Absolute Vorticity

Good morning all! Another weekend and another chilly Sat morning with a heavy frost. 22 here and at CVG this morning. Full sunshine today and the mid 40s easily. 50s tomorrow with increasing wind and clouds. Cannot rule out a small shower chance on Pres Day but otherwise the 50s continue. Near 60 Tues and in the 60s for Wed. Another small shower chance Tues as well. Best chances for rain come Wed with the warm front and then Thurs with the cold frontal passage. We should spike up into the low 70s again for Thursday as well. By the end of next week, we are back to seasonal temps in the 40s once again. All of your snow in the coming week will be over the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes since they will be north of the baroclinic zone. We of course are south of it and thus the mild temps expected.

I looked at both the 0Z GEFS and EPS and both are in excellent agreement that the very strong Aleutian Ridge just isn't budging. It isn't moving East it isn't going anywhere. It is in a horrible location which is why the cold air and troughs keeping dumping into the West and will continue to do so. Yes we have a -NAO coming late this month into March but IMO it isn't strong enough or West based enough to matter, We need a powerful west based -NAO to help offset the terrible Pacific pattern. Currently, I'm just not seeing that unfortunately. I'll keep an eye on it of course but for now this sucks.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 9:00 am I looked at both the 0Z GEFS and EPS and both are in excellent agreement that the very strong Aleutian Ridge just isn't budging. It isn't moving East it isn't going anywhere. It is in a horrible location which is why the cold air and troughs keeping dumping into the West and will continue to do so. Yes we have a -NAO coming late this month into March but IMO it isn't strong enough or West based enough to matter, We need a powerful west based -NAO to help offset the terrible Pacific pattern. Currently, I'm just not seeing that unfortunately. I'll keep an eye on it of course but for now this sucks.

from what I have looked at so far it looks like we will probably see more seasonal temps late Feb and into March. even the blow torch Jan/ Feb had a couple cold snaps thrown in that lasted a couple days. I feel the pattern coming will be more seasonal March into April

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 9:00 am I looked at both the 0Z GEFS and EPS and both are in excellent agreement that the very strong Aleutian Ridge just isn't budging. It isn't moving East it isn't going anywhere. It is in a horrible location which is why the cold air and troughs keeping dumping into the West and will continue to do so. Yes we have a -NAO coming late this month into March but IMO it isn't strong enough or West based enough to matter, We need a powerful west based -NAO to help offset the terrible Pacific pattern. Currently, I'm just not seeing that unfortunately. I'll keep an eye on it of course but for now this sucks.

Good Morning Les. Wonderful post and yes the -NAO if it occurs may end up helping the northeast and we will be on the outer rim of getting into a better pattern. We may go back to December where the southeast ridge has moved further west and you get the south central ridging which once again will not help us overall. Sure you can get a nice shot or two of cold but once you get into March its not the same as December. If the ridging does move westward this could be bad for the southern plains because this is their rainy season and if the ridging holds tough then rainfall will be less and could see an early start to hot and dry in the southern plains.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 10:56 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 9:00 am I looked at both the 0Z GEFS and EPS and both are in excellent agreement that the very strong Aleutian Ridge just isn't budging. It isn't moving East it isn't going anywhere. It is in a horrible location which is why the cold air and troughs keeping dumping into the West and will continue to do so. Yes we have a -NAO coming late this month into March but IMO it isn't strong enough or West based enough to matter, We need a powerful west based -NAO to help offset the terrible Pacific pattern. Currently, I'm just not seeing that unfortunately. I'll keep an eye on it of course but for now this sucks.

Good Morning Les. Wonderful post and yes the -NAO if it occurs may end up helping the northeast and we will be on the outer rim of getting into a better pattern. We may go back to December where the southeast ridge has moved further west and you get the south central ridging which once again will not help us overall. Sure you can get a nice shot or two of cold but once you get into March its not the same as December. If the ridging does move westward this could be bad for the southern plains because this is their rainy season and if the ridging holds tough then rainfall will be less and could see an early start to hot and dry in the southern plains.

My current thinking is rain, rain and more rain for the most part in the OV. The NE as you said may have some chances, but I don't see much to help us out. That NAO needs to be as west and as strong as it was in December to help fight off the bad Pacific pattern. Too bad the big ridge over the Aleutians couldn't have been closer to the West Coast. That would have changed everything! But it didn't. The Nina shifted from an East based one (which is good) to more Westerly and that is why the Aleutian ridge is where it has been for weeks and weeks. Pretty much a game over pattern for snow lovers. I continue to see absolutely nothing to get excited about unless you like 50s, 60s and rain. Even when the boundary is closer to us that is 40s and rain.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 10:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 9:00 am I looked at both the 0Z GEFS and EPS and both are in excellent agreement that the very strong Aleutian Ridge just isn't budging. It isn't moving East it isn't going anywhere. It is in a horrible location which is why the cold air and troughs keeping dumping into the West and will continue to do so. Yes we have a -NAO coming late this month into March but IMO it isn't strong enough or West based enough to matter, We need a powerful west based -NAO to help offset the terrible Pacific pattern. Currently, I'm just not seeing that unfortunately. I'll keep an eye on it of course but for now this sucks.

from what I have looked at so far it looks like we will probably see more seasonal temps late Feb and into March. even the blow torch Jan/ Feb had a couple cold snaps thrown in that lasted a couple days. I feel the pattern coming will be more seasonal March into April

The -NAO will benefit your area more Charles then it will the Ohio Valley. You absolutely will have some chances down the road. For us, probably not if things hold as modeled.

12Z OP GFS is a perfect example of what I am talking out for those who haven't seen it yet. GEFS aren't done running yet but thru Day 10, not a flake of snow to be found.

The canadian is the only one showing any signs of winter for my area for next weekend. It's getting closer to

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 3:00 pm The canadian is the only one showing any signs of winter for my area for next weekend. It's getting closer to towel.jpg

Euro has a little touch around the 27th too. But nothing concrete, and no truly strong signal. If that Aleutian ridge doesn't change you can definitely throw in the towel. That is what has been killing us.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:16 pm 12Z OP GFS is a perfect example of what I am talking out for those who haven't seen it yet. GEFS aren't done running yet but thru Day 10, not a flake of snow to be found.

I'm doing my part. Ran the gas out of the snowblower and took the blade off of the ATV today. That might temp the snow gods!!

snowbo wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:16 pm 12Z OP GFS is a perfect example of what I am talking out for those who haven't seen it yet. GEFS aren't done running yet but thru Day 10, not a flake of snow to be found.

I'm doing my part. Ran the gas out of the snowblower and took the blade off of the ATV today. That might temp the snow gods!!

The MJO has to get into Phases 8 then 1 or it's game over for the season. Every time the MJO looked to have gotten into Phase 8 per modeling it always fell short. I am remaining very skeptical that we'll see any sort of pattern change. I will be pleasantly surprised if we do see it change but not currently expecting it to do so.

Good morning all! Another warm week ahead as you well know. Best threat for rain is Wednesday. Thursday has a date with the 70s then we're back into the 40s for Friday. Rain returns next weekend. Maybe, just maybe it could start out as a brief mix but I wouldn't count on it. One more potential rain maker to end the month then it is on to Met. Spring even though we've been seeing spring since January.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 6:41 pm

snowbo wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:16 pm 12Z OP GFS is a perfect example of what I am talking out for those who haven't seen it yet. GEFS aren't done running yet but thru Day 10, not a flake of snow to be found.

I'm doing my part. Ran the gas out of the snowblower and took the blade off of the ATV today. That might temp the snow gods!!

The MJO has to get into Phases 8 then 1 or it's game over for the season. Every time the MJO looked to have gotten into Phase 8 per modeling it always fell short. I am remaining very skeptical that we'll see any sort of pattern change. I will be pleasantly surprised if we do see it change but not currently expecting it to do so.

MJO looks to be once again , to no one's surprise weakening as it approaches 8 . We mentioned a while back this would have enough effect on some colder air seeping a bit further south in the plains and midwest but not quite enough south enough to aid in significant wintry fun for the OV through Feb. The lingering LaNina state just will not allow a moderate impulse into the cold phases and deeper advancement of the "cold enough" air. Models going forward with the MJO are all over the place, even more than usual.
Seen evidence for a re-emergence in the IO which probably Is a more likely outcome given its repetitive nature over the last forever

Good Morning and like Les mentioned another mild week. I guess we can talk about flooding and though not expecting anything widespread we are starting to fill up some of the creeks and rivers. Good thing is no snow melt here or upriver. My guess though in a month or so the Mississippi River will have concerns with plenty of snow in southern Canada, northern plains and upper mid-west. Of course this time of year vegetation is not using up much of the water but that will change in March. Still worried about the southern plains getting missed on rainfall and this it the time of year for rain in that area. Without much in the terms of rain it can get hot quickly down there in April and May which could become a early heat wave for the central part of the country in May and that could expand to the Ohio Valley in June. Of course no way of knowing for sure this will happen but early signs brings up this as a possibility. Heading home on Monday and really nice to see a mild week ahead with chances for 70 plus while here in Greenville 80 is possible.

Great posts guys! We are certainly all on the same page. The -NAO may assist the Mid Atl or New England in the coming days but for the OV, it is a much easier forecast. Forecast above normal temps and rain and you've got it in the bag. The rich will keep getting richer for snow which will be MN, Wisc and Northern Michigan.

12Z OP GFS tries to give us a winter storm for 3/3. That is way out there so you know it isn't happening. It is all snow for the I-70 Crew and a wintry mix to snow at CVG. All rain south of there as modeled. But again, you know it won't happen but it is nice to dream.

There is no GEFS support for the OP GFS fantasy as the majority of members have a cold front and the low tracking thru the Upper Midwest and Lakes which makes more sense. Ride the trends.

Good Afternoon and mother nature will try and equal things out but with such a mild Jan-Feb period she is going to be busy. Do I expect some more winter weather around here and the answer is yes. Could be a very raw March coming up with plenty of precip and some of that may fall in the form of snow but the later in the season you hope timing is right and the precip falls at night. March is usually windy but February will be hard to beat this year. Severe weather and that is always tricky and especially Tornado's as you need warm moist air along with cold and yes dry air to work together. So many years the severe forecast has been a bust so not going to say yes or no to a busy severe season because I have no ideal.

56 now at CVG, same thing here. I'd venture to say 60 is reachable due to plenty of sun, a strong SW wind and a dry air mass in place. Dews are in the 20s so it's easy to warm right on up! It's incredible how much nice weather we are having this winter. It's never this nice in the spring since it's usually raining.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 3:39 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 3:00 pm The canadian is the only one showing any signs of winter for my area for next weekend. It's getting closer to towel.jpg

Euro has a little touch around the 27th too. But nothing concrete, and no truly strong signal. If that Aleutian ridge doesn't change you can definitely throw in the towel. That is what has been killing us.

Yep crazy model runs every time. They tease us and take it away.

Got a nice day in progress with some wind gusts between 20 to 30 mph at times. Temp is 56 atm.

This is a long ways out there but around 3/5, the GEFS and GEPS both show the WPO going negative. I don't think we've had a -WPO all winter long. If this is correct and this far away a huge if... It would most certainly help to drive the cold more south and east as it should shove the Aleutian Ridge more east towards the West Coast of North America. I remain skeptical as should you but anyway here you go.

Hey Les I thought we had a brief period back in Dec when the wpo went negative but was a short period of time. I could be wrong but I thought it was negative for a short period.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 19, 2023 3:02 pm Hey Les I thought we had a brief period back in Dec when the wpo went negative but was a short period of time. I could be wrong but I thought it was negative for a short period.

It may have been Tim. That is quite possible. It's hard to remember with all of the warm and snowless weather we've been having.

Currently 54 here in G'ville.

73 and mostly for the Daytona 500 currently in progress and progged to top out at around 77.

NAO forecast from the EPS. It goes negative from 2/28 on.