Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:13 am
Looks about right
Absolute Vorticity
Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
White Christmas Blizzard 2022
Page 33 of 56
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:21 am
QPF continues to increase on the GFS! Why is that happening? It's doing what some of the past Euro runs were doing that had the higher totals. I looked at the 700 MB relative humidity charts on this GFS run and it's awesome! Moisture does get injected and wrapped into this system from that East Coast system. That occurs after midnight tonight onwards. Thus, if correct, we are in the back lash snow shower activity on and off for Friday, Fri night, Christmas Eve and wrapping up by midnight is what this run shows. Wow!
Watch this animation that begins around 7pm this evening as the arctic front comes in and ends Christmas Eve at midnight.
If this is right... IF... this is how we can get an overachiever like the GFS and some past Euro runs have also been showing. We need to keep an eye out for this possibility folks.
Watch this animation that begins around 7pm this evening as the arctic front comes in and ends Christmas Eve at midnight.
If this is right... IF... this is how we can get an overachiever like the GFS and some past Euro runs have also been showing. We need to keep an eye out for this possibility folks.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:25 am
Hows the low tracking?
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:27 am
More MD's for snow squalls and mesoscale banding features over KS, MO, AR, and OK.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2061.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2061.html
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:28 am
I’m throwing this out there, based upon what we talked about yesterday.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:21 am QPF continues to increase on the GFS! Why is that happening? It's doing what some of the past Euro runs were doing that had the higher totals. I looked at the 700 MB relative humidity charts on this GFS run and it's awesome! Moisture does get injected and wrapped into this system from that East Coast system. That occurs after midnight tonight onwards. Thus, if correct, we are in the back lash snow shower activity on and off for Friday, Fri night, Christmas Eve and wrapping up by midnight is what this run shows. Wow!
Watch this animation that begins around 7pm this evening as the arctic front comes in and ends Christmas Eve at midnight.
If this is right... IF... this is how we can get an overachiever like the GFS and some past Euro runs have also been showing. We need to keep an eye out for this possibility folks.
It did get a mainframe update in March of 2021 to double its resolution and be better at forecasting snowfall.
There is a chance that it is the only model capable to ingest and process that much raw data in the time given and not spit it back out half a day later.
This could be why only it and the Euro keep upping the game.
IF the GFS scores on this event, then time to watch it more going forward.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:29 am
From BG issued a couple of hours ago:
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:31 am
We might be seeing a weak low forming down in SE Texas (we'll call it near Houston) which is a great spot. Need a few more hours there to verify this. Second, that East Coast low is down to 1012 MB moving northward with a current location along the SC / NC border along the East Coast.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:33 am
If the storm pans out as projected by those two models then it is an absolute win for the folks who program these things. That's refreshing for a change. I usually bash them.fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:28 amI’m throwing this out there, based upon what we talked about yesterday.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:21 am QPF continues to increase on the GFS! Why is that happening? It's doing what some of the past Euro runs were doing that had the higher totals. I looked at the 700 MB relative humidity charts on this GFS run and it's awesome! Moisture does get injected and wrapped into this system from that East Coast system. That occurs after midnight tonight onwards. Thus, if correct, we are in the back lash snow shower activity on and off for Friday, Fri night, Christmas Eve and wrapping up by midnight is what this run shows. Wow!
Watch this animation that begins around 7pm this evening as the arctic front comes in and ends Christmas Eve at midnight.
If this is right... IF... this is how we can get an overachiever like the GFS and some past Euro runs have also been showing. We need to keep an eye out for this possibility folks.
It did get a mainframe update in March of 2021 to double its resolution and be better at forecasting snowfall.
There is a chance that it is the only model capable to ingest and process that much raw data in the time given and not spit it back out half a day later.
This could be why only it and the Euro keep upping the game.
IF the GFS scores on this event, then time to watch it more going forward.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:36 am
We talk about this as well, but rarely see it- double barrel lows tracking along, upping the moisture flow from the smaller one into the bigger one.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:31 amWe might be seeing a weak low forming down in SE Texas (we'll call it near Houston) which is a great spot. Need a few more hours there to verify this. Second, that East Coast low is down to 1012 MB moving northward with a current location along the SC / NC border along the East Coast.
Maybe the GoM being closed is a good thing this one time?
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:04 pm
I'm thinking the same thing Aaron. We'll know if this is going to overachieve by this evening.fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:36 amWe talk about this as well, but rarely see it- double barrel lows tracking along, upping the moisture flow from the smaller one into the bigger one.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:31 amWe might be seeing a weak low forming down in SE Texas (we'll call it near Houston) which is a great spot. Need a few more hours there to verify this. Second, that East Coast low is down to 1012 MB moving northward with a current location along the SC / NC border along the East Coast.
Maybe the GoM being closed is a good thing this one time?
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:05 pm
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:05 pm
fyrfyter wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:36 amGood thoughts Aarontron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:31 amWe might be seeing a weak low forming down in SE Texas (we'll call it near Houston) which is a great spot. Need a few more hours there to verify this. Second, that East Coast low is down to 1012 MB moving northward with a current location along the SC / NC border along the East Coast.
We talk about this as well, but rarely see it- double barrel lows tracking along, upping the moisture flow from the smaller one into the bigger one.
Maybe the GoM being closed is a good thing this one time?
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:31 pm
Those GFS totals equate to 2"per hr for 4 hrs. A true Christmas miracle??
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:43 pm
Les you are messing with me with this post?tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:31 amWe might be seeing a weak low forming down in SE Texas (we'll call it near Houston) which is a great spot. Need a few more hours there to verify this. Second, that East Coast low is down to 1012 MB moving northward with a current location along the SC / NC border along the East Coast.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:45 pm
I have noticed that Paducah decided to go with a winter storm warning compared to the winter weather advisory. My gut tells me this could also happen to folks south of us in Kentucky. Not all the factors meet criteria but other factors imo warrants the winter storm warning.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:47 pm
I know that seems far fetched, but I’ve seen a few public safety videos already, where it was snowing so hard and the wind caused them not be be able to see past the hood of their cars. Like this one-
That roar reminds me of a hurricane.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:48 pm
Looking like it is forming new NOLA now. 1016 MB. Kind of a broad area of low pressure so nothing too well defined yet. Def continuing to monitor this.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:43 pmLes you are messing with me with this post?tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:31 amWe might be seeing a weak low forming down in SE Texas (we'll call it near Houston) which is a great spot. Need a few more hours there to verify this. Second, that East Coast low is down to 1012 MB moving northward with a current location along the SC / NC border along the East Coast.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:50 pm
Technically the same is happening with us. ILN Southern counties are 4” in 12 hrs or 6” in 24 hrs. No part of the current NWS forecast calls for that, but we are still in a warning.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:45 pm I have noticed that Paducah decided to go with a winter storm warning compared to the winter weather advisory. My gut tells me this could also happen to folks south of us in Kentucky. Not all the factors meet criteria but other factors imo warrants the winter storm warning.
I would say extenuating circumstances are fueling many of these warnings, as in we don’t usually see situations and setups like this.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:51 pm
I have been touting a low in southeast Texas for many days and was alone on that island once again. Was never going to be a strong low down there but it can slow up the front and add more energy to the system. Will continue to monitor that development. Concerning the east coast system and yes what it does for us is keep snow showers in the forecast the next two days as it wraps moisture around the huge low north of us. Never thought would directly affect this evenings weather but I agree about the next two days and can see where we have some snow showers from time to time with temps in the single digits.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:48 pmLooking like it is forming new NOLA now. 1016 MB. Kind of a broad area of low pressure so nothing too well defined yet. Def continuing to monitor this.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:43 pmLes you are messing with me with this post?tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:31 amWe might be seeing a weak low forming down in SE Texas (we'll call it near Houston) which is a great spot. Need a few more hours there to verify this. Second, that East Coast low is down to 1012 MB moving northward with a current location along the SC / NC border along the East Coast.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:53 pm
That is an amazing video. I agree the sound reminds you of a hurricane. BTW where is Jim Cantore with this storm?
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:54 pm
Great information being shared on this site! Given current observations and your interpretation of the short range models. When do you see temps going below freezing today in Hamilton County and how much snow in total? TIA!!!
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:08 pm
Great question and the first question is easy and the second is not so much. I can see temps going below 32 by 9pm at the latest and concerning snowfall totals I have been going with 2-5 inches and no sense changing but the snow is going to be hard to measure with the winds. Also more and more info coming in for snow showers the next 2 days and those are more isolated but with temps barely above 0 any snow shower can give someone a quick inch. Not looked at the models so much but current conditions and radars west of here and no doubt there has been an increase in moisture especially in Missouri working into Illinois. Going to be a fun 6 hours ahead before we start to get cold and then snow.mikegould75 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 12:54 pm Great information being shared on this site! Given current observations and your interpretation of the short range models. When do you see temps going below freezing today in Hamilton County and how much snow in total? TIA!!!
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:09 pm
Euro seems to cut down on the sustained winds Hamilton county on south but nice snow 
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:10 pm
12Z Euro still looking just fine... An easy 0.30" to play with at CVG.
Re: I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas 2022
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:12 pm
Remember the 120 knot jet streak I mentioned? Models that give us better totals strengthen the jet streak as it roars thru TN and SKY at around 145 knots! Tremendous lift expected behind the arctic front tonight.