Absolute Vorticity

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 9:09 am

Not been a good month for solar panels

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 2:37 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 9:09 am

Not been a good month for solar panels

My previous neighbors put those in about 2 year ago. Not sure what the savings are besides the tax credits

Here's an update for tomorrow on what the boys are thinking:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Tuesday, models are in decent agreement in the track of the
mid level low and its associated surface low and cold front.
Large scale ascent ahead of the mid level low and low level
convergence in the lower levels will result in a banded
precipitation axis that will pivot east/southeast through the
region. Surface temperature and timing of the precipitation will
be critical to p-type. If the precipitation arrives slightly
faster, then a brief period of freezing rain and/or sleet may
occur before the atmosphere "turns over" and supports more of a
rain and snow mix. If a brief freezing rain period occurs, it
may leave a light glaze on elevated surfaces as road
temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing. For snow,
there could be some minor accumulations on grassy/elevated
surfaces, especially where local dynamic cooling allow for a
quick accumulation. The wintry mix, rain/snow will be more
slated for locations north of the Ohio River. Highs will range
from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south.

For Tuesday night, as the mid level low pivots southeast into
the eastern Tennessee Valley, its associated surface low and
cold front will move southeast as well, passing across the
middle Ohio Valley. Although widespread/heavier precipitation
should be located to the east/and south, shallow moisture will
remain. And with the prospects of weak lift in this shallow
layer lingering, there will be a chance of drizzle overnight.
If the drizzle lingers by the time surface temperatures reach
freezing, then freezing drizzle could occur. For now, will keep
freezing drizzle out of the forecast, but will need to fine tune
it as new data arrives.

18Z NAM is showing a frz rain to rain scenario south of the river and frz rain to snow ending as some drizzle for folks north of the river. The 18Z HRRR is primarily snow for most folks with an inch plus possible. RGEM has some rain south / maybe mixed with some snow and mainly snow to the north. Global models aren't as gung ho about this as the hi-res models are. We'll see as usual what happens tomorrow with this system.

18Z GFS has rain south and snow to rain north. I think what will happen... it'll be like the last system. For the folks who see snow, it'll be driven by dynamic cooling again so you need heavy precip rates. Could see grassy accum and a car topper again. Frz rain if we see any of that, it would be bridges, elevated roadways etc... cars, driveway, porch, that kind of thing. I really don't expect any issues from this, maybe minor ones in some areas, esp. north where it should be a bit cooler. We'll have to see the timing of the precip too. I am thinking late morning into the early afternoon for snow then changing to light rain. This would be for the Cincy area. Earlier to the north and west, later in the south and east. That sort of thing.

50s into Canada

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 5:19 pm 50s into Canada

You just hate to see that in January.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 29, 2024 5:19 pm 50s into Canada




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That is wild and west of their in Alaska temps in the -40 - 60 range and saw some wind chills over -70 yesterday. Mother Nature must balance things out in her own way and she has had a very busy winter.

Concerning any headaches with the weather moving in on Tuesday. Not a big concern though the time period I see as being the most likely to have problems is in the 4-8pm Tuesday evening. Precip with rain/snow showers could be on the increase and temps starting to drop. Again we have been rather mild though the last day or two getting colder. Not sure exactly how cold surface temps will be but that is the period I see as having some minor issues on the road.

I am glad to see the precip hold off while I run more errands this morning. 31 degrees here. Action closing in on Central IN at this time.

Currently 31 here in G'ville and progged for around 35 today.

Both CVG / DAY got to 37 and CMH 36 yesterday.

Seeing more of a snow signal and less of an ice and rain for p-type on 12Z Hires guidance. HRRR, NAM. This is from a Boone, Kenton, Campbell line on north. Rain to the south. 33 / 30 IMBY... 31 / 31 at CVG. Looking at the upper level temps this morning and 850s are above above zero and 925's are borderline at CVG so you definitely will need heavy precip rates to get it done for snow. Accum will be minor unless it comes down hard for at least 30 mins. Then you'd have a chance at a light covering. 540 line running over NKY at this time and we can wet bulb down to 31 per meso analysis.

The boys have this to say:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Model solutions generally similar with mid level low over the
Upper MS Valley digging southeast into Indiana today and then
across the Ohio Valley tonight. A band of precipitation ahead
of the mid level low is currently over Indiana and will push
east into ILN/s western counties mid to late morning and then
into Central Ohio this afternoon.

Based on surface temperatures below freezing at the onset of the
pcpn across Eastern Indiana and West Central Ohio - have the
potential for a brief period of freezing rain, prior to
transitioning to a rain and snow mix. Any freezing rain will be
very light. With roads temperatures above freezing, any light
glaze would be limited to elevated surfaces.

The wintry mix, rain/snow looks to remain north of the Ohio
River. Any snow accumulation will be minor on grassy/elevated
surfaces with the highest totals up to a half inch over West
Central Ohio.

Clouds and pcpn will limit diurnal rise to temperatures today
with highs ranging from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s
south.

Some light snow falling. Working hard to saturate the column.

Edit: Sleet now the dominate p-type.

Nothing but light rain here. 34 / 30. 33 / 32 at CVG with light rain.

0.05" of QPF at CVG.

Snowing in Wilmington

weatherbeast45107 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2024 1:14 pm Snowing in Wilmington

Awesome!

Switched to snow here about an hour ago. Ground is white. Pavement just wet.

Has been snowing off and on here in Greenville since about the noon hour.

Currently 33 here as a last small band comes through.

CVG reached 36, DAY 35 and CMH 39 today.

Incredible wet Januarys three years in a row in 49-50-51. Wonder what ENSO was in those years? Not that it matters a whole lot because strong Elnino’s are supposed to give us below normal precipitation for January

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 5:35 am Incredible wet Januarys three years in a row in 49-50-51. Wonder what ENSO was in those years? Not that it matters a whole lot because strong Elnino’s are supposed to give us below normal precipitation for January




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51-52 was a moderate Nino and 52-53 was a weak Nino. 50-51 was a Nino I suspect... Top 5 snow year at CVG. Ranked #4 when 39.4" fell on the season. Nino's ain't what they used to be!

CVG / DAY got to 41 and CMH 39 today.