Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:45 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:42 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:32 am 12Z HRRR Kuchera.


12ZHRRR.png

Good Morning Les and should be an exciting day and already went to 2 Kroger's and both have very few eggs left and my guess is folks went grocery shopping earlier than normal for eggs,milk. Concerning the Kuchera method and I look at it but never use it for forecasting snow. I see where folks in Indy have lowered totals and sped up the arrival of the front.

Kroger's was tough here yesterday. Better then waiting until today.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:46 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:42 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:32 am 12Z HRRR Kuchera.


12ZHRRR.png

Good Morning Les and should be an exciting day and already went to 2 Kroger's and both have very few eggs left and my guess is folks went grocery shopping earlier than normal for eggs,milk. Concerning the Kuchera method and I look at it but never use it for forecasting snow. I see where folks in Indy have lowered totals and sped up the arrival of the front.

I went shopping for a few things last night at the Springdale Rd Krogers, there were almost no eggs, bread aisle was decimated, there were entire cases/bins in the produce section that were completely empty including potatoes. I don't remember ever seeing it like that, but then, I generally don't shop when it's supposed to snow.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:32 am 12Z NAM is back in line after that silly overnight run. Here's another short term model, the 12Z RAP.


12ZRap.png

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:39 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:07 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:41 am I'll stay slightly on the lower side with 2-3" and iso 4". There only so much moisture post fropa and winds are my reasons. I will defer official snow amounts to cvg, Dayton, cbus noaa offices

Good call on official obs sites. Backyard snow measurements will be highly inaccurate with this due to wind.

Trev, can you get some info from your friend at ILN on what qpf they're expecting in snow. We can then figure out how much effects they are thinking the winds will have on ratios. This is basically the difference in forecasters thinking of snowfall amounts here , TV forecasts and Noaa offices. Kuchera is useless in this situation .

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:43 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:32 am 12Z NAM is back in line after that silly overnight run. Here's another short term model, the 12Z RAP.


12ZRap.png

It's clear the NWS is using the NAM numbers.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:49 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:39 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:07 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 6:41 am I'll stay slightly on the lower side with 2-3" and iso 4". There only so much moisture post fropa and winds are my reasons. I will defer official snow amounts to cvg, Dayton, cbus noaa offices

Good call on official obs sites. Backyard snow measurements will be highly inaccurate with this due to wind.

Trev, can you get some info from your friend at ILN on what qpf they're expecting in snow. We can then figure out how much effects they are thinking the winds will have on ratios. This is basically the difference in forecasters thinking of snowfall amounts here , TV forecasts and Noaa offices. Kuchera is useless in this situation .

He says somewhere between 0.15-0.25 for now but tough to say.

MJSun wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:59 am Hi all! I tried to look through posts but can someone share when the big drop/flash freeze is going to hit? It sounds like later tonight (7ish? Later?).

Also, Les, your high and low temperatures on the widget in your sig is nuts: 44/-5.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 10:10 am We are seeing these intense snow sqaull warnings pop up and the latest one is in southeast Kansas. This is something that we need to watch over the next 24 hours as these are hard to predict but with a very very strong jet with tons of energy. They can have true blizzard conditions except they don't meet the time period of 3 hours but just getting one to last an hour can cause all kinds of problems. Going to watch this today and see if we get a consistent flow to the east and see if these snow squalls continues

Wxulikeitornot wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:21 am FB_IMG_1671718809432.jpg