Absolute Vorticity

You never know where the infamous ever shifting AV Dome is going to end up, but the 6z GFS is detecting its whereabouts nicely for todays slim rain chance across the region. Probably underestimating its vastness though as usual.

My 40-50% coverage call looks good on that map. You can even see Mike's Dome depicted on there also.

For timing... I like a 2-6pm window. Storms should fire very close to us then drop south. Again, my concern is that we get very little and folks south of us get all the action. That is a very real possibility as some guidance has shown. If you get one of these pulse storms though, an inch of rain is a good bet, but it's going to take some luck! The good news... temps and humidity drops for Thurs and Fri with the 90s back this weekend ahead of Sunday's front which I still believe will offer up a better chance. Still rolling with 60-70% coverage there.

Good Morning and today is the day where we have the best shot of getting the heat index around 100. Hopefully we can get a nice thundershower later today but like you guys mentioned getting one in your backyard takes some perfect timing. This kind of pattern today is one over the years I seem to get missed with the rain so anything I get is welcomed. I agree Les that later Sunday a stronger front moves through and chances should go up for more widespread coverage. My yard is still in good shape and down to only mowing once a week but if we don't get some rain over the next week then my guess the lawn and other vegetation will start to have some problems.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:45 am Good Morning and today is the day where we have the best shot of getting the heat index around 100. Hopefully we can get a nice thundershower later today but like you guys mentioned getting one in your backyard takes some perfect timing. This kind of pattern today is one over the years I seem to get missed with the rain so anything I get is welcomed. I agree Les that later Sunday a stronger front moves through and chances should go up for more widespread coverage. My yard is still in good shape and down to only mowing once a week but if we don't get some rain over the next week then my guess the lawn and other vegetation will start to have some problems.

I mowed last week but won't mow again until we see rain. Starting to see a few brown spots since it's been 9 days since my hood has seen rain. We need it badly here to keep things green. ILN does have a heat advisory out until 7pm today but I imagine that will be cancelled a couple hours earlier due to the chance for storms and the front closing in on us by then.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:31 am My 40-50% coverage call looks good on that map. You can even see Mike's Dome depicted on there also.

Ha Ha - oh yes I'm sure my dome will be in full force today!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:31 am My 40-50% coverage call looks good on that map. You can even see Mike's Dome depicted on there also.

Ha Ha - oh yes I'm sure my dome will be in full force today!

I'm not feeling good here either. My Dome has strengthened considerably!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:47 am I'm not feeling good here either. My Dome has strengthened considerably!

To be honest I like your chances better than mine, but if I was betting the ranch I would go even south of you for the highest chances as you mentioned earlier.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:29 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:47 am I'm not feeling good here either. My Dome has strengthened considerably!

To be honest I like your chances better than mine, but if I was betting the ranch I would go even south of you for the highest chances as you mentioned earlier.

Exactly. I feel the exact same way. I just checked ILN sounding. Nice CAP in place attm. Convective temp is 93 with a high progged there of 91. That's no good for convection.

12Z NAM pops a few storms right on top of Cincy then they blow up a bit to our SE then its over. Pretty much the concerns that I have for this next event with regards to not seeing rain. 12Z HRRR is even worse with regards to coverage. Man... I hope my 40-50% call isn't too high. If guidance is right, it is.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:47 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:31 am My 40-50% coverage call looks good on that map. You can even see Mike's Dome depicted on there also.

Ha Ha - oh yes I'm sure my dome will be in full force today!

I'm not feeling good here either. My Dome has strengthened considerably!

I agree as the front seems to be just a tad faster and this only hurts the chances for most folks. As we know these kind of fronts tend to have the heavier rains to the south and east as timing usually works out that way. If we get no rain I would not be surprised. We should have a good ideal by early afternoon to see where if any of the storms form nearby. If we miss this round then Sunday does look better but if that one would miss us then I start to worry about a short term drought which most likely boost temps up in early July.

Looks like the best shot for any substantial rain via that 6z GFS outline that Bgoney posted will be at Mammoth Cave Park and the Corvette Museum in Bowling Green.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:24 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:47 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:31 am My 40-50% coverage call looks good on that map. You can even see Mike's Dome depicted on there also.

Ha Ha - oh yes I'm sure my dome will be in full force today!

I'm not feeling good here either. My Dome has strengthened considerably!

I agree as the front seems to be just a tad faster and this only hurts the chances for most folks. As we know these kind of fronts tend to have the heavier rains to the south and east as timing usually works out that way. If we get no rain I would not be surprised. We should have a good ideal by early afternoon to see where if any of the storms form nearby. If we miss this round then Sunday does look better but if that one would miss us then I start to worry about a short term drought which most likely boost temps up in early July.

A short term, or flash drought as they call it, seems quite possible for sure.

89 at CVG as of 12pm so 90+ is obviously going to occur for our contest if it hasn't already. Quick update from the boys... nothing really new here:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front will work through the region today. There will be
quite a bit of instability however little in the way of shear.
Expect scattered thunderstorms to develop for the afternoon to
early evening hours. With high DCAPE values there is the
potential that some of these storms will be severe with damaging
winds the primary threat. Cannot rule out an isolated hail
report as well.

Temperatures are already into the 80s to close to 90 degrees in
some locations. The combination of heat and humidity will lead
to heat index values near 100 in some areas. Due to this, have
continued the heat advisory across portions of the region.

CAPE looks great! 3500+J/KG. Lapse rates are nice in the 7.0 to 7.5C range. No wind shear is the issue for today. This is why storm motion and storm coverage won't be very good. If we had some wind energy it would be an entirely different ball game.

91 / 76 / 103 at CVG as of 1pm... a nasty afternoon in progress. Hopefully in the next 1-2 hours, we will see where the storms begin to pop.

I think we've met the convective temp region -wise . I see a lot of low to mid nineties across AVLAND.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:24 pm I think we've met the convective temp region -wise . I see a lot of low to mid nineties across AVLAND.

Agreed... finally starting to see a bit of CU developing.

Cold front looks to be moving into IND Land now... CAPE now in the 4500+ range. Again lack of wind shear is going to hurt widespread coverage.

Seeing first shower pop in past 10 mins east of Bloomington. Building east but not moving yet. Do we still expect south-southeast movement today?

93 with a HI of 106 at CVG.

wxnut wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:59 pm Seeing first shower pop in past 10 mins east of Bloomington. Building east but not moving yet. Do we still expect south-southeast movement today?

That speck on radar is so small... maybe it's a bird? There is little going on right now so it's hard to say exactly what's going to happen here. With no shear and lack of steering currents, storms will pulse up, rain themselves out, then the show's over. There should be some ESE movement though with the cold front dropping in but not much movement IMO. So basically, we need some luck to have something pop up on top of you to get a good soaking today. Otherwise, you will see very little if not remain completely dry.

The positive... a decent CU field is forming to our NW in IN where that shower has formed. So perhaps... maybe the guidance was a bit too fast in bringing the front thru? It's hard to know until we see a little more then a speck of green on radar.

96 here in duh-burg. Hottest temp of the summer imby.