Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:55 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:59 am Good morning all! Quiet weather until mid to late next week. Several rain chances to deal with as well as mild temps. Not sure on severe wx at this point but once those 70s get in here for Thurs, the threat could be on the table if we haver good timing and some heating.

Good Morning Les and no doubt a nice warming trend this week. My first thought was next weekend we would cool down but it looks like another cold front will need to get in here late next weekend or early the following week for another below normal set up. How much rain is interesting and somebody in the Ohio Valley will get hit rather hard with some heavy rain. Still early in the process but most folks should get at least 1 inch of rainfall but depending on how everything sets up chances for somebody to get over 3 inches is possible. Spring and we have these kind of systems so nothing unusual in that sense. Flooding and again with no snow melt involved we get the normal kind of flooding you expect with these systems early in the spring and folks who live near a river or stream no this is part of living close to a body of water.

Making a quick trip to SC leaving Wednesday morning and getting home late Friday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 8:10 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:55 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:59 am Good morning all! Quiet weather until mid to late next week. Several rain chances to deal with as well as mild temps. Not sure on severe wx at this point but once those 70s get in here for Thurs, the threat could be on the table if we haver good timing and some heating.

Good Morning Les and no doubt a nice warming trend this week. My first thought was next weekend we would cool down but it looks like another cold front will need to get in here late next weekend or early the following week for another below normal set up. How much rain is interesting and somebody in the Ohio Valley will get hit rather hard with some heavy rain. Still early in the process but most folks should get at least 1 inch of rainfall but depending on how everything sets up chances for somebody to get over 3 inches is possible. Spring and we have these kind of systems so nothing unusual in that sense. Flooding and again with no snow melt involved we get the normal kind of flooding you expect with these systems early in the spring and folks who live near a river or stream no this is part of living close to a body of water.

Making a quick trip to SC leaving Wednesday morning and getting home late Friday.

Safe travels Tim! I agree with the totals you have listed. Most models are in that 1-3" range for this upcoming week. We'll have to wait and see how long it takes these frontal systems to move thru, or if they stall, then the heavier amounts can be realized.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:53 pm Happy Spring / Vernal Equinox everybody that is just about here in the next 30-45 mins as of this post.

I topped out at 49 today. One last chilly night in the 20s then we start to slowly bring the rain chances in. Highest chances continue to be late Thurs thru Fri night. 50 / 50 chance tomorrow and Wed with a weak system sliding thru before the main piece. It will ends early Saturday. If this timing works out, then we should squeak in a dry Sunday. Rain chances quickly pick back up next week. Mild overall after tonight. We peak in the 70+ range on Thursday right before the main system works into the area.

In the long term, I still see more active weather and one more cold plunge to end March. Snow to end March or begin April? Low chance, but no big signals are showing up. Either way, we trend warmer thereafter as spring begins to kick in more. Frosts / Freezes still possible obviously at anytime in April but they should become less frequent climo speaking. This is kind of how I see things progressing over the next 2 weeks.

MJO has begun its dive thru from Phase 8 into Phase 1. Looks like we get into Phase 2 within the next week before going into the circle. These are colder phases so thus, that last cold attack I spoke of is likely while we still have some blocking in place.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:43 pm WPC making note of an axis of possible flooding rains somewhere in the vicinity of CVGland for Thursday/Friday


The hazardous weather focus for the medium-range forecast period (Thursday, March 23rd - Monday,
March 27th) will be on the threat for potentially significant heavy rain and severe weather over
portions of the central/eastern CONUS Thursday (March 23rd) and Friday (March 24th). A slow moving
cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to the Plains will be pushing southward relatively
slowly over portions of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys Thursday-Friday. A second frontal system
will cross the southern tier of the West and enter the Southern Plains during the same time frame.
An upper-level ridge building over the southeastern CONUS as an upper-level trough approaches from
the west will help to funnel anomalously high Gulf moisture north and eastward along and ahead of
these boundaries, increasing instability and fueling widespread showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain/high rain rates. For days, the deterministic model guidance has been consistent in
suggesting the possibility for potentially widespread significant heavy rainfall totals, upwards of
4-5+ inches, particularly from late afternoon Thursday into early Friday morning. However, another
unfortunate consistent pattern in the guidance is for a narrow axis of heavy rainfall with
differences amongst individual models. Due to the narrow axis of heaviest rainfall, even relatively
small adjustments in placement could impact what locations see a significant amount of rainfall or
only light to moderate amounts. Regardless, the threat has remained notable and could lead to flash
flooding concerns. Another round of storms is expected to develop Friday along and ahead of the
cold front pushing across the Ohio Valley/Southeast. Additional heavy rainfall is likely with these
storms, although totals look to be less significant overall compared to Thursday given the more
progressive nature of the front

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 5:43 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 4:53 pm Happy Spring / Vernal Equinox everybody that is just about here in the next 30-45 mins as of this post.

I topped out at 49 today. One last chilly night in the 20s then we start to slowly bring the rain chances in. Highest chances continue to be late Thurs thru Fri night. 50 / 50 chance tomorrow and Wed with a weak system sliding thru before the main piece. It will ends early Saturday. If this timing works out, then we should squeak in a dry Sunday. Rain chances quickly pick back up next week. Mild overall after tonight. We peak in the 70+ range on Thursday right before the main system works into the area.

In the long term, I still see more active weather and one more cold plunge to end March. Snow to end March or begin April? Low chance, but no big signals are showing up. Either way, we trend warmer thereafter as spring begins to kick in more. Frosts / Freezes still possible obviously at anytime in April but they should become less frequent climo speaking. This is kind of how I see things progressing over the next 2 weeks.

MJO has begun its dive thru from Phase 8 into Phase 1. Looks like we get into Phase 2 within the next week before going into the circle. These are colder phases so thus, that last cold attack I spoke of is likely while we still have some blocking in place.

In the long range what is Easter 4/7-4/9 weekend looking like, Bro?

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 7:30 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 6:43 pm WPC making note of an axis of possible flooding rains somewhere in the vicinity of CVGland for Thursday/Friday


The hazardous weather focus for the medium-range forecast period (Thursday, March 23rd - Monday,
March 27th) will be on the threat for potentially significant heavy rain and severe weather over
portions of the central/eastern CONUS Thursday (March 23rd) and Friday (March 24th). A slow moving
cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to the Plains will be pushing southward relatively
slowly over portions of the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys Thursday-Friday. A second frontal system
will cross the southern tier of the West and enter the Southern Plains during the same time frame.
An upper-level ridge building over the southeastern CONUS as an upper-level trough approaches from
the west will help to funnel anomalously high Gulf moisture north and eastward along and ahead of
these boundaries, increasing instability and fueling widespread showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain/high rain rates. For days, the deterministic model guidance has been consistent in
suggesting the possibility for potentially widespread significant heavy rainfall totals, upwards of
4-5+ inches, particularly from late afternoon Thursday into early Friday morning. However, another
unfortunate consistent pattern in the guidance is for a narrow axis of heavy rainfall with
differences amongst individual models. Due to the narrow axis of heaviest rainfall, even relatively
small adjustments in placement could impact what locations see a significant amount of rainfall or
only light to moderate amounts. Regardless, the threat has remained notable and could lead to flash
flooding concerns. Another round of storms is expected to develop Friday along and ahead of the
cold front pushing across the Ohio Valley/Southeast. Additional heavy rainfall is likely with these
storms, although totals look to be less significant overall compared to Thursday given the more
progressive nature of the front

Miami Valley region, too, I reckon. My folks will be in Lima for Mom a med appt on Thurs morning. Crap!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 11:13 am 12Z NAM only has about an inch and a half for CVG with this event.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 11:19 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 21, 2023 11:13 am 12Z NAM only has about an inch and a half for CVG with this event.

Hey Les and going to see different amounts with each model for several more runs as they try and figure where the front stalls. At this point a good 1-3 inch forecast seems fine until we can figure out exactly where the heaviest rains falls.The only trend and its minor is for the heaviest rain a little further south on most runs. Lets see if that trend continues. I would love to see between 1-2 inches for the entire week which is always a nice amount to have in later March.