Absolute Vorticity

I don't see the MJO going into the COD at this time. The models continue to grossly under estimate the strength of the MJO and it is getting stronger in Phase 1 as we speak. It is forecast to thru Phase 2 and 3 by the 10th. After that, it may continue into the warmer phases but how long it takes that to occur is anyone's guess. Also, the amount of blocking can override the MJO signal somewhat so we'll need to keep an eye on that to see how sustainable it can become. Also watching the SSW as has been mentioned. We should know if a true SSW occurs or not in the next week and half or so. Then, we wont know its impacts, assuming it occurs, until later in January. Definitely some unknowns as we head into the new year.

It’s nice to see the GFS showing a more normal looking winter time pattern to go with the more normal temps, regardless of whether or not it shows a winter type outcome for us ATM . I’ll take every 3 or 4 days of it showing southern sliders or mid-west cutters this far out

54 here on the east side

12Z GEFS is showing one heck of a -NAO too. No SE ridge as of yet so we don't have to worry about it linking up with it like what happened last winter in the La Nina.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:52 pm 54 here on the east side

I have 53 with wall to wall blue skies. Clouds are moving in slowly from the West (Over Western IN now) but will have no impact on our highs today.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:18 pm It’s nice to see the GFS showing a more normal looking winter time pattern to go with the more normal temps, regardless of whether or not it shows a winter type outcome for us ATM . I’ll take every 3 or 4 days of it showing southern sliders or mid-west cutters this far out

Exactly and will just watch to see if we get a bigger system in this pattern. 37 here in Wausau and the normal temps for this time of year is high of 25 and low of 10. Btw Beijing, China had a record of over 300 hours below 32f. Been keeping record since 1951 I believe so yes there has been cold in some lower latitudes this season just not on this side of the globe yet. Beijing is rather close to us in Latitude as well

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 2:22 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:18 pm It’s nice to see the GFS showing a more normal looking winter time pattern to go with the more normal temps, regardless of whether or not it shows a winter type outcome for us ATM . I’ll take every 3 or 4 days of it showing southern sliders or mid-west cutters this far out

Exactly and will just watch to see if we get a bigger system in this pattern. 37 here in Wausau and the normal temps for this time of year is high of 25 and low of 10. Btw Beijing, China had a record of over 300 hours below 32f. Been keeping record since 1951 I believe so yes there has been cold in some lower latitudes this season just not on this side of the globe yet. Beijing is rather close to us in Latitude as well

Upper Midwest and Michigan areas are the ones I really feel bad for with this weather. A lot of people depend on the cold and snow and all it is now is mud

EU roughly the same as the GFS, with southern stream energies traversing the country first week to 10 days of new year

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 2:28 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 2:22 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:18 pm It’s nice to see the GFS showing a more normal looking winter time pattern to go with the more normal temps, regardless of whether or not it shows a winter type outcome for us ATM . I’ll take every 3 or 4 days of it showing southern sliders or mid-west cutters this far out

Exactly and will just watch to see if we get a bigger system in this pattern. 37 here in Wausau and the normal temps for this time of year is high of 25 and low of 10. Btw Beijing, China had a record of over 300 hours below 32f. Been keeping record since 1951 I believe so yes there has been cold in some lower latitudes this season just not on this side of the globe yet. Beijing is rather close to us in Latitude as well

Upper Midwest and Michigan areas are the ones I really feel bad for with this weather. A lot of people depend on the cold and snow and all it is now is mud

It's been awful for the ski resorts of New England and Maine as well. Winter truly has been non-existent for much of North America this December. We all knew it would be warm, but I don't think anyone thought it would turn out this bad for the country as a whole.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 2:32 pm EU roughly the same as the GFS, with southern stream energies traversing the country first week to 10 days of new year

Yep! We all have known for a long time that winter storms aren't going to show up in the longer term and if they do, it is for one or two runs then they are gone. We have to get something within 3-5 days to take it seriously. Even then, it could be a stretch.

Just shows how mother nature is balancing the earth out with many areas on this side of the planet having record warmth and on the other side record cold. Back in June many parts of China had record warmth while we were more towards normal this summer.

12Z EPS has a southern slider around Jan 6th and a much better looking storm system around the 9-10th. Again, we should trust nothing this far away but when there is nothing going on, what else is there to talk about?

I still don't see any changes to my call for Thurs and Fri. We get periods of light rain / snow at night with the best chance of anything heavy enough to stick well west and SW of the area. The track of the upper low isn't good and the system is much weaker then it once was as well. I'm pretty much punting any accumulating snow chances until January unfortunately.

Thanks all for HBD greetings, I wished for a big snowstorm for today, but it didn't happen! Here's to a big snow in the first 10 days of the new year...

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 3:50 pm Thanks all for HBD greetings, I wished for a big snowstorm for today, but it didn't happen! Here's to a big snow in the first 10 days of the new year...

Sure hope that your wish comes true, Joe!

When it rains it pours! My folks and I all tested positive for Covid this afternoon. And on top of that my Mom Joyce is at our local Wayne Health Care ER as she had an abdominal x-ray and its been confirmed that she has a bowel blockage. She is currently talking to a surgeon.

The Lord is good and He'll get us all through this!

Currently 43 here in G'ville and progged for around 36 on Thurs morning.

HAPPY 62ND BIRTHDAY JOE!!

I hope that you're enjoying your special day, Wxbuddy!

Both CVG / CMH reached 51 and DAY 50 today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 3:14 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 2:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:38 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:16 am Good morning all! I'm alive and kicking... well somewhat. I just got a chance to look at the overnight models and the ULL is indeed south of us unfortunately. So a few rain and snow showers are all we are going to get should that hold as you guys have already mentioned.

Homemade chicken-noodle soup should give you a boost.

True. It's just when I am sick, I never feel like eating. Under normal circumstances, I like to eat LOL

Same with my mom, Bro. Today I feel like I'm coming down with one, too.

Prayerfully we'll all feel much better soon!

My Mom is sick too and the local Dr. office is so busy right now, she had to get a virtual visit online. I think a lot of sicknesses are running around right now. Hopefully, we all start to feel better soon!

Prayers with your Mom, too, Bro.

Eric - Thank you Bro! Prayers to you and your family also!

00z GFS shows a total bomb of a low for the end of week two. Very strong cold front and a blast of frigid air for the first time this season.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 6:38 pm Eric - Thank you Bro! Prayers to you and your family also!

Thank you, Les!

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:28 am 00z GFS shows a total bomb of a low for the end of week two. Very strong cold front and a blast of frigid air for the first time this season.

Good morning Trev. It looks fairly boring until then, unless something pops up in the short term of course. This is the first time all season that I can recall that the GFS actually is showing the system on multiple runs. Even the 6Z run has it, albeit a weaker version so it's more SE and a snowier outcome for us. Of course this will change over and over again assuming we don't lose the storm. A big bomb cyclone that is a cutter would not surprise me. It fits the pattern then it should unleash a real wintry pattern behind it for the second half of January and into February per our original seasonal outlooks.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 8:06 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:28 am 00z GFS shows a total bomb of a low for the end of week two. Very strong cold front and a blast of frigid air for the first time this season.

Good morning Trev. It looks fairly boring until then, unless something pops up in the short term of course. This is the first time all season that I can recall that the GFS actually is showing the system on multiple runs. Even the 6Z run has it, albeit a weaker version so it's more SE and a snowier outcome for us. Of course this will change over and over again assuming we don't lose the storm. A big bomb cyclone that is a cutter would not surprise me. It fits the pattern then it should unleash a real wintry pattern behind it for the second half of January and into February per our original seasonal outlooks.

I have to start wondering what the records are for the latest 1 inch snowfalls at the big three climate stations across our area. If we get something in the next two weeks we are probably safe from hitting records. After that I do not know. It's so very sad that we have another year we have to talk about these unwanted type records. Half of climatological winter is going to have gone by with no snow yet again.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:35 pm When it rains it pours! My folks and I all tested positive for Covid this afternoon. And on top of that my Mom Joyce is at our local Wayne Health Care ER as she had an abdominal x-ray and its been confirmed that she has a bowel blockage. She is currently talking to a surgeon.

The Lord is good and He'll get us all through this!

Currently 43 here in G'ville and progged for around 36 on Thurs morning.

So Sorry to hear Eric! Will def be in my prayers!