Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 3:14 pm
My Mom is sick too and the local Dr. office is so busy right now, she had to get a virtual visit online. I think a lot of sicknesses are running around right now. Hopefully, we all start to feel better soon!

Prayers to your mom as well Les for a quick recovery!

Not sure why there is no dense fog advisory for us - very thick fog is pretty widespread. Someone asleep at the wheel at ILN?

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:06 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:28 am 00z GFS shows a total bomb of a low for the end of week two. Very strong cold front and a blast of frigid air for the first time this season.

Good morning Trev. It looks fairly boring until then, unless something pops up in the short term of course. This is the first time all season that I can recall that the GFS actually is showing the system on multiple runs. Even the 6Z run has it, albeit a weaker version so it's more SE and a snowier outcome for us. Of course this will change over and over again assuming we don't lose the storm. A big bomb cyclone that is a cutter would not surprise me. It fits the pattern then it should unleash a real wintry pattern behind it for the second half of January and into February per our original seasonal outlooks.

I had thought the pattern change would occur a bit sooner but without a big, strong cutter, it won't happen. We need a cutter to pull down the cold air then proper blocking to give it staying power. I am with you, I favor a cutter during this time frame.

A requisite for a vast majority of pattern changes is a bomb cyclone of sorts. And usually bomb cyclones are cutters in our region.

I hear you dce, I don’t enjoy posting all the record breaking warmth stats, but I can’t not post something just because I don’t like it. Speaking of which this needs to be posted again because if there is a top ten sad post of record breaking warmth this year(and there was a lot to choose from), it’s probably the low of 15 for the calendar year which crushed previous records .

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:39 am I hear you dce, I don’t enjoy posting all the record breaking warmth stats, but I can’t not post something just because I don’t like it. Speaking of which this needs to be posted again because if there is a top ten sad post of record breaking warmth this year(and there was a lot to choose from), it’s probably the low of 15 for the calendar year which crushed previous records .


IMG_1061.jpeg

Record-breaking warmth in December is something I hammered on pretty heavily in my December outlook. It has panned out well (unfortunately for snow prospects).

The bomb has been showing up on the GFS in some form since 12z yesterday so it is something to watch going forward.

Last week’s swarm of record warmth

dce wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:06 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:28 am 00z GFS shows a total bomb of a low for the end of week two. Very strong cold front and a blast of frigid air for the first time this season.

Good morning Trev. It looks fairly boring until then, unless something pops up in the short term of course. This is the first time all season that I can recall that the GFS actually is showing the system on multiple runs. Even the 6Z run has it, albeit a weaker version so it's more SE and a snowier outcome for us. Of course this will change over and over again assuming we don't lose the storm. A big bomb cyclone that is a cutter would not surprise me. It fits the pattern then it should unleash a real wintry pattern behind it for the second half of January and into February per our original seasonal outlooks.

I have to start wondering what the records are for the latest 1 inch snowfalls at the big three climate stations across our area. If we get something in the next two weeks we are probably safe from hitting records. After that I do not know. It's so very sad that we have another year we have to talk about these unwanted type records. Half of climatological winter is going to have gone by with no snow yet again.

It's been a tough start to winter. No doubt about it. Many businesses are suffering economically especially those in the north who depend on the winter to get them thru the rest of the year. North American snow cover is at its lowest point in 20 or 30 years! It's amazing and not in a good way. In our area, it is usually either feast or famine. We can catch up quick with a big storm. Or we usually nickel and dime our way. I sure hope something changes and soon. I mean the pattern is changing even if we don't see the desired results in our sensible weather. That's what a lot of people don't understand. Most people don't think the pattern has changed until it snows in their own backyards and I get it. But from a 500 MB stand point (the upper levels) is what helps to produce the weather we see at the surface where we live.

So far, the current stats look like this:

CVG - 0.8" (-3.6")
DAY - 0.8" (-4.2")
CMH - 0.4" (-5.2")

It is pretty sad as we both know. To answer your question, I am not sure what our records are for that. The normal 1st 1" of snow at CVG is 12/14 so we are only 2 weeks behind. At DAY, it is 12/7, and at CMH it is 12/11.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:26 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 3:14 pm
My Mom is sick too and the local Dr. office is so busy right now, she had to get a virtual visit online. I think a lot of sicknesses are running around right now. Hopefully, we all start to feel better soon!

Prayers to your mom as well Les for a quick recovery!

Thank you Mike! Appreciate it. I am a little better today but still have a ways to go.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:36 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:06 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:28 am 00z GFS shows a total bomb of a low for the end of week two. Very strong cold front and a blast of frigid air for the first time this season.

Good morning Trev. It looks fairly boring until then, unless something pops up in the short term of course. This is the first time all season that I can recall that the GFS actually is showing the system on multiple runs. Even the 6Z run has it, albeit a weaker version so it's more SE and a snowier outcome for us. Of course this will change over and over again assuming we don't lose the storm. A big bomb cyclone that is a cutter would not surprise me. It fits the pattern then it should unleash a real wintry pattern behind it for the second half of January and into February per our original seasonal outlooks.

I had thought the pattern change would occur a bit sooner but without a big, strong cutter, it won't happen. We need a cutter to pull down the cold air then proper blocking to give it staying power. I am with you, I favor a cutter during this time frame.

A requisite for a vast majority of pattern changes is a bomb cyclone of sorts. And usually bomb cyclones are cutters in our region.

Yeah, we sure do need a big storm to change up the pattern for sure. I noticed on the 6Z GFS, we get no big cold plunge after that storm, since it was weaker, just to prove your point.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:52 am

dce wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:06 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:28 am 00z GFS shows a total bomb of a low for the end of week two. Very strong cold front and a blast of frigid air for the first time this season.

Good morning Trev. It looks fairly boring until then, unless something pops up in the short term of course. This is the first time all season that I can recall that the GFS actually is showing the system on multiple runs. Even the 6Z run has it, albeit a weaker version so it's more SE and a snowier outcome for us. Of course this will change over and over again assuming we don't lose the storm. A big bomb cyclone that is a cutter would not surprise me. It fits the pattern then it should unleash a real wintry pattern behind it for the second half of January and into February per our original seasonal outlooks.

I have to start wondering what the records are for the latest 1 inch snowfalls at the big three climate stations across our area. If we get something in the next two weeks we are probably safe from hitting records. After that I do not know. It's so very sad that we have another year we have to talk about these unwanted type records. Half of climatological winter is going to have gone by with no snow yet again.

It's been a tough start to winter. No doubt about it. Many businesses are suffering economically especially those in the north who depend on the winter to get them thru the rest of the year. North American snow cover is at its lowest point in 20 or 30 years! It's amazing and not in a good way. In our area, it is usually either feast or famine. We can catch up quick with a big storm. Or we usually nickel and dime our way. I sure hope something changes and soon. I mean the pattern is changing even if we don't see the desired results in our sensible weather. That's what a lot of people don't understand. Most people don't think the pattern has changed until it snows in their own backyards and I get it. But from a 500 MB stand point (the upper levels) is what helps to produce the weather we see at the surface where we live.

So far, the current stats look like this:

CVG - 0.8" (-3.6")
DAY - 0.8" (-4.2")
CMH - 0.4" (-5.2")

It is pretty sad as we both know. To answer your question, I am not sure what our records are for that. The normal 1st 1" of snow at CVG is 12/14 so we are only 2 weeks behind. At DAY, it is 12/7, and at CMH it is 12/11.

Very good point regarding the pattern change. A parade of troughs now versus the stagnant zonal pattern. In that respect yes the pattern has changed on schedule. I was more-so honing in on if/when the change to colder will occur.

At CVG, we may not make a top ten warm December, but it is close! At #10, it is 42.39 from 1984. Thru 12/27 we are sitting at 42.1

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:58 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:52 am

dce wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:06 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:28 am 00z GFS shows a total bomb of a low for the end of week two. Very strong cold front and a blast of frigid air for the first time this season.

Good morning Trev. It looks fairly boring until then, unless something pops up in the short term of course. This is the first time all season that I can recall that the GFS actually is showing the system on multiple runs. Even the 6Z run has it, albeit a weaker version so it's more SE and a snowier outcome for us. Of course this will change over and over again assuming we don't lose the storm. A big bomb cyclone that is a cutter would not surprise me. It fits the pattern then it should unleash a real wintry pattern behind it for the second half of January and into February per our original seasonal outlooks.

I have to start wondering what the records are for the latest 1 inch snowfalls at the big three climate stations across our area. If we get something in the next two weeks we are probably safe from hitting records. After that I do not know. It's so very sad that we have another year we have to talk about these unwanted type records. Half of climatological winter is going to have gone by with no snow yet again.

It's been a tough start to winter. No doubt about it. Many businesses are suffering economically especially those in the north who depend on the winter to get them thru the rest of the year. North American snow cover is at its lowest point in 20 or 30 years! It's amazing and not in a good way. In our area, it is usually either feast or famine. We can catch up quick with a big storm. Or we usually nickel and dime our way. I sure hope something changes and soon. I mean the pattern is changing even if we don't see the desired results in our sensible weather. That's what a lot of people don't understand. Most people don't think the pattern has changed until it snows in their own backyards and I get it. But from a 500 MB stand point (the upper levels) is what helps to produce the weather we see at the surface where we live.

So far, the current stats look like this:

CVG - 0.8" (-3.6")
DAY - 0.8" (-4.2")
CMH - 0.4" (-5.2")

It is pretty sad as we both know. To answer your question, I am not sure what our records are for that. The normal 1st 1" of snow at CVG is 12/14 so we are only 2 weeks behind. At DAY, it is 12/7, and at CMH it is 12/11.

Very good point regarding the pattern change. A parade of troughs now versus the stagnant zonal pattern. In that respect yes the pattern has changed on schedule. I was more-so honing in on if/when the change to colder will occur.

Thanks and yes I know what you meant. I think that was the point Doug was making as well.

Sustained cold in our region is hard to come by during an El Nino, especially a more significant one. But as you have mentioned many times, we don't need super sustained cold, just cold enough to get snow. In all reality that is how it usually goes around here anyways when we get a big one. Temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s. If we are in the ice box, then suppression city but we can do well with clippers in that regime.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:28 am 00z GFS shows a total bomb of a low for the end of week two. Very strong cold front and a blast of frigid air for the first time this season.

Trevor, I take it that once that cold front passes (according to how it looks on this map atm) that we'll have lows of 5-10 above and highs of 25-30? That would be cold that a lot of us haven't experienced since the Arctic outbreak a year ago! it'll be a shock to our system for sure!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:59 am At CVG, we may not make a top ten warm December, but it is close! At #10, it is 42.39 from 1984. Thru 12/27 we are sitting at 42.1

Already had this in the que

Good Morning and a small amount of light rain and 33 here. Almost always when you have record warmth there will be record cold in another area of the world and that is exactly what happened in December. Two extremes is the northern plains and upper mid-west with record warmth and then northern China with record cold. Droughts and floods similar.

Concerning a possible bigger storm in January and my guess is we will have one but when and where is way too early and models when they get so far out usually go to the mean. I agree normally for us to get into a colder pattern you need that big cutter to help bring down the cold and one where it stays go for a longer term. Already we are starting to see the cold more on this side of the planet in Alaska and western,central and northern Canada. Snow cover will add up hopefully north and west over the next 10 days to aid in the cold air moving southward.

I still believe at the end of the day eastward with these storms are more likely because I am not seeing a big southeast ridge and with the STJ still moving right along its going to hard for that ridge to build in the eastern USA. Even though the cold has been average kind of cold at best in the arctic regions we have seen those spokes of cold to be very cold in lower latitudes.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:51 am Last week’s swarm of record warmth




IMG_1133.gif

Bgoney, there isn't a lot of blues and greens showing up on this map with the exception of China! Wow, is all I can say!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:06 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:28 am 00z GFS shows a total bomb of a low for the end of week two. Very strong cold front and a blast of frigid air for the first time this season.

Trevor, I take it that once that cold front passes (according to how it looks on this map atm) that we'll have lows of 5-10 above and highs of 25-30? That would be cold that a lot of us haven't experienced since the Arctic outbreak a year ago! it'll be a shock to our system for sure!

Verbatim (00z GFS) it would likely be colder than that. Highs in the teens, lows similar to what you said, maybe near 0.

I know everyone will keep up on the latest models and I will continue to watch patterns around the world. I look at the current weather, changes which are occurring and then I look at the models to see if they agree with what I am seeing. Sometimes when the models match what I see then I feel much more confident in a forecast. Then when the two don't match more homework needed. Concerning El Nino and some parts of the world have turned out more what we have seen in past El Nino's at this strength but other parts of the world almost the exact opposite of what you normally see. I don't have the answers on why this is happening and again those may not be answered before this episode is done.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:09 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:51 am Last week’s swarm of record warmth




IMG_1133.gif

Bgoney, there isn't a lot of blues and greens showing up on this map with the exception of China! Wow, is all I can say!

Yep , the commies have commandeered the cold all winter. Winning the cold war

Comparing last year’s fall/winter drought to this year’s. About the same for the OV and worse for the TV and southern coast. Still indicative of a non existent SEridge

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 10:37 am Comparing last year’s fall/winter drought to this year’s. About the same for the OV and worse for the TV and southern coast. Still indicative of a non existent SEridge




IMG_1136.pngIMG_1137.png

Quite funny. We get a southeast ridge and it's too warm for snow. No southeast ridge and it's too warm for snow.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 10:37 am Comparing last year’s fall/winter drought to this year’s. About the same for the OV and worse for the TV and southern coast. Still indicative of a non existent SEridge




IMG_1136.pngIMG_1137.png

We did break out of the drought this past Jan-Mar but having above normal rainfall in the winter is usually not a way to end droughts. California has problems because the rainy season is in the winter and many reasons you see plenty of fires starting in later summer and the fall season.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 9:01 am Sustained cold in our region is hard to come by during an El Nino, especially a more significant one. But as you have mentioned many times, we don't need super sustained cold, just cold enough to get snow. In all reality that is how it usually goes around here anyways when we get a big one. Temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s. If we are in the ice box, then suppression city but we can do well with clippers in that regime.

I sure did miss a good ole fashioned clipper pattern. Those just seem to be non-existent anymore.