Absolute Vorticity

46 today here that was it thanks to the cloud cover. Not sure how low we'll drop tonight thanks to said clouds, but it won't matter since they will be back on the increase tomorrow with rain moving in late in the day / evening hours. Then it wraps up after the front passes Wed late morning to midday time period. Windy tomorrow and Wed as well to end November.

Was a true November day here. Raw, mist falling at times, ugly, damp, bone chilling. lol

Some great news here as we near the end of Nov and into Met. winter. Northern Hemispheric Snowcover is at its highest extend in 56 years!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:35 pm Some great news here as we near the end of Nov and into Met. winter. Northern Hemispheric Snowcover is at its highest extend in 56 years!

Les we have talked about this quite often and much of Canada has been snowy since Oct but Siberia got a early start in Oct but really hit the payload here in November. To me getting snow in November in the northern regions of the globe is more important than Oct. One reason is the snow seldom melts up there if you are getting decent snows in mid-November compared to early Oct where there is still plenty of warmth and sun to melt the snow. Does it have anything to do with blocking in the upcoming winter is really something I would need to research more and not sure how research has already been done.

Tim,

I don't know if it helps or not in the production of a -NAO. But I bet it can't hurt. We know it helps with the production of cold air masses and cold high pressure systems. Anyway, I found this on Fairbanks's Facebook page and immediately thought of you.

If you thought Denali couldn't be more spectacular... Think again! Denali's gorgeous shadow was seen stretched over 50 miles earlier today, caught on satellite imagery provided by CIRA! 🏔 #AKwx

I'd love to see AK in the winter, but I am crossing an item off my bucket list. I am going on an AK Cruise next August for vacation! I can't wait! Doing some excursions too like halibut fishing, a train ride, ATV Riding, all kinds of cool stuff. Got the drink package too. Gonna be awesome and I will take pics! Anyway back to weather and get ready to get busy talking about our favorite topic very soon on our forum.

Good morning all! Cloudy to start but a peak or two of sun should get us towards 60 degrees. The storminess tonight will be an overnight event while you're trying to sleep. I still believe the greatest severe threat will be well SW of us, but the SPC has moved the marginal risk area more northward now to cover more of our counties. So yeah, a strong storm is possible tonight. winds will be 40-50 mph in gusts seen without storms being present.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:35 pm Some great news here as we near the end of Nov and into Met. winter. Northern Hemispheric Snowcover is at its highest extend in 56 years!

This guy and many other scientists who questioned the religion of AGWs were censored or banned from Twitter by the so called fact checkers who have now been fired. Thank goodness for Elon

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:02 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:35 pm Some great news here as we near the end of Nov and into Met. winter. Northern Hemispheric Snowcover is at its highest extend in 56 years!

This guy and many other scientists who questioned the religion of AGWs were censored or banned from Twitter by the so called fact checkers who have now been fired. Thank goodness for Elon

Yes sir! It is indeed good to hear science being allowed to speak freely again.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:02 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 7:35 pm Some great news here as we near the end of Nov and into Met. winter. Northern Hemispheric Snowcover is at its highest extend in 56 years!

This guy and many other scientists who questioned the religion of AGWs were censored or banned from Twitter by the so called fact checkers who have now been fired. Thank goodness for Elon

No doubt this is a great thing to happen.

In case others have missed our discussion with this next system... we do have a marginal risk out for Tues night. I never did post a graphic but will do so now.

12Z NAM spitting out 0.29" for CVG for this next system.

12Z GFS gives CVG 0.47"

Future radar on How things may unfold later today from NAM

They are talking about issuing a PDS Tornado Watch down in MS. We don't see that often in November.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1978.html

12Z Euro coming in with 0.93" for rainfall at CVG for tonight into tomorrow. That is a little overdone for my liking as the front will be moving quickly, plus the idea of severe storms over the deep south, robing us of some of the moisture up here.

they are talking about 40-50 mph wind gusts here tomorrow. that is going to be a problem

No changes for me with a range of .25-.75" for the region. The idea with the lower end and Southern storms cutting off some qpf and with the upper end of isolated rounds of brief but heavy showers

Clouds are now increasing from the south and west ahead of a batch of showers and isolated heavier downpours, Nothing severe ix expected with this first batch of activity that is due in this evening. The strong storm threat is going to be with the cold frontal passage early Wed morning.

A portion of the AFD for tonight's system from the boys:

Rain details: Already observing showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms across Indiana developing within the well
advertised positive theta-e advection region east of the cold
front. Expect these to expand in coverage throughout the evening
hours as mass convergence increases ahead of the approaching
trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates advecting in from the
southwest supply enough support for mentions of thunder through
the evening and overnight. In individual cores, some small hail
is certainly possible. Rainfall amounts are generally expected
to be between 0.25-0.50 area wide with some isolated corridors
close to an inch where thunderstorms occur. The cold front
passes through the area between 2 am and 7 am, with rain coming
to an end as it passes.

Wind details: Several features support elevated winds through
the evening and into the early morning hours. The first is
associated with the enhanced flow tied to the system. Typically,
the warm air advection winds struggle to mix down to the
surface regularly, resulting in sporadic bursts of gusts. As the
showers and convection move through this evening and into the
overnight, regular gusts of 25-35 mph are forecast, but sporadic
gusts between 35-45 mph are possible. The second feature
bringing elevated wind gusts tonight is the passage of the cold
front. As the cold front passes, pressure fluctuations with the
front will result in a brief period of gusty winds along and
behind the front. Once again, locally strong wind gusts up to
35-45 mph are possible, but given the brief nature and the lack
of confidence in gusts over 45 mph, have opted to not issue an
advisory for these conditions. Will instead issue an SPS across
the whole area.

The aforementioned SPS from the boys:

...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

Southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph, with occasional gusts to around
40 mph, can be expected this evening ahead of an approaching cold
front. Additional wind gusts from the west are expected behind
the front Wednesday morning during the morning commute.

Use extra caution when driving today, especially if
operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Getting active down south in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana so far. Tornado warnings and t storm warnings.

----

If anyone down south is awake.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1028 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northern Bracken County in northern Kentucky...
Southeastern Clermont County in southwestern Ohio...
Brown County in southwestern Ohio...
Southwestern Highland County in southwestern Ohio...

* Until 1115 PM EST.

* At 1027 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Felicity,
moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Mount Orab, Bethel, Williamsburg, Augusta, Sardinia,
Felicity, Neville, Russellville, Hamersville, Mowrystown,
Higginsport, Chilo, Willow Grove, Bradford, Saltair, Point Isabel,
Feesburg and Johnsville.

0122 125 3 NNW LYONS NELSON KY 3773 8564 IMAGES OF LARGE HAIL SHARED BY BROADCAST MEDIA ON TWITTER. (LMK)

0131 100 BARDSTOWN NELSON KY 3781 8546 PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. (LMK)

0147 100 1 N HARRODSBURG MERCER KY 3778 8485 (LMK)

0155 100 PEYTONA SHELBY KY 3818 8507 QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (LMK)

0205 100 4 WSW LEXINGTON FAYETTE KY 3803 8457 BEAUMONT AREA OF LEXINGTON ... RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. (LMK)

0205 100 FRANKFORT FRANKLIN KY 3819 8487 DOWNTOWN FRANKFORT ... RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. (LMK)

0208 100 2 SE LEXINGTON FAYETTE KY 3803 8448 NEAR HENRY CLAY ESTATE ... RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. (LMK)

0211 100 1 SSE LEXINGTON FAYETTE KY 3803 8449 NUMEROUS REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN DOWNTOWN LEXINGTON ... RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. (LMK)

0215 125 4 W CLINTONVILLE FAYETTE KY 3809 8434 IMAGE OF LARGE HAIL SHARED WITH BROADCAST MEDIA ON TWITTER. (LMK)

0331 125 3 ENE FELICITY BROWN OH 3885 8404 VIEWER REPORTED HAIL LARGER THAN A QUARTER. ESTIMATED HALF DOLLAR SIZE. (ILN)