Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:38 pm I got lucky with the Sunday event this year with 5-6" and in Feb 2021 with that localized snow event of 10". Other then that we have not had a region wide crippler since March of 2008.

Unfortunately with the current climate cycle we're in , thunderstorms during our winter months in the OV are more common than snow storms

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:42 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:38 pm I got lucky with the Sunday event this year with 5-6" and in Feb 2021 with that localized snow event of 10". Other then that we have not had a region wide crippler since March of 2008.

Unfortunately with the current climate cycle we're in , thunderstorms during our winter months in the OV are more common than snow storms

Sad, but very true!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:42 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:38 pm I got lucky with the Sunday event this year with 5-6" and in Feb 2021 with that localized snow event of 10". Other then that we have not had a region wide crippler since March of 2008.

Unfortunately with the current climate cycle we're in , thunderstorms during our winter months in the OV are more common than snow storms

Just to add on to Bgoney's comment about thunderstorms. I agree more during the winter months but so much less in the spring and summer.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:58 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:42 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:38 pm I got lucky with the Sunday event this year with 5-6" and in Feb 2021 with that localized snow event of 10". Other then that we have not had a region wide crippler since March of 2008.

Unfortunately with the current climate cycle we're in , thunderstorms during our winter months in the OV are more common than snow storms

Just to add on to Bgoney's comment about thunderstorms. I agree more during the winter months but so much less in the spring and summer.

The trend has been for colder springs. We've had snow in March and April the last few years. If we don't get out of the current pattern we're in, we will have more warmth and severe wx for sure. I'm not buying the SSW event changing much of anything unless it actually propagates down into the troposphere as I said earlier today in my rant. The MJO has never once made it into Phase 8 this winter despite modeling suggesting that it does. Even if it does this time, it won't stay there for long anyway as I also said earlier. I could be flat out wrong and I would love to be wrong, but I'm just not seeing much for snow lovers going forward even in the first week of March.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:58 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:42 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:38 pm I got lucky with the Sunday event this year with 5-6" and in Feb 2021 with that localized snow event of 10". Other then that we have not had a region wide crippler since March of 2008.

Unfortunately with the current climate cycle we're in , thunderstorms during our winter months in the OV are more common than snow storms

Just to add on to Bgoney's comment about thunderstorms. I agree more during the winter months but so much less in the spring and summer.

Hello Tim , I would agree with your statement also , by a substantial margin ,especially nighttime thunderstorms

[/quote]

The trend has been for colder springs. We've had snow in March and April the last few years. If we don't get out of the current pattern we're in, we will have more warmth and severe wx for sure. I'm not buying the SSW event changing much of anything unless it actually propagates down into the troposphere as I said earlier today in my rant. The MJO has never once made it into Phase 8 this winter despite modeling suggesting that it does. Even if it does this time, it won't stay there for long anyway as I also said earlier. I could be flat out wrong and I would love to be wrong, but I'm just not seeing much for snow lovers going forward even in the first week of March.
[/quote]


We've had one brief good 500mb pattern -EPO/-NAO/-AO. The rest of the time it's been a rather lengthy Aleutian Low pattern or the one we currently are in and can't escape

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 5:24 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:58 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:42 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:38 pm I got lucky with the Sunday event this year with 5-6" and in Feb 2021 with that localized snow event of 10". Other then that we have not had a region wide crippler since March of 2008.

Unfortunately with the current climate cycle we're in , thunderstorms during our winter months in the OV are more common than snow storms

Just to add on to Bgoney's comment about thunderstorms. I agree more during the winter months but so much less in the spring and summer.

Hello Tim , I would agree with your statement also , by a substantial margin ,especially nighttime thunderstorms

Hey Bgoney, you are correct and I just remember as a young lad having several episodes of thunderstorms at night each year and the kind that would train and it would go on for many hours.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 5:37 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 5:24 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:58 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:42 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:38 pm I got lucky with the Sunday event this year with 5-6" and in Feb 2021 with that localized snow event of 10". Other then that we have not had a region wide crippler since March of 2008.

Unfortunately with the current climate cycle we're in , thunderstorms during our winter months in the OV are more common than snow storms

Just to add on to Bgoney's comment about thunderstorms. I agree more during the winter months but so much less in the spring and summer.

Hello Tim , I would agree with your statement also , by a substantial margin ,especially nighttime thunderstorms

Hey Bgoney, you are correct and I just remember as a young lad having several episodes of thunderstorms at night each year and the kind that would train and it would go on for many hours.

Yes sir and back then we had no AC so the windows were wide open and you heard the snap and then house rattling thunder like you were out in the middle of it all

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 5:37 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 5:24 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:58 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:42 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:38 pm I got lucky with the Sunday event this year with 5-6" and in Feb 2021 with that localized snow event of 10". Other then that we have not had a region wide crippler since March of 2008.

Unfortunately with the current climate cycle we're in , thunderstorms during our winter months in the OV are more common than snow storms

Just to add on to Bgoney's comment about thunderstorms. I agree more during the winter months but so much less in the spring and summer.

Hello Tim , I would agree with your statement also , by a substantial margin ,especially nighttime thunderstorms

Hey Bgoney, you are correct and I just remember as a young lad having several episodes of thunderstorms at night each year and the kind that would train and it would go on for many hours.

Growing up in the late 70's and 80's I remember having many more thunderstorms in the spring and, like you said, at night. A different time than when we grew up. I know you, Tim, go back a bit farther than me. I wish there was a way to compare the number of thunderstorms from that era until now like we can compare snow from that era until now. I'm guessing we had many more thunderstorms in 60's, 70's , and 80's.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 5:57 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 5:37 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 5:24 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:58 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:42 pm


Unfortunately with the current climate cycle we're in , thunderstorms during our winter months in the OV are more common than snow storms

Just to add on to Bgoney's comment about thunderstorms. I agree more during the winter months but so much less in the spring and summer.

Hello Tim , I would agree with your statement also , by a substantial margin ,especially nighttime thunderstorms

Hey Bgoney, you are correct and I just remember as a young lad having several episodes of thunderstorms at night each year and the kind that would train and it would go on for many hours.

Growing up in the late 70's and 80's I remember having many more thunderstorms in the spring and, like you said, at night. A different time than when we grew up. I know you, Tim, go back a bit farther than me. I wish there was a way to compare the number of thunderstorms from that era until now like we can compare snow from that era until now. I'm guessing we had many more thunderstorms in 60's, 70's , and 80's.

Doug I believe many more and most folks never had AC. I believe older folks even older than me love thunderstorms because it reminds them of childhood and I still love sitting outside under cover when we have a thundershower.

BREAKING WEATHER NEWS. The first time in many many weeks where I saw the forecast for the local area predicted to be near normal in the 8-14 day range. I will be taking bets later this evening.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 3:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 1:16 pm Looking at the rest of the 12Z suite, I am finding absolutely nothing for snow lovers to get excited about. I can't even find a chance for snow let alone something interesting. I hate to call it quits on February 16th so I won't, but at the same time, it is looking bleak. GFS, GEFS and CMC don't show anything interesting to me at all. 12Z Euro is running now and even if it did show something, it would be on an island of its own anyway. The rest of February looks to be more of the same IMO as to what we have seen for weeks and weeks now. A cold day or two embedded within 5 warmer days, that kind of thing. A couple of systems coming thru each week one weak the other stronger. This winter can't get over quick enough for me. Other then the cold shot in November, the Christmas Blizzard, and one cold period in January where we threaded the needle (and not everyone got hit, see Eastern and SE Counties for that pain), winter has been virtually non-existent for us. I would welcome a snow storm in March with open arms obviously but at this time, IMO it'll be like betting the long shot at the track.

I would like to agree with your sentiments. Another bad winter in a long line of frustrating winters around here. Every winter since 14-15, in my opinion, has been frustrating. Sure, we've seen a few decent storms here and there, but the winters, overall, have been frustrating. It's the longest stretch of frustrating winters I can recall, for me personally, since the late 80's into the early 90's. It will turn around at some point. If you look back at history, we go through stretches where we string together several years of average to above average snowfall. Then we hit a period of average to below average for several years. That's why we have averages. If we could pull out one 4-6 inch storm from the rest of this bad winter I would be happy. Otherwise, bring on the 70's and 80's everyday.

I agree let's bring on the sunshine and warmer weather. If it ain't snowing I'd rather be mowing. if we are not mowing it better be snowing. These gray days are just depressing without snow falling especially in February. Plus I don't like sitting around not doing anything. Although the break has been nice it's getting boring.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 5:32 pm We've had one brief good 500mb pattern -EPO/-NAO/-AO. The rest of the time it's been a rather lengthy Aleutian Low pattern or the one we currently are in and can't escape

I agree and that's what helped cause the Christmas Blizzard.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2023 6:21 pm BREAKING WEATHER NEWS. The first time in many many weeks where I saw the forecast for the local area predicted to be near normal in the 8-14 day range. I will be taking bets later this evening.

Normals for CVG by then are highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the upper 20s. We are to the point now that you actually need below normal temps for snow.

60 degrees IMBY just ahead of the front. Front is still west of us getting close to our Western counties.

My gauge picked up .48"

Currently at 41 here in G'ville and progged for around 25 Fri morning. The high Fri only topping out at around the freezing mark.

Good morning all! A chilly day indeed and it only feels that way since we haven't had a lot of it this winter. It's nothing out of the ordinary for mid Feb. A chilly Sat morning but otherwise a nice weekend and Pres. Day on tap with 40s warming into the 50s again. Showers are possible Tues but become more likely Wed into Thurs morning with another warm front / cold front combo. We should spike into the 60s again ahead of that system. By next weekend, GFS and CMC "try" to bring in some wintry with the Euro keeping the rain train going in the longer term.

Good Morning Les. Looks like about 6/10 of an inch of rain here this morning in Greenville. I believe Greenville has become the new Seattle in terms of rainfall. Les your post is dead on and the only thing I will add is if the milder temps continue for much longer many trees will start to bloom and this is way too early as we know somewhere down the line we are going to have temps in the low-mid 20's at sometime and this could no doubt hurt some of the trees. Still no blooms down here but my guess next week could be a different story. Not sure exactly when the normal time for trees to bloom is down here but may guess early March seems correct.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 8:15 am Good Morning Les. Looks like about 6/10 of an inch of rain here this morning in Greenville. I believe Greenville has become the new Seattle in terms of rainfall. Les your post is dead on and the only thing I will add is if the milder temps continue for much longer many trees will start to bloom and this is way too early as we know somewhere down the line we are going to have temps in the low-mid 20's at sometime and this could no doubt hurt some of the trees. Still no blooms down here but my guess next week could be a different story. Not sure exactly when the normal time for trees to bloom is down here but may guess early March seems correct.

Good morning Tim! My maple tree has buds on it that will be the new helicopter seeds in spring. Bushes in front of the house have a few buds on them now which will become new leaves later on. I don't have any daffodils or tulips, etc but if I did, I'd bet anything they would be poking up by now. Grass is greening up from yesterdays rain as I mentioned before. Another week or two of mild weather and rain and if we do get a hard freeze after that, there will no doubt be some problems for trees and plants. The things I am seeing IMBY are probably 3 weeks early at least.

Here's the latest on spring leaf anomalies. You can extrapolate that into our region when the time comes for sure , and then the reason why

We are absolutely in Phase 7 of the MJO now. I'm not convinced we make it to 8. Most of the modeling has it trying but it goes into the neutral circle, then does a loop and re-emerges back into Phase 7 at a higher amplitude sometime in the first week of March. Phase 7 is no good for snow lovers. It is a mild and wet pattern for us. The -NAO does build in mind you but the problem is that the Aleutian Ridge is still driving the pacific pattern and the -PNA will definitely continue with the trough locked into the West. There are even some hints way out there in fantasy land of the -NAO ridge hooking up with the SE ridge so in other words a major torch would develop. We saw this happen back in January actually. You might get a small window late Feb or early March with a well timed short wave as we go into this pattern, but other then getting lucky during that time, things continue to look very bleak for snow lovers. I am also not buying any help from the SSW event either. It appears that at the 10 MB level it happened yesterday 2/16 but I highly doubt it's going to help us since I am not convinced it will get down into the troposphere. I am trying to find an updated map that Bgoney usually posts. Bgoney if you have time and see this post, please post that map, the same one you did a few pages back to see if there are any changes. Thanks!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 17, 2023 9:22 am Here's the latest on spring leaf anomalies. You can extrapolate that into our region when the time comes for sure , and then the reason why


Screenshot_20230217-090959_YouTube.jpg
Screenshot_20230217-091019_YouTube.jpg

Great Map and though I believe the maps are accurate here in Greenville no tree buds to be found. Always going to have a few places that are not what the maps show but overall my guess the maps are correct. Temps down here have been about 5 degrees above normal but the amount of sunshine may be the reason very few buds..

Here are the temp. anomalies at CVG for the core winter months of Dec, Jan, and so far in Feb.

Dec: -0.2 degrees and that would have been above normal too if it wasn't for that big time arctic outbreak around Christmas.
Jan: +7.0 degrees
Feb thru 2/16: +6.8 degrees

The map above is a great showing of how mother nature is doing her job. Many places in the east well above normal but many places in the Rocky Mountains well below normal. Of course the amount of people living in the east is much greater of course but as we have seen over the past 20-30 years more folks moving south.

Polar vortex status
The SPV is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA5 record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -9.4 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: -9.1 m/s 2018


Still no signs of reversal into the troposphere but a prolonged reversal in the stratosphere. So to me this will remain a displacement and not a split and so probably the effects at ground level will be delayed to the back half of March into April