Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 8:03 am We should crack freezing tomorrow, the 40s Wed, and the 50s by Thurs. Expecting the best rain chances to come late Friday and esp on Saturday. NYE looks like a very wet day at this time. Rain should wrap up by NYD in the morning. This can all change but the current timing is not good for NYE Parties. Mild yes, dry nope is the current theme. That'll wrap up December!

Les I agree with everything on this post but one item. I believe we don't ger above 32 until Wednesday. I believe a nice side bet of a beer or two should happen and if we get above 32 I owe you a few and if we stay under you owe me a few or if we just hit 32 exactly then we will have a beer fest.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:24 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 8:03 am We should crack freezing tomorrow, the 40s Wed, and the 50s by Thurs. Expecting the best rain chances to come late Friday and esp on Saturday. NYE looks like a very wet day at this time. Rain should wrap up by NYD in the morning. This can all change but the current timing is not good for NYE Parties. Mild yes, dry nope is the current theme. That'll wrap up December!

Les I agree with everything on this post but one item. I believe we don't ger above 32 until Wednesday. I believe a nice side bet of a beer or two should happen and if we get above 32 I owe you a few and if we stay under you owe me a few or if we just hit 32 exactly then we will have a beer fest.

It's a bet. I think we do get above 32, I'll go with 34 at CVG for a high. This is because we should see some sunshine tomorrow to help "boost" the temps up as the arctic air finally retreats. Only way I lose the bet is if stubborn low clouds linger. That would 100% keep us at or below freezing. It'll depend on the sky cover Tim for this bet.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:29 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:24 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 8:03 am We should crack freezing tomorrow, the 40s Wed, and the 50s by Thurs. Expecting the best rain chances to come late Friday and esp on Saturday. NYE looks like a very wet day at this time. Rain should wrap up by NYD in the morning. This can all change but the current timing is not good for NYE Parties. Mild yes, dry nope is the current theme. That'll wrap up December!

Les I agree with everything on this post but one item. I believe we don't ger above 32 until Wednesday. I believe a nice side bet of a beer or two should happen and if we get above 32 I owe you a few and if we stay under you owe me a few or if we just hit 32 exactly then we will have a beer fest.

It's a bet. I think we do get above 32, I'll go with 34 at CVG for a high. This is because we should see some sunshine tomorrow to help "boost" the temps up as the arctic air finally retreats. Only way I lose the bet is if stubborn low clouds linger. That would 100% keep us at or below freezing. It'll depend on the sky cover Tim for this bet.

I also believe models have a hard time with melting snow and ice and this keeps temps down a few degree and even Wednesday I believe the forecast highs are a few degrees on the warm side. Once we get much of this melted then you see the reverse happen and models can be a little low late this week and into the weekend.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:29 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:24 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 8:03 am We should crack freezing tomorrow, the 40s Wed, and the 50s by Thurs. Expecting the best rain chances to come late Friday and esp on Saturday. NYE looks like a very wet day at this time. Rain should wrap up by NYD in the morning. This can all change but the current timing is not good for NYE Parties. Mild yes, dry nope is the current theme. That'll wrap up December!

Les I agree with everything on this post but one item. I believe we don't ger above 32 until Wednesday. I believe a nice side bet of a beer or two should happen and if we get above 32 I owe you a few and if we stay under you owe me a few or if we just hit 32 exactly then we will have a beer fest.

It's a bet. I think we do get above 32, I'll go with 34 at CVG for a high. This is because we should see some sunshine tomorrow to help "boost" the temps up as the arctic air finally retreats. Only way I lose the bet is if stubborn low clouds linger. That would 100% keep us at or below freezing. It'll depend on the sky cover Tim for this bet.

I also believe models have a hard time with melting snow and ice and this keeps temps down a few degree and even Wednesday I believe the forecast highs are a few degrees on the warm side. Once we get much of this melted then you see the reverse happen and models can be a little low late this week and into the weekend.

For sure! 60 would not shock me even with clouds and rain for a high on NYE.

12Z GFS has over an inch of rain for NYE / NYD. Lovely...

Well no doubt the temp this afternoon is lower than the NWS forecasts. Also when you get these clippers they are usually attached to another cold front and though the change is not great behind the front it does keep the colder temps around a little longer and another reason I was going below 32 on Tuesday.

We should maintain some sort of south wind with regards to the direction even after this clipper passes since it's petering out as it moves in anyway. I don't think we really get a true frontal passage with this one. 22 here so far and we are running a couple of degrees colder today for sure to your point Tim. We'll see. Like I said earlier, if the low clouds win out tomorrow, you've got a wonderful shot here. Either way though, we win since there is beer involved.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 2:28 pm We should maintain some sort of south wind with regards to the direction even after this clipper passes since it's petering out as it moves in anyway. I don't think we really get a true frontal passage with this one. 22 here so far and we are running a couple of degrees colder today for sure to your point Tim. We'll see. Like I said earlier, if the low clouds win out tomorrow, you've got a wonderful shot here. Either way though, we win since there is beer involved.

No losers on this bet Les

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 2:28 pm We should maintain some sort of south wind with regards to the direction even after this clipper passes since it's petering out as it moves in anyway. I don't think we really get a true frontal passage with this one. 22 here so far and we are running a couple of degrees colder today for sure to your point Tim. We'll see. Like I said earlier, if the low clouds win out tomorrow, you've got a wonderful shot here. Either way though, we win since there is beer involved.

Les I thought with that second piece of energy that winds would turn around to the west northwest for a period of time and that is why imo it looked like a cold front though brief that it may be

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 2:29 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 2:28 pm We should maintain some sort of south wind with regards to the direction even after this clipper passes since it's petering out as it moves in anyway. I don't think we really get a true frontal passage with this one. 22 here so far and we are running a couple of degrees colder today for sure to your point Tim. We'll see. Like I said earlier, if the low clouds win out tomorrow, you've got a wonderful shot here. Either way though, we win since there is beer involved.

No losers on this bet Les

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 2:32 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 2:28 pm We should maintain some sort of south wind with regards to the direction even after this clipper passes since it's petering out as it moves in anyway. I don't think we really get a true frontal passage with this one. 22 here so far and we are running a couple of degrees colder today for sure to your point Tim. We'll see. Like I said earlier, if the low clouds win out tomorrow, you've got a wonderful shot here. Either way though, we win since there is beer involved.

Les I thought with that second piece of energy that winds would turn around to the west northwest for a period of time and that is why imo it looked like a cold front though brief that it may be

I think it'll be NW flow aloft tomorrow about 5000 feet above our heads so even if it is southernly at the surface, the temp rise isn't going to be substantial. If we stay cloudy tonight, temps should not drop below 20 IMO (talking CVG here) so that helps with a warmer start tomorrow vs being in the teens. Then it boils down to sky cover to see if enough warmth can be realized to sneak us above 32 come 3 or 4pm. Or if the clouds hang tough 30-31 should do it. We'll see in the next 24 hours.

If we get a big dog in January or Feb anyone want to help me build this?


https://homehacks.co/ohio-man-builds-mu ... 1frZ4ij-Og

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 3:11 pm If we get a big dog in January or Feb anyone want to help me build this?


https://homehacks.co/ohio-man-builds-mu ... 1frZ4ij-Og

I will watch but glad to supply any beverages that are requested

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 3:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 26, 2022 3:11 pm If we get a big dog in January or Feb anyone want to help me build this?


https://homehacks.co/ohio-man-builds-mu ... 1frZ4ij-Og

I will watch but glad to supply any beverages that are requested

My folks, myself, and my Brother when we were growing up had a big snow. I think it may have been during the Jan 85 cold wave. The last pile of snow from that igloo finally melted during the first week of May. I mean an igloo is layers upon layers of snow. Wet it down, let it freeze. Then do it again and again and again. You start with a pile of snow, a big pile and begin to dig it out and keep throwing the snow back on top. Repeat this process a bunch of times and you've got your basic igloo. The guy in that article had a ton of help to pull off a cool feat like that!

If you are a Rochester, NY snow weenie, you must be ready to jump off the cliff after seeing this graphic.

We start the day at 26 for our bet, Tim. Good luck!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 27, 2022 7:45 am We start the day at 26 for our bet, Tim. Good luck!

Wish you both luck on the bet!! Have had burst pipes and a glaze on the driveway so needless to say once that mercury climbs above freezing I will be having a back yard party! Also - trying to heat a house built in 1910 with subzero temps is oodles of fun!

Having a bit of light snow IMBY 26 degrees and calm winds

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 27, 2022 9:13 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 27, 2022 7:45 am We start the day at 26 for our bet, Tim. Good luck!

Wish you both luck on the bet!! Have had burst pipes and a glaze on the driveway so needless to say once that mercury climbs above freezing I will be having a back yard party! Also - trying to heat a house built in 1910 with subzero temps is oodles of fun!

Ugh... sorry to hear about the busted pipes Mike. You are definitely ready for this 2 week break.

12Z GFS brings showers in late Thurs night / early Fri morning. Heaviest rains come Fri night into the day on NYE. The model still has shower chances for party goers but not a widespread soaking rain at that time. So some good news there. Amounts are down a bit also 0.77" at CVG.

29 as of 12pm at CVG. So far Tim is winning. Got a few more hours left though. I was banking on a bit of sun this afternoon for assistance but the low clouds may win out today with warm air coming over the colder ground. Going to be interesting this afternoon to see how this shakes out.

30 as of 1pm. I need 3 degrees to win, 4 to reach my forecast high.

12Z Euro shows periods of rain Thurs night after midnight. Fri and Fri night as well. Low pressure passes along the front thru TN so moderate to heavy rains on NYE likely with this solution. However, timing is such that we get a break during the evening hours on NYE as the wave moves off to the NE. I've noticed some better timing today indicating a potential dry window during party time! I want to cook a deer loin wrapped in bacon (which is our NY's tradition) at my Brother's and rain is not on the menu! Would love to see this kind of timing hold! Rainfall amounts at CVG is 1.86" That maybe overdone but if you get a wave riding to the south it could certainly happen like that. If the front is slower and lows pass to our West, it's warmer but the rain IMO wouldn't be quite as heavy since we are further away from the best lift.

I'm at 32 now, but we said CVG for the bet. Still holding at 30 as of the 2pm reading.

Good Afternoon and finally arrived in SC. Traffic is a mess with the holiday drivers lol. Les I saw your post but have not got to look at any info but I do have some comments on the upcoming pattern that I will put in the January thread. Les how many times when we differ it ends up in the middle and 32 may end up being the number today. Wednesday as well will be much lower than forecasts showed this past weekend where I saw some showing 50's. This time of year with snow and ice on the ground and we know unless you have a very intense high that we just are unable to get out of the clouds. That part of the computer program has a flaw because there are enough times over the years where we just end up lower than the models. Wednesday probably 42 or 43 by late afternoon and finally Thursday we should get to 50. Today we had a south wind but I drove down with a decent snow pack until I got across the mountains on I-40. Sunny down here and 47 and of course no snow at all.