Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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Trev, can you get some info from your friend at ILN on what qpf they're expecting in snow. We can then figure out how much effects they are thinking the winds will have on ratios. This is basically the difference in forecasters thinking of snowfall amounts here , TV forecasts and Noaa offices. Kuchera is useless in this situation .
Models continue to bust in that regard. Front is coming thru at least an hour earlier in some areas and temps are avg. 10 degrees colder then guidance as well.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:36 am Just checking some pressure falls and so fall nothing drastic as we don't expect the big falls until later today. The front is in west central Illinois already so the front is moving and would not surprise me if the time period is moved up by and hour or so and especially if the system does not get cranking until a few hours later than expected.
Yes , yet another factor in the snowfall equation we have to equatetron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:33 amGreat post here!tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:29 am So far like most systems there have been busts both ways and even less than 50 miles apart in some areas. Will watch pressure changes today which is critical in seeing where a low pressure may form. Want to see if the noon models are going to raise precip totals or lower them and this is another piece of the puzzle. I love systems that are getting stronger as it heads this way and though this is more of a system getting stronger while its in our neighborhood. Once this storm really starts to get going you don't always have that straight west to east line of cold but instead cold is wrapping around the system and the cold will move in from the southwest to northeast. That is key to folks say in Columbus because you may stay liquid a little longer if that timing is correct.
To be honest, nothing is handling this extremely accurately.mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:38 am Is there a way to verify which model is handling this correctly so far?
Good Morning Les and should be an exciting day and already went to 2 Kroger's and both have very few eggs left and my guess is folks went grocery shopping earlier than normal for eggs,milk. Concerning the Kuchera method and I look at it but never use it for forecasting snow. I see where folks in Indy have lowered totals and sped up the arrival of the front.
Kroger's was tough here yesterday.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:42 amGood Morning Les and should be an exciting day and already went to 2 Kroger's and both have very few eggs left and my guess is folks went grocery shopping earlier than normal for eggs,milk. Concerning the Kuchera method and I look at it but never use it for forecasting snow. I see where folks in Indy have lowered totals and sped up the arrival of the front.
Better then waiting until today.I went shopping for a few things last night at the Springdale Rd Krogers, there were almost no eggs, bread aisle was decimated, there were entire cases/bins in the produce section that were completely empty including potatoes. I don't remember ever seeing it like that, but then, I generally don't shop when it's supposed to snow.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:42 amGood Morning Les and should be an exciting day and already went to 2 Kroger's and both have very few eggs left and my guess is folks went grocery shopping earlier than normal for eggs,milk. Concerning the Kuchera method and I look at it but never use it for forecasting snow. I see where folks in Indy have lowered totals and sped up the arrival of the front.
Kuchera is absolutely useless in this situationtron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:45 amKroger's was tough here yesterday.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:42 amGood Morning Les and should be an exciting day and already went to 2 Kroger's and both have very few eggs left and my guess is folks went grocery shopping earlier than normal for eggs,milk. Concerning the Kuchera method and I look at it but never use it for forecasting snow. I see where folks in Indy have lowered totals and sped up the arrival of the front.
Let's enjoy this one no matter what happens because from a Metrological standpoint, it's going to be very interesting over the next 24 to 36 hours.It should be a very powdery, dry, sandy type of snow. Like grains of sugar once the temps really drop. Too bad about the wind, because those ratios would have been awesome if it weren't for that. However as a trade-off, some of us will be seeing white out conditions so that'll be a nice treat as long as you're not out in it.
Les that is key and believe that is why you see one run models go up with snow totals and the next run it goes down. That is a serious piece of energy imo and where the energy goes makes a difference in when this storm cranks up. The one thing lacking with this system has been moisture. Part of that problem is the system on the east coast and if that would have moved away we could have got a better flow off the gom but that is not to be with this system so yes we get the lift with the front itself and then we need the correct timing of when the system really cranks up
No doubt , those first 2 or 3 hours are going to be epic, in one way I wish it was during daylight hours, but in the other its better timing for travelerstron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:50 amIt should be a very powdery, dry, sandy type of snow. Like grains of sugar once the temps really drop. Too bad about the wind, because those ratios would have been awesome if it weren't for that. However as a trade-off, some of us will be seeing white out conditions so that'll be a nice treat as long as you're not out in it.
Agreed! I'm tired, but this snow weenie is going to stay up for a little while to witness some of this.Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:54 amNo doubt , those first 2 or 3 hours are going to be epic, in one way I wish it was during daylight hours, but in the other its better timing for travelerstron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:50 amIt should be a very powdery, dry, sandy type of snow. Like grains of sugar once the temps really drop. Too bad about the wind, because those ratios would have been awesome if it weren't for that. However as a trade-off, some of us will be seeing white out conditions so that'll be a nice treat as long as you're not out in it.
Exactly right Tim, great post once again. That is why it is going to be tough in our area for someone to get over 6". Had the Gulf be wide open it would have been a different story. Although, the warm tongue of death may have killed us anyway.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 22, 2022 8:52 amLes that is key and believe that is why you see one run models go up with snow totals and the next run it goes down. That is a serious piece of energy imo and where the energy goes makes a difference in when this storm cranks up. The one thing lacking with this system has been moisture. Part of that problem is the system on the east coast and if that would have moved away we could have got a better flow off the gom but that is not to be with this system so yes we get the lift with the front itself and then we need the correct timing of when the system really cranks up
Great Advice!!! I tell my kids this all the time but they never listen to poor old dad and must find out the hard way