Absolute Vorticity

12Z NAM seems to be the furthest north with the ULL (although not far enough). It tracks the ULL thru KY whereas the overnight GFS had it over TN. Still some differences in the guidance which you would expect since today is only Tuesday. Overnight CMC was a good blend between the two while the Euro was more like the GFS.

Longer term talk:

Per the Aussies, the MJO is now in Phase 1 as of 12/24 and at a decent amplitude. AO and NAO are now negative are are expected to stay there thru the next 2 weeks. PNA is positive but it will drop towards neutral in time. I think we will have chances in the first 10 days of January. After that we may go thru a brief warm spell where we await the impacts of the SSW later in the month. The MJO may go into the warmer phases again as well. We'll see. For now, let's see if we can cash in during the 1st 10 days of the new year.

12Z GFS is a tad further to the north with the ULL, but not nearly enough to help us out at this time.

12Z Euro is weaker, but also a bump north with the ULL. Again, not far enough north to help us out.

Even if the low takes the best path , there are so many obstacles to overcome

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 1:22 pm Even if the low takes the best path , there are so many obstacles to overcome

I wish the ULL was stronger. It would make cold air production more easy. This ULL is not one of the strongest in the world. Also, the amount of precip isn't as good as it was a couple of days ago. Third surface temps and ground temps aren't very cold. Does that about cover it?

ENSO weekly update from CPC

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:16 am Good morning all! I'm alive and kicking... well somewhat. I just got a chance to look at the overnight models and the ULL is indeed south of us unfortunately. So a few rain and snow showers are all we are going to get should that hold as you guys have already mentioned.

Homemade chicken-noodle soup should give you a boost.

For Christmas Day lunch my folks and I had some Chunky chicken-noodle soup, Jello cups, and iced tea since my mom has a cold. This morning I started feeling like I have a cold, too. Prayerfully we'll feel much better soon.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:38 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:16 am Good morning all! I'm alive and kicking... well somewhat. I just got a chance to look at the overnight models and the ULL is indeed south of us unfortunately. So a few rain and snow showers are all we are going to get should that hold as you guys have already mentioned.

Homemade chicken-noodle soup should give you a boost.

True. It's just when I am sick, I never feel like eating. Under normal circumstances, I like to eat LOL

Same with my mom, Bro. Today I feel like I'm coming down with one, too.

Prayerfully we'll all feel much better soon!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 2:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:38 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 9:16 am Good morning all! I'm alive and kicking... well somewhat. I just got a chance to look at the overnight models and the ULL is indeed south of us unfortunately. So a few rain and snow showers are all we are going to get should that hold as you guys have already mentioned.

Homemade chicken-noodle soup should give you a boost.

True. It's just when I am sick, I never feel like eating. Under normal circumstances, I like to eat LOL

Same with my mom, Bro. Today I feel like I'm coming down with one, too.

Prayerfully we'll all feel much better soon!

My Mom is sick too and the local Dr. office is so busy right now, she had to get a virtual visit online. I think a lot of sicknesses are running around right now. Hopefully, we all start to feel better soon!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 1:22 pm Even if the low takes the best path , there are so many obstacles to overcome

True! This is a tricky setup since we don’t have a cold airmass in place. The factors that Les mentioned are spot on.

Been drizzling/light rain here since about 1pm

52 here with mostly cloudy skies. Warmest it has been all day.

EDIT: Sun is out now lol

18Z GFS has a little rain / snow mix on NYD. Too bad the upper low does not phase with the southern slider.

12Z EPS in its long range is active and just cold enough for snow. Many members show a monster snow storm in the January 6-8th time frame. Check out the snowfall mean lol

Good evening from tropical Northern Wisconsin where the current temp is 35. No snow though they are trying to make some on the highest hills and maybe ready for folks this weekend. Have not look at anything being on the road today but hopefully by Wednesday morning I will have enough time to take a guess lol. Opening presents on Wednesday and will head back home on Saturday. Hope everyone starts feeling better and we have grandchild that is sick but most everyone else is doing fine.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 6:12 pm Good evening from tropical Northern Wisconsin where the current temp is 35. No snow though they are trying to make some on the highest hills and maybe ready for folks this weekend. Have not look at anything being on the road today but hopefully by Wednesday morning I will have enough time to take a guess lol. Opening presents on Wednesday and will head back home on Saturday. Hope everyone starts feeling better and we have grandchild that is sick but most everyone else is doing fine.

Glad to hear that you made it there safely Tim! Enjoy the time with your family. Hopefully, you will bring back some good model juju!

Overnight models are more supportive of snow, and I think our best window would be tomorrow night into Friday morning and even Friday night into Saturday morning for any accumulations. Sun down and colder temps. Not really going to change my forecast at this point. Sticking with mixed rain and snow showers with little to no accumulation. We’ll see what the 12z guidance shows in order to make any necessary forecast adjustments.

Got a bonus .25” from yesterday’s gloomy day . I’ll take every bit I can get

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 5:17 am Overnight models are more supportive of snow, and I think our best window would be tomorrow night into Friday morning and even Friday night into Saturday morning for any accumulations. Sun down and colder temps. Not really going to change my forecast at this point. Sticking with mixed rain and snow showers with little to no accumulation. We’ll see what the 12z guidance shows in order to make any necessary forecast adjustments.

Good morning Trev... it still looks marginal to me and the heavier precip remains to our west and SW closer to the ULL. Hope to see the 12Z guidance change but as of this post I am not very enthusiastic.

Good morning to all! Let's all wish a very happy birthday to Joe! Hope you have a great day!!! The weather looks nice for it with some sunshine later on and highs near 50, but I am sure you would rather see some snow.

I just got done looking over the overnight guidance, and I don't really see any snowy signals on the Operational models in the extended range, but the Ensembles do look pretty good! The EPS in particular looks very interesting with several shortwaves coming through the area with a -EPO and -NAO signatures. The GEFS is not quite as nice as the EPS, but still a very workable pattern. It is too far out in weather model time to know exactly what will happen but I still have hope for snow at some point during the first 10 days of the new year.

HB WSJ!!!!


Almost out of this awful temp regime, and going into the closer to (average)normal air mass. ATM looks like it goes to the 10th+-. Not venturing past that , only to say by then Canada (southern) gets near normal, a huge improvement, should have slight -NAO another improvement. Just a matter of getting a proper sustaining -EPO, which ensembles have backed off of atm , just talking airmass , doesn’t mean we can’t see snow chances

Happy Birthday Joe! Not much happening in the short range except a pesky upper low sort of floating around the center of the country. Sure we can get a quick dusting if the snow happens overnight especially Thursday into Friday but road temps still above the 32 degree mark. Longer term and its funny in a neutral enso pattern the gfs loves to throw out those snow storms days in advance which usually never happen. With the current El Nino the gfs seldom throws those out. Why and not sure exactly but comes down to getting the two jets to play ball and playing in our backyard. That is why I believe some of the bigger storms this season will be sort of last minute storms and the models see it in the 2-4 day range. Not easy following each piece of energy but I do watch the ones that head into southwest that bring with it tons of energy. Sometimes these get torn apart by the mountains but form once again if the core is not totally ripped apart.

Still believe the first 10 days or so of the month we get a couple of chances of snow and then do we see a break in the action. Still the lack of snow on the ground north and west of us is a concern because air masses can warm up quickly without the snow cover. We will have some of the tellies in our favor but if the mjo continues to move does it end up heading towards the warm phases or head back into the COD. The SSW event and what happens with this can make or break a seasonal forecast.