Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:28 am
Yep ratios will be high on that wrap around Nam hammering us on backside
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January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm
Page 31 of 64
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:30 am
Les the western GOM is open for business and the only worry I have about the gulf area is a round of storms moving more west to east but I have that happening as a very low possibility
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:30 am
Mark it down!tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:28 am Not having a bully like we see often with these and talking about a coastal low is no doubt helping us in getting more snow for a longer period. If there was a stronger southeast ridge getting the southerly flow up the Carolina coast would no doubt have a decent low forming. That is not happening and this keeps the main low on the west side of the mountains for a much longer period. Yes sooner of later the energy is moving across the mountains but once it does the system is just moving out to sea.
Les we have yourself,Bgoney an myself on the same page. Need to write this down for history because it may never happen again lol
Even ILN concurs. That's probably even more significant. Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:32 am
That is too funny Les
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:32 am
I'll take that 12z NAM run!
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:33 am
100p/c
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:33 am
Totally agree! Per the text data, CVG gets an additional 0.30" of QPF that falls between midday Monday and Monday evening. With rising snow ratios, that could easily drop another 4"+ on top of the snow / sleet combo. So if the NAM at face value for CVG and the Cincy tri-state area is right, then 8-12" of snow and sleet combination occurs. Wow! One heck of a storm! Again for those folks who can remain all snow a foot or more is def on the table.alexdever73 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:28 am Yep ratios will be high on that wrap around Nam hammering us on backside
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:35 am
Did you see the Lake Effect Snow from Lake Michigan later Monday and it comes straight south through Chicago and heads towards southwest Kentucky. That is impressive that far south
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:36 am
The differences in qpf distribution totals between the foreign and American models for the whole region is astonishing
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:38 am
12Z NAM text data:
Code: Select all
CVG
SUN 1P 05-JAN -5.2 -3.5 1024 91 96 0.24 559 540
SUN 7P 05-JAN -4.8 -3.0 1019 91 98 0.58 558 544
MON 1A 06-JAN -4.3 -0.8 1011 90 98 0.76 553 544
MON 7A 06-JAN -5.4 -2.2 1009 87 34 0.12 545 538
MON 1P 06-JAN -3.2 -7.6 1008 90 98 0.09 538 531
MON 7P 06-JAN -3.2 -10.1 1016 86 76 0.20 538 526
HAO
SUN 1P 05-JAN -5.2 -5.0 1024 89 97 0.18 558 539
SUN 7P 05-JAN -5.0 -3.3 1019 92 96 0.20 558 543
MON 1A 06-JAN -5.6 -2.3 1012 92 96 0.72 553 543
MON 7A 06-JAN -5.3 -3.9 1010 87 40 0.13 545 537
MON 1P 06-JAN -3.3 -7.8 1009 89 97 0.04 538 531
MON 7P 06-JAN -4.0 -10.4 1016 84 67 0.10 538 525
MGY
SUN 1P 05-JAN -5.9 -6.2 1025 87 97 0.11 557 538
SUN 7P 05-JAN -5.3 -4.3 1020 88 96 0.09 556 541
MON 1A 06-JAN -6.2 -3.1 1014 91 95 0.58 553 542
MON 7A 06-JAN -5.6 -5.0 1011 87 56 0.17 545 536
MON 1P 06-JAN -3.1 -7.6 1009 87 94 0.02 538 532
MON 7P 06-JAN -4.6 -10.5 1016 87 61 0.05 537 525
TUE 1A 07-JAN -5.8 -9.8 1020 87 37 0.01 540 524
DAY
SUN 1P 05-JAN -6.0 -7.3 1025 79 95 0.04 556 537
SUN 7P 05-JAN -5.4 -5.5 1020 83 96 0.04 555 539
MON 1A 06-JAN -6.3 -4.7 1015 90 96 0.36 552 540
MON 7A 06-JAN -5.6 -6.1 1011 87 82 0.14 544 535
MON 1P 06-JAN -2.5 -8.2 1009 85 94 0.01 539 531
MON 7P 06-JAN -4.9 -10.8 1016 87 50 0.02 537 525
TUE 1A 07-JAN -5.9 -10.0 1020 85 36 0.01 540 524
CMH
MON 1A 06-JAN -6.3 -5.6 1017 90 98 0.28 553 540
MON 7A 06-JAN -5.6 -5.5 1011 88 93 0.32 545 536
MON 1P 06-JAN -2.3 -6.8 1008 79 77 0.01 539 533
MON 7P 06-JAN -3.5 -10.2 1013 87 76 0.01 536 525
TUE 1A 07-JAN -5.1 -10.7 1018 86 33 0.01 537 523
FGX - Big time Frz Rain concerns!
SUN 1P 05-JAN -5.4 -3.1 1025 91 95 0.20 560 541
SUN 7P 05-JAN -3.4 -2.5 1018 88 98 0.83 560 545
MON 1A 06-JAN -3.3 1.3 1011 93 98 0.58 556 548
MON 7A 06-JAN -4.6 1.8 1008 92 46 0.49 547 541
MON 1P 06-JAN -4.0 -4.2 1007 92 97 0.06 539 534
MON 7P 06-JAN -2.2 -10.0 1013 94 85 0.26 537 527
TUE 1A 07-JAN -5.6 -9.7 1020 88 38 0.01 541 525
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:39 am
imagine getting 37" lol i had it once in 96'tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 8:22 am 3Z SREF Mean is still 11" for Cincinnati. There was one weenie member up around 37"! LOL I don't recall ever seeing one ensemble member that high ever! Precip type is snow to sleet to snow. I think that's a really good call for CVG Land. I am not expecting freezing rain, that should stay to the Metro's south. Downtown Cincy, probably the same. One you get up to HAO, Mason, Lebanon and points north etc, expecting all snow there. I like ILN's call and Tim's post also. I can't really disagree with anything anyone said overnight and early this morning. I think most of us are on the same page with this one.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:41 am
Incredible! I have yet to see a storm over 2 feet and unless I move I probably never will! When you get into the double digits around here, that's about the highest ceiling you'll ever get.airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:39 amimagine getting 37" lol i had it once in 96'tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 8:22 am 3Z SREF Mean is still 11" for Cincinnati. There was one weenie member up around 37"! LOL I don't recall ever seeing one ensemble member that high ever! Precip type is snow to sleet to snow. I think that's a really good call for CVG Land. I am not expecting freezing rain, that should stay to the Metro's south. Downtown Cincy, probably the same. One you get up to HAO, Mason, Lebanon and points north etc, expecting all snow there. I like ILN's call and Tim's post also. I can't really disagree with anything anyone said overnight and early this morning. I think most of us are on the same page with this one.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:43 am
12z NBM. National blend of models.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:44 am
I'm watching STL too (have relatives there) and we get more QPF then they do on the US models. They should get more then us since our low beings to weaken due to the transfer. So that's probably it. My guess here is that we get a much slower transfer on the US models and a quicker one so less QPF on the Foreign models.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:46 am
The 9z run made more sense and getting rid of those really high numbers will no doubt bring down the mean but still over 8 inches.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:48 am
it was incredible Les. and the drifts too . depending on where you were you were gonna be stranded for days. they came through with a v-plow 3 days after the storm to bust the road open that we lived on.tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:41 amIncredible! I have yet to see a storm over 2 feet and unless I move I probably never will! When you get into the double digits around here, that's about the highest ceiling you'll ever get.airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:39 amimagine getting 37" lol i had it once in 96'tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 8:22 am 3Z SREF Mean is still 11" for Cincinnati. There was one weenie member up around 37"! LOL I don't recall ever seeing one ensemble member that high ever! Precip type is snow to sleet to snow. I think that's a really good call for CVG Land. I am not expecting freezing rain, that should stay to the Metro's south. Downtown Cincy, probably the same. One you get up to HAO, Mason, Lebanon and points north etc, expecting all snow there. I like ILN's call and Tim's post also. I can't really disagree with anything anyone said overnight and early this morning. I think most of us are on the same page with this one.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:51 am
Back in the day like us old folks talk about was the 76-77 and 77-78 winters. No never any storm that big but several in a row that added up and at one time my guess is over 20 inches on the ground and the drifts were so big you could not open the front door. Btw another system later this week maybe. Those year though were with a weak El Nino and the moisture supply was coming straight from Hawaii in the southwest USA and then across the country.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:52 am
RGEM and ICON models are running now.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:04 am
CB's new call:
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:08 am
RGEM looking wonderful! All snow for probably 90% of the posters here! This is what I want to see occur! The only downside is a brutal northern cut off. The ICON has snow then a brief sleet / frz drzl mix with the dry slot. Doesn't last long then the backside snow on Monday.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:11 am
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:13 am
It's a little concerning these foreign models are not budging on the southern track.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:16 am
Ok, time to work on the snow blower, Christmas lights , get my car all set for winter travel and then I have to prop up my car port roof with some beams to support the weight of the snow/sleet.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:17 am
Almost the perfect storm Les on the RGEMtron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:08 am RGEM looking wonderful! All snow for probably 90% of the posters here! This is what I want to see occur! The only downside is a brutal northern cut off. The ICON has snow then a brief sleet / frz drzl mix with the dry slot. Doesn't last long then the backside snow on Monday.
Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:18 am
Fox 19's call and Local 12's.