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning and some much needed rain to clean off the streets coming your way. No doubt the southeast ridge has gotten strong and quickly. This will keep the first wave of rain like Bgoney mentioned to the west. The later Friday and Saturday a wave hits the heart of the tri-state and then probably a 3rd wave which will hit folks harder to the southeast. This really is good as this should keep in flooding concerns low for the weekend. Rainfall totals and interesting with the 3 waves and somebody in the area will get unlucky with less rainfall of course but where that is tbd. I believe around 1 inch seems like a likely amount but a bigger range is needed . Going .5- 1.5 locally and tell you the truth this seems like a good range for all folks in the Ohio Valley. Then a nice break Sunday and Monday and hopefully dry for the Bengals game.

I agree Tim... the flooding concerns aren't with this first system. We'll have to see what happens in early January with that 3-4th system to see how much more additional rain is added.

12Z GFS continues the theme of the SE Ridge winning tomorrow. I can't rule out a few showers as far East as Cincy Fri morning but otherwise, the majority of the rain is over in our NW counties. After midnight Fri night and into the day on NYE, everyone is getting wet as the next wave moves up along the front. My post is done for a while as the GFS has now stalled at Hour 51. Can't continue with my analysis until we see some more.

GFS took an early lunch break

Only 0.91" at CVG event total Fri / NYE. So that's better looking. Looks like it's over by 7 or 8pm in Cincy. Longer to the NE, quicker to the SW.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 29, 2022 11:50 am Only 0.91" at CVG event total Fri / NYE. So that's better looking. Looks like it's over by 7 or 8pm in Cincy. Longer to the NE, quicker to the SW.

That seems fair and I believe 1 inch is going to be a common total and again went .5- 1.5 across the Ohio Valley as the waves look progressive which also makes sense with a positive NAO. What happens early next week will also need to be looked at and see where the NAO is at that time as well

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 29, 2022 12:03 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 29, 2022 11:50 am Only 0.91" at CVG event total Fri / NYE. So that's better looking. Looks like it's over by 7 or 8pm in Cincy. Longer to the NE, quicker to the SW.

That seems fair and I believe 1 inch is going to be a common total and again went .5- 1.5 across the Ohio Valley as the waves look progressive which also makes sense with a positive NAO. What happens early next week will also need to be looked at and see where the NAO is at that time as well

I agree... I'd go progressive with the next couple of systems, no doubt. The Pacific jet is strong. We are waiting on it to retract per our January discussion thread.

Good afternoon all. 60 IMBY for the high today, WOW! Another overachieving day in the temp dept. All snow and ice is gone minus dirty piles and any shaded areas. It sure went fast didn't it? We had windchills in the -30s and now we're skyrocketed into the U50s to near 60 degrees just 6 days later. An amazing turnaround in the pattern.

12Z Euro is in and for Fri and NYE, same ole song and dance. Light rain Fri as the bulk of it stays to the West as we've talked about. Fri night and NYE is the wettest period. Love the timing on when the rain ends on this run! For CVG, it's over by 4-5pm. Love that timing if it holds. The earlier the better for my plans. Totals at CVG are coming in at 0.86"

No changes overnight, main rain shield stays to our west today with just spotty showers here. Rains pick up overnight ending PM saturday. Hanging with the ranges of .50-1.25" near and north of 71 and further south away from 71 .40-.75"

Good morning all! I also like how the rain ends for Cincy around 4pm. Love seeing that trend holding for NYE.

The garbage man finally came this morning! Horrayyyy after 2 weeks of piling up garbage in my garage. It's the little things in life. Also seeing some sun here. A really nice morning outside honestly as the wind hasn't even picked up yet.

12Z NAM is really fast with getting the rain out on NYE like around 2pm.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 30, 2022 10:19 am 12Z NAM is really fast with getting the rain out on NYE like around 2pm.

Les I would not be surprised as these waves are moving rather quickly.This may end up cutting totals down as well. The good or bad thing is the GOM is not getting hit hard so there will be plenty of moisture to fuel next weeks storm. That one does look to have a decent low pressure and plenty of moisture to work with.

12Z GFS has it outta here by 4pm or so. Love seeing these trends for my plans to grill a deer tender loin!

So far 12z suite lowering some of those higher totals for Saturday they had previously, I was figuring they were overdoing the qpf for this particularly setup

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 30, 2022 11:24 am So far 12z suite lowering some of those higher totals for Saturday they had previously, I was figuring they were overdoing the qpf for this particularly setup

My thought process was showing 3 waves hitting the Ohio Valley and if you were in the correct spot and got hit by 2 of the waves you could get the higher totals but these waves look to be moving faster than shown before and with a positive NAO systems will just move along with the quick jet. So will need to keep the totals the same but may need to trim the higher numbers later today.

Agreed guys... looking like a half inch now for the max ceiling.

65 IMBY! It feels pretty nice outside, I won't lie! 63 at the Boone Co mesonet and CVG checking in at 63. The record at CVG is 65 degrees set back in 1875 and 1964.

EDIT: Max 6 hourly temp at CVG is 64. Can we get 2 more degrees out of it? Clouds aren't far away.

12Z Euro coming in with a 1/2" of rain for CVG and love the end time of around 2 or 3pm on NYE.

Clouds pretty thick here. EU coming in also knocking doen those higher qpf . I'll stick with my range totals , minimums should be reached .

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 30, 2022 1:07 pm Clouds pretty thick here. EU coming in also knocking doen those higher qpf . I'll stick with my range totals , minimums should be reached .

I like a half inch on avg. Some will be more, others less.

64 might be it at CVG now that the clouds have taken over. We'll see...

CVG Tied the record of 65! DAY tied theirs of 63. CMH broke it! 65 beating the old record of 63 set back in 1964.

0.26" at CVG so far, 0.27" here. Down to 54 degrees. One more band to go with the backedge already approaching Central IN. Should be done right on schedule with those earlier models.

No doubt a rainy morning into early afternoon. Should end up with 1/2 to 2/3 of rainfall before all is said and done. The heavier end of the forecast did not pan out but the lower numbers are good and many folks in Indiana around the 1 inch mark so a nice rain for most folks and hopefully the ground is thawed out for the heavier amounts of rain due in here next week.