Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:25 pm Seasonal Snowfall.png

KDAY has had 7.5 inches to date so there, technically speaking, should be a darker blue around that area. But I'm sure this is a very good representation of what has occurred. Dayton is only a little over 5 inches below normal for the season so it's not impossible to still get to normal or even a little above if this upcoming pattern delivers. Lord knows we are overdue for something to go our way!

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 7:08 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:25 pm Seasonal Snowfall.png

KDAY has had 7.5 inches to date so there, technically speaking, should be a darker blue around that area. But I'm sure this is a very good representation of what has occurred. Dayton is only a little over 5 inches below normal for the season so it's not impossible to still get to normal or even a little above if this upcoming pattern delivers. Lord knows we are overdue for something to go our way!

CVG is at 5.5" with which 5.9" below normal. At CMH, 5.4" has fallen which is 9" below normal.

I continue to be encouraged that the MJO continues to truck along stronger than models have been predicting. Today or tomorrow at the latest we should be in phase 7. Who knows if it continues into phase 8, stalls out, or dies out. Time will tell.

dce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 7:13 pm I continue to be encouraged that the MJO continues to truck along stronger than models have been predicting. Today or tomorrow at the latest we should be in phase 7. Who knows if it continues into phase 8, stalls out, or dies out. Time will tell.

I expect it to keep moving.

Our next partly cloudy to sunny days here in the OV right now look to be around Thurs 2/1 to Sun 2/4.

CVG reached 59, DAY 58 and CMH 61 in the predawn today.

Good morning all. I hope you all have a nice weekend ahead. I'll be running errands for half the day today then doing some laundry for today. Yippie Skippie! For tomorrow, going out to my Brother's and taking Mom with me to hang out and watch playoff football. The boys got a play station for Christmas and they are excited to show it to me. We have not been out there in a while.

Anyway.... back to the weather which is why you all are here. We of course have our rain maker coming in this afternoon perhaps ending as some flakes Sun morning with no issues expected. I think we have that system covered well. Then to end the month... Tues and Wed of next week offers up a system dropping from the north via the Great Lakes, Tues into Wed of next week, which offers up some rain showers and maybe a few flakes as well. Again, no issues are expected. That wraps up January.

I will go ahead and start our Feb thread as we have lots to talk about there also.

Good Morning and the current system is on track. Still believe .5-1.0 is a good range and already seeing some reports of heavy rain this morning in extreme southern Kentucky. The bust will occur if we see a dry slot and will watch that as the day goes on. Do we see snow early Sunday morning and again need precip rates high enough to bring down the cold air closer to the surface. Even if it snows the most likely accumulations would be on the grass,roof tops and cars. We have another system Tuesday and has been getting somewhat stronger on the models and precip type most likely rain but not 100p/c yet on precip type. Then we get into February on Thursday and Les has that thread started and my guess that thread will be very busy.

The latest Nam is further north and west and a tad stronger as well. This brings in the dry slot much closer especially the further south and east you live. The colder air as well that could give us a changeover for a few hours would be further northwest. Just something to watch and will keep track of the other models and surface reports as the day goes on. No Saturday football is something I must get use too until next September.

Lightning signal for this evening is increasing...

I believe that someplace in Northwest Ohio and Eastern Indiana is going to get a thump of snow tonight. Something like 2-4 inches. It's impossible to forecast this and impossible to know how wide or narrow this stripe of snow will be, but I think there will be a narrow band of a 2-4 inch type thump.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:16 am The latest Nam is further north and west and a tad stronger as well. This brings in the dry slot much closer especially the further south and east you live. The colder air as well that could give us a changeover for a few hours would be further northwest. Just something to watch and will keep track of the other models and surface reports as the day goes on. No Saturday football is something I must get use too until next September.

12Z GFS came in stronger and more NW also. We currently have a 1010 MB low located near the TN / MS / AL border region, which will slowly deepen as it moves NW. So the models are finally catching on to a bit stronger of a system than I originally expected. IMO, we will definitely be getting a visit from the dry slow after the front end rains move thru. Would not be surprised to see a bolt of lightening or hear a clap of thunder ahead of the cold front tonight too.

dce wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:31 pm I believe that someplace in Northwest Ohio and Eastern Indiana is going to get a thump of snow tonight. Something like 2-4 inches. It's impossible to forecast this and impossible to know how wide or narrow this stripe of snow will be, but I think there will be a narrow band of a 2-4 inch type thump.

I could see a couple of inches falling in that zone Doug, esp if we do see a stronger low to help out more with dynamic cooling in the deformation zone. Good post!

0.02" so far at CVG. 43 degrees with a stiff NE wind. Low is over West Central TN at 1008 MB. I think it'll pass thru our extreme SE counties. Most of the heavier ran continues to fall well west of our area across IN (W of I-65), ILL, and Western KY at this time.

Both CVG / DAY got to 43 and CMH 45 today.

HAPPY 55TH BIRTHDAY CLOSET METEOROLOGIST!!

I hope that you're enjoying your special day, Wxbuddy!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 5:32 pm HAPPY 55TH BIRTHDAY CLOSET METEOROLOGIST!!

I hope that you're enjoying your special day, Wxbuddy!

Thank you! Been on this thread since the Rich Apuzzo days. Fun to watch weather with yall!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 1:15 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:16 am The latest Nam is further north and west and a tad stronger as well. This brings in the dry slot much closer especially the further south and east you live. The colder air as well that could give us a changeover for a few hours would be further northwest. Just something to watch and will keep track of the other models and surface reports as the day goes on. No Saturday football is something I must get use too until next September.

12Z GFS came in stronger and more NW also. We currently have a 1010 MB low located near the TN / MS / AL border region, which will slowly deepen as it moves NW. So the models are finally catching on to a bit stronger of a system than I originally expected. IMO, we will definitely be getting a visit from the dry slow after the front end rains move thru. Would not be surprised to see a bolt of lightening or hear a clap of thunder ahead of the cold front tonight too.

Just had lightning and thunder in Maineville.

Closet Meteorologist wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:51 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 1:15 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:16 am The latest Nam is further north and west and a tad stronger as well. This brings in the dry slot much closer especially the further south and east you live. The colder air as well that could give us a changeover for a few hours would be further northwest. Just something to watch and will keep track of the other models and surface reports as the day goes on. No Saturday football is something I must get use too until next September.

12Z GFS came in stronger and more NW also. We currently have a 1010 MB low located near the TN / MS / AL border region, which will slowly deepen as it moves NW. So the models are finally catching on to a bit stronger of a system than I originally expected. IMO, we will definitely be getting a visit from the dry slow after the front end rains move thru. Would not be surprised to see a bolt of lightening or hear a clap of thunder ahead of the cold front tonight too.

Just had lightning and thunder in Maineville.

Nice! Yeah there were a few CG strikes as the band moved through. Glad I added it to the forecast yesterday morning!

Good Morning and going to be a nice cloudy damp Sunday. Two football games so the food and drink will be available. Heard thunder a little after 10pm last night followed by a burst of heavy rainfall. Storm did move further west and though we ended up locally for a nice amount folks further southeast got into the dry slot for a much longer time.

Models for the extended period and talking next week are rather far apart. See what happens later today and the gfs builds the eastern trough deeper and further west compared to the other models. Both forecasts are possible and will take a wait and see approach which I very seldom do.

Good morning all! 0.56" so far at CVG. Radar is trying to show a touch of snow just to our west with the heavier echoes. Not sure if it is making it to the ground as snow or if the snow on radar is aloft. Please post your precip type when you are able to do so this morning. Thanks!

Good Morning Les and the updated rain total is 0.76. Light rain here but you can see those heavier echos just to the north and west like you mentioned.

Per SPC meso analysis, the low is in WVA at 1004 MB and the 700 MB low is just SE of Cincinnati. The deform band on the backside is about to swing thru. We would be seeing some snow today if we had any cold air to work with. Sigh... 925 MB temps to our west are cold enough for snow and 850 MB temps are cold enough also. We would need a heavy precip rate for snow though right now. 38 degrees IMBY with mid 30s to our West so if we do see any flakes, no problems are expected this morning minus the rain and wet roads of course.

EDIT: Thanks Tim for the updated rainfall at CVG.

Temp dropped 4 degrees the past hour and going to be a windy day as well. No doubt it will feel like winter again. Agree Les no problems at all and hopefully someone gets a quick 30 minute changeover to at least accumulate on the grass.

A quick update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface low in south central Ohio with the upper low tilted
back closer to Lexington early this morning will all track east
northeast through the day. This will result in precipitation
moving back across the area. Most of this will continue to be
rain, but there could be enough cooling to allow for some snow
to mix in generally along and north of I-70, as well as into
southeast Indiana.

Strong pressure gradient on the northern/western side of the low
will cause winds to strengthen and become gusty today.
Temperatures will slowly fall well into the morning before
steadying out in the afternoon.