Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:20 am**

I agree with Bgoney about the different models with amount totals. Euro and Cmc lower than the beefy GFS. Hopefully than gets close together overnight into early Sunday morning.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:22 am**

Have the local stations been looking at our forum lol. Nice to see when the met's from the NWS and local tv stations are on the same page

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:24 am**

I thought I made a comment last night but don't see it. Was hoping for the models to come into agreement. It seems like it really didn't. So far on the 12z runs today it looks like I should have opened a bottle of whiskey up. lol

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:28 am**

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:24 am I thought I made a comment last night but don't see it. Was hoping for the models to come into agreement. It seems like it really didn't. So far on the 12z runs today it looks like I should have opened a bottle of whiskey up. lol

Tim has been looking at CMH very hard and it's a crap shoot. All snow of course but how much moisture is available is the biggest question for your area. 3" to as much as 6"+ is the forecasted window.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:38 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:28 am
young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:24 am I thought I made a comment last night but don't see it. Was hoping for the models to come into agreement. It seems like it really didn't. So far on the 12z runs today it looks like I should have opened a bottle of whiskey up. lol
Tim has been looking at CMH very hard and it's a crap shoot. All snow of course but how much moisture is available is the biggest question for your area. 3" to as much as 6"+ is the forecasted window.

Good morning Les, I was thinking last night as I was talking to someone 4 to 8. But, now I got serious doubts.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:39 am**

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:38 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:28 am
young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:24 am I thought I made a comment last night but don't see it. Was hoping for the models to come into agreement. It seems like it really didn't. So far on the 12z runs today it looks like I should have opened a bottle of whiskey up. lol
Tim has been looking at CMH very hard and it's a crap shoot. All snow of course but how much moisture is available is the biggest question for your area. 3" to as much as 6"+ is the forecasted window.
Good morning Les, I was thinking last night as I was talking to someone 4 to 8. But, now I got serious doubts.

Good morning! That's a good range for now JP. GFS is running now and we'll see the Euro in a couple more hours to hopefully allow us to see how much precip will fall for you guys.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:45 am**

Winds for Monday into Tuesday (gusts)

IMG_2957.jpeg

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:46 am**

Thru 36 hours... 12z GFS is a tick south and 3 MB weaker with the low. Keeps Cincy in the snow longer. 7pm Sunday and it's still snowing with sleet lurking just to the south.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:48 am**

Sleet finally gets to CVG / Cincy in that 10-11pm window. Then by Monday morning back to all snow. Dry slot stays well south of the ILN forecast area. We then get the back end snows on Monday ending late afternoon / early evening depending on your location.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:50 am**

Pretty good run! I would not want to be the met forecasting our area or DC.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:52 am**

12z GFS - I estimate that 7” of this is sleet in Cincy

IMG_0924.jpeg

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:53 am**

For CVG / Cincy, I am digging the idea of 6-8" of snow, then a period of sleet with up to 4" additional snow on Monday on the backside. I don't think this call is out of line. Then for you guys in the sweet spot that remain all snow, 8-12" plus I think is a good call for the N Cincy burbs and S Dayton burbs locals. SE Crew... 2-4" of snow, then sleet with significant frz rain. Accum of 0.25" possible or more of ice. Then up to 4" on the backside for snow on Monday. I-70 Crew... Jackpot is S of the interstate. Amounts start to drop off north of course. Anywhere between 3-6"+ is possible from N to S across this zone. My lowest confidence continues to be the I-70 Crew zones.

Start time for CVG / Cincy should be anytime after 10am Sunday. I've upped the start time by a couple of hours.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:55 am**

My son is trying to fly out of Omaha around 6 pm this evening. Headed to England with a connecting flight in Atlanta. Anyone willing to give me some idea of how much snow Omaha will have by then and whether he will be able to get out?
Thanks for your help…
Thanks!

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:59 am**

12Z GFS text data.

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.1    -3.9    1023      76      97    0.08     557     540    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.7    -2.4    1016      96      98    0.50     556     543    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -4.2     0.6    1009      95      88    0.50     550     543    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.0    -3.0    1007      94      99    0.27     542     537    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.3    -9.5    1009      96      96    0.17     536     529    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.4   -10.5    1017      89      45    0.08     539     526    

HAO

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.0    -4.9    1023      60      96    0.05     556     538    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.0    -4.1    1018      96      98    0.33     555     541    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -4.9    -2.0    1011      95      96    0.40     550     541    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.3    -4.6    1008      94      98    0.22     542     536    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.1    -9.3    1009      96      96    0.20     537     529    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.8   -10.5    1017      86      55    0.07     539     525    

MGY

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -3.9    -6.1    1023      50      96    0.03     556     537    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.2    -4.7    1018      91      97    0.20     555     541    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -2.8    1011      95      99    0.34     550     541    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.8    -4.8    1008      93      99    0.22     542     536    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.2    -9.1    1009      96      97    0.18     537     530    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.3   -10.5    1017      86      55    0.08     538     525    

DAY

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.1    -7.1    1024      47      96    0.01     555     537    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.8    -4.9    1018      77      97    0.10     554     540    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.7    -3.7    1012      95      99    0.28     550     540    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.1    -5.4    1009      93      99    0.23     542     535    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.1    -9.7    1009      96      96    0.12     537     530    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.6   -10.7    1017      86      57    0.05     538     524    

CMH - A much better run for you JP!

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.1    -5.9    1019      66      94    0.03     554     539    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.3    -4.1    1013      92      92    0.15     550     540    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.7    -5.2    1009      94      98    0.26     543     536    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -2.6    -7.8    1008      91      96    0.07     537     531    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.3   -10.2    1015      86      52    0.07     536     525    

FGX

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -3.8    -3.7    1023      82      97    0.07     559     540    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.4    -1.2    1016      96      99    0.53     557     545    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -3.2     3.2    1009      96      98    0.71     553     547    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.3     1.3    1005      96      38    0.07     544     540    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.7    -6.5    1007      96      82    0.05     536     531    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.6    -9.8    1015      92      92    0.08     539     527

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:01 am**

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:55 am My son is trying to fly out of Omaha around 6 pm this evening. Headed to England with a connecting flight in Atlanta. Anyone willing to give me some idea of how much snow Omaha will have by then and whether he will be able to get out?
Thanks for your help…
Thanks!

Per the GFS, he should be fine. Heavier precip misses them to the south.

For Omaha:

Code: Select all

SUN 00Z 05-JAN  -7.9    -7.7    1027      73      98    0.01     557     536    
SUN 06Z 05-JAN  -8.9    -8.3    1027      79      98    0.07     555     534    
SUN 12Z 05-JAN  -9.3   -11.4    1026      64      96    0.05     551     531    
SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -9.3   -12.0    1026      59      95    0.08     548     528    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -9.1   -11.7    1027      56      44    0.13     545     525    
MON 06Z 06-JAN -11.9   -10.7    1029      64      34    0.02     548     525

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:03 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:59 am 12Z GFS text data.

Code: Select all

CVG

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.1    -3.9    1023      76      97    0.08     557     540    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.7    -2.4    1016      96      98    0.50     556     543    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -4.2     0.6    1009      95      88    0.50     550     543    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.0    -3.0    1007      94      99    0.27     542     537    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.3    -9.5    1009      96      96    0.17     536     529    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.4   -10.5    1017      89      45    0.08     539     526    

HAO

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.0    -4.9    1023      60      96    0.05     556     538    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.0    -4.1    1018      96      98    0.33     555     541    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -4.9    -2.0    1011      95      96    0.40     550     541    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.3    -4.6    1008      94      98    0.22     542     536    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.1    -9.3    1009      96      96    0.20     537     529    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -4.8   -10.5    1017      86      55    0.07     539     525    

MGY

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -3.9    -6.1    1023      50      96    0.03     556     537    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -5.2    -4.7    1018      91      97    0.20     555     541    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.4    -2.8    1011      95      99    0.34     550     541    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.8    -4.8    1008      93      99    0.22     542     536    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.2    -9.1    1009      96      97    0.18     537     530    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.3   -10.5    1017      86      55    0.08     538     525    

DAY

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -4.1    -7.1    1024      47      96    0.01     555     537    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.8    -4.9    1018      77      97    0.10     554     540    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.7    -3.7    1012      95      99    0.28     550     540    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -6.1    -5.4    1009      93      99    0.23     542     535    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.1    -9.7    1009      96      96    0.12     537     530    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.6   -10.7    1017      86      57    0.05     538     524    

CMH - A much better run for you JP!

MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.1    -5.9    1019      66      94    0.03     554     539    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -5.3    -4.1    1013      92      92    0.15     550     540    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -5.7    -5.2    1009      94      98    0.26     543     536    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -2.6    -7.8    1008      91      96    0.07     537     531    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -5.3   -10.2    1015      86      52    0.07     536     525    

FGX

SUN 18Z 05-JAN  -3.8    -3.7    1023      82      97    0.07     559     540    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  -4.4    -1.2    1016      96      99    0.53     557     545    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  -3.2     3.2    1009      96      98    0.71     553     547    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  -4.3     1.3    1005      96      38    0.07     544     540    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  -3.7    -6.5    1007      96      82    0.05     536     531    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  -3.6    -9.8    1015      92      92    0.08     539     527

Still has the slightest hint of freezing rain for CVG.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:05 am**

CMC holding on to the southern idea... totals keep dropping from city on north.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:10 am**

CMC out to lunch. Most models all coming to agreement. Snowmageddon

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:12 am**

IMG_2958.jpeg

IMG_2959.jpeg

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:15 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:39 am
young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:38 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:28 am
young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:24 am I thought I made a comment last night but don't see it. Was hoping for the models to come into agreement. It seems like it really didn't. So far on the 12z runs today it looks like I should have opened a bottle of whiskey up. lol
Tim has been looking at CMH very hard and it's a crap shoot. All snow of course but how much moisture is available is the biggest question for your area. 3" to as much as 6"+ is the forecasted window.
Good morning Les, I was thinking last night as I was talking to someone 4 to 8. But, now I got serious doubts.
Good morning! That's a good range for now JP. GFS is running now and we'll see the Euro in a couple more hours to hopefully allow us to see how much precip will fall for you guys.

No wonder the nws has not included some of us in a WSWarning.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:17 am**

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:15 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:39 am
young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:38 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:28 am
young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:24 am I thought I made a comment last night but don't see it. Was hoping for the models to come into agreement. It seems like it really didn't. So far on the 12z runs today it looks like I should have opened a bottle of whiskey up. lol
Tim has been looking at CMH very hard and it's a crap shoot. All snow of course but how much moisture is available is the biggest question for your area. 3" to as much as 6"+ is the forecasted window.
Good morning Les, I was thinking last night as I was talking to someone 4 to 8. But, now I got serious doubts.
Good morning! That's a good range for now JP. GFS is running now and we'll see the Euro in a couple more hours to hopefully allow us to see how much precip will fall for you guys.
No wonder the nws has not included some of us in a WSWarning.

I think they are concerned you may have difficulty making advisory criteria.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:17 am**

Agreed guys... Toss the 12Z CMC. I'll be in and out. Going to take down the Christmas tree.

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:17 am**

Blizzard criteria?

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:18 am**

I heard the other day that if there are stronger thunderstorms south it could pull the moisture from the north. Could this be why the European models are showing less snow up north?

Posted: **Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:30 am**

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 11:18 am I heard the other day that if there are stronger thunderstorms south it could pull the moisture from the north. Could this be why the European models are showing less snow up north?

While it’s a possibility, they just seem to like the Southern track. I guess we will see if that holds today.

Absolute Vorticity

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