Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:10 pm

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:58 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:03 pm Good Afternoon and made it back from SC. Should be home for much of the summer. Had no chance to check on the weather since Thursday and wanted to see how the Euro and GFS were stacking up on temps as they were almost 10 degrees apart for highs for a few days this week. Winter time is one thing with timing of a cold front and that may affect highs one day but in the summer the models should never be that far apart. Looks like the gfs will continue to be winner this summer as the Euro is listening to much to Al Gore. With the somewhat lower dew points compared to last week and the ground is somewhat drier but not horrible I could see a day where we get to 93 or 94 but the heat index not crazy like last week and maybe we hit 100 on Wednesday. So no doubt it has been much hotter than I expected for June but again this is not global warming Al talks about but just mother nature doing her normal stuff to keep this planet in balance. The media is just a platform and they have no clue about climate or the every day changes in the weather. Has it been warmer over the past 30 years and yes but mainly because of water vapor in the air which means more clouds and precip and warmer temps at night and milder temps in the arctic as more precip is falling in the form of snow. Such a short period and its like an eye dropper of water in the pacific ocean.

Much of the above average temperatures have been night time temps running much above normal. I believe you are correct about the water vapor theory. Joe Bastardi is there first person I heard to mention the increased water vapor causing night time temperatures to increase.

Great post Doug... I agree with you and Tim on this. Our nighttime lows are certainly skewing more on the warmer side. Much more then the daytime highs. In addition to water vapor, UHI effect in some areas is also a contributing factor. NWS Sensors should be moved in some places. Take Louisville for a perfect example. The UHI effect is very real there with the official sensor being at Standiford Field in downtown Louisville. That temp and it's data is 100% not representative of their forecast area. You can say the same in some cases for CVG for the Cincinnati area. Dayton (DAY) and Columbus (CMH) probably have some of the same issues. LOU is a prime example because it's very obvious in the data how badly it is skewed due to bad sensor placement. If we could correct these issues, you'd see the numbers come back down a little bit in my opinion and the data would not be skewed so badly.

Definitely in the UHI camp for skewed nighttime temps worldwide , thus attributing to the warmer temps the last 40 years

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:11 pm After watching channel 5 and they show 98 and 99 the next two days I told my wife I would streak in the neighborhood if it reaches 99 on Wednesday. Her reply was why would you punish the neighbors.

I cannot see us getting past 94 or so.

Looks like most of the showers / t-storms activity for Wed will be south of I-70.

Hopefully we'll see some here... the lawn needs a drink so I don't have to open my pocketbook. Low 90s expected today with a slight increase in humidity. Low to mid 90s tomorrow ahead of the front with the highest humidity of the week. 80s for Thurs... 90ish for Fri then back to the low and mid 90s with the high humidity again this weekend. Next front due in for storms on Sunday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:30 am Hopefully we'll see some here... the lawn needs a drink so I don't have to open my pocketbook. Low 90s expected today with a slight increase in humidity. Low to mid 90s tomorrow ahead of the front with the highest humidity of the week. 80s for Thurs... 90ish for Fri then back to the low and mid 90s with the high humidity again this weekend. Next front due in for storms on Sunday.

Great Post Les and forecast looks great. We trash the gfs quite often in the winter and there are many reasons why. The Euro needs to be trashed more in the summer. It missed last week and I do not see us getting almost 40 degrees warmer from the overnight low. Yes going to be a quick rise today and since dew points are still nice the temp will spike. The problem with the Euro is it never puts in vegetation in its equation. Yes we are starting to get drier but all in all the vegetation is still rather lush.

Les the good thing is today we have the most daylight hours available so starting on Wednesday we are heading towards winter lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:30 am Hopefully we'll see some here... the lawn needs a drink so I don't have to open my pocketbook. Low 90s expected today with a slight increase in humidity. Low to mid 90s tomorrow ahead of the front with the highest humidity of the week. 80s for Thurs... 90ish for Fri then back to the low and mid 90s with the high humidity again this weekend. Next front due in for storms on Sunday.

Great Post Les and forecast looks great. We trash the gfs quite often in the winter and there are many reasons why. The Euro needs to be trashed more in the summer. It missed last week and I do not see us getting almost 40 degrees warmer from the overnight low. Yes going to be a quick rise today and since dew points are still nice the temp will spike. The problem with the Euro is it never puts in vegetation in its equation. Yes we are starting to get drier but all in all the vegetation is still rather lush.

Les the good thing is today we have the most daylight hours available so starting on Wednesday we are heading towards winter lol.

Good morning Tim! Yes Sir... Summer began this morning officially at 5:13am. It'll take a while, but we are finally heading back our way. Temp averages will take another month or so before they start dropping. I think in July and the first few weeks of Aug, our highest avg is 86 / 66 then those will begin to slowly drop as well. UGH... we have a long way to go but it's a start!

Model wise... the GFS has been better then the Euro overall esp with temps. Euro has consistently been too hot because it mixes the airmass much more then the GFS and has lower dew points. If we were in a big drought then the Euro would end up being right. But we're not. If we get missed this week then D0 is in our future but otherwise, as long as we get something, we're fine in that regard.

BG StormTalk!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:48 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 20, 2022 6:11 pm After watching channel 5 and they show 98 and 99 the next two days I told my wife I would streak in the neighborhood if it reaches 99 on Wednesday. Her reply was why would you punish the neighbors.

I cannot see us getting past 94 or so.

Big sigh of relief from Tim's neighbors!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:45 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:30 am Hopefully we'll see some here... the lawn needs a drink so I don't have to open my pocketbook. Low 90s expected today with a slight increase in humidity. Low to mid 90s tomorrow ahead of the front with the highest humidity of the week. 80s for Thurs... 90ish for Fri then back to the low and mid 90s with the high humidity again this weekend. Next front due in for storms on Sunday.

Great Post Les and forecast looks great. We trash the gfs quite often in the winter and there are many reasons why. The Euro needs to be trashed more in the summer. It missed last week and I do not see us getting almost 40 degrees warmer from the overnight low. Yes going to be a quick rise today and since dew points are still nice the temp will spike. The problem with the Euro is it never puts in vegetation in its equation. Yes we are starting to get drier but all in all the vegetation is still rather lush.

Les the good thing is today we have the most daylight hours available so starting on Wednesday we are heading towards winter lol.

Good morning Tim! Yes Sir... Summer began this morning officially at 5:13am. It'll take a while, but we are finally heading back our way. Temp averages will take another month or so before they start dropping. I think in July and the first few weeks of Aug, our highest avg is 86 / 66 then those will begin to slowly drop as well. UGH... we have a long way to go but it's a start!

Model wise... the GFS has been better then the Euro overall esp with temps. Euro has consistently been too hot because it mixes the airmass much more then the GFS and has lower dew points. If we were in a big drought then the Euro would end up being right. But we're not. If we get missed this week then D0 is in our future but otherwise, as long as we get something, we're fine in that regard.

During last week's heat stretch, John Gumm was blowing the horns on his Facebook about the temps being really high, and I said to him then that he had to know that was wrong due to how moist the soil was throughout the region. I think he has been sucked in to being a Euro hugger like Kevin at Channel 5 is.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:05 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:45 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:30 am Hopefully we'll see some here... the lawn needs a drink so I don't have to open my pocketbook. Low 90s expected today with a slight increase in humidity. Low to mid 90s tomorrow ahead of the front with the highest humidity of the week. 80s for Thurs... 90ish for Fri then back to the low and mid 90s with the high humidity again this weekend. Next front due in for storms on Sunday.

Great Post Les and forecast looks great. We trash the gfs quite often in the winter and there are many reasons why. The Euro needs to be trashed more in the summer. It missed last week and I do not see us getting almost 40 degrees warmer from the overnight low. Yes going to be a quick rise today and since dew points are still nice the temp will spike. The problem with the Euro is it never puts in vegetation in its equation. Yes we are starting to get drier but all in all the vegetation is still rather lush.

Les the good thing is today we have the most daylight hours available so starting on Wednesday we are heading towards winter lol.

Good morning Tim! Yes Sir... Summer began this morning officially at 5:13am. It'll take a while, but we are finally heading back our way. Temp averages will take another month or so before they start dropping. I think in July and the first few weeks of Aug, our highest avg is 86 / 66 then those will begin to slowly drop as well. UGH... we have a long way to go but it's a start!

Model wise... the GFS has been better then the Euro overall esp with temps. Euro has consistently been too hot because it mixes the airmass much more then the GFS and has lower dew points. If we were in a big drought then the Euro would end up being right. But we're not. If we get missed this week then D0 is in our future but otherwise, as long as we get something, we're fine in that regard.

During last week's heat stretch, John Gumm was blowing the horns on his Facebook about the temps being really high, and I said to him then that he had to know that was wrong due to how moist the soil was throughout the region. I think he has been sucked in to being a Euro hugger like Kevin at Channel 5 is.

I've been a little high on some of my calls too but closer then local media since they primarily use the Euro as you mentioned. Even ILN took a day or two longer then our forum with adding rain chances in for Wed and Sun, yet we've known it all along thanks to the GFS. Euro is coming around now too, but very late to the party. The last couple of upgrades have really hurt that model's performance and esp it's warm bias. Granted, the GFS can have and does have a cold bias too, but it's much closer to reality for sure. CMC is usually in the middle of the two other global models.

12Z NAM has a small chance Wed afternoon as the storms blow up just a bit to our south. Timing is going to be everything here so the faster the front comes in, the less rain chances we will receive. If it slows down, we'll have a good chance here. Majority of the guidance I am seeing wants to speed it up so def keeping POPS at 40-50% like I mentioned the other day. No reason to go any higher due to the potential unfavorable timing.

really enjoying this summer so far not one 90 degree day yet in fact not even close to the 90 degree mark. could not even get out of the 60s this weekend. i know that will all change next month but will savor it while it lasts.

12Z GFS is a couple of hours slower so a bit better coverage then what the NAM has as a result. Still like 40-50% coverage though at this time.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 11:39 am really enjoying this summer so far not one 90 degree day yet in fact not even close to the 90 degree mark. could not even get out of the 60s this weekend. i know that will all change next month but will savor it while it lasts.

Oh wow! We've had 4 90 degree days at CVG thus far. That is fairly close to an avg for June, but we'll probably tack on a few more this week. Hopefully not.

87 as of 1pm at CVG, dew is 65 so the sticky factor is coming back, but thankfully not those awful 75-80+ dews we saw previously. With clear skies and plenty of sunshine, a 90 degree day at CVG should def occur with 4-5 hours of peak heating yet to go.

89 now as of 2pm...

12Z Euro's timing looks good for Wed. Storms pop just north of Cincy then drop south but fizzle out once they get south of the river. Typical pulse type storms. Just hope we can muster up something out of it. You know my coverage call already...

The Euro has a small storm chance Sat, which I am not buying. Decent for Sunday, I like my 60-70% call there attm.

92 at CVG so chalk another one up for the contest.

Good Afternoon and a hot but not a horrible muggy day like last week. So far 92 is the high and yes maybe we hit 93 or 94 but those upper 90's are not going to happen. My problem is not with the models as they are just a tool but folks that are met's are the one's that need to adjust and not just rely on a model output. I have no ideal if they are so tied to the models that they must just throw out the numbers the certain models show and if so I could have never been able to do that kind of forecasting.

The bigger heat is just to our north. 98 in Findlay. 97 in Lima. 96 in Muncie.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:08 pm Good Afternoon and a hot but not a horrible muggy day like last week. So far 92 is the high and yes maybe we hit 93 or 94 but those upper 90's are not going to happen. My problem is not with the models as they are just a tool but folks that are met's are the one's that need to adjust and not just rely on a model output. I have no ideal if they are so tied to the models that they must just throw out the numbers the certain models show and if so I could have never been able to do that kind of forecasting.

Good day Tim, we have some local great TV Mets, but as we know , they are taught and heavily encouraged from the higher ups, to go for the headline grabber no matter what weather situation it pertains to . It's just the way it is now and always will be. Gummer and Robinson may have suspected the chances of near 100 was slim to none days ago , but that won't perk people's ears up or create chatter.

Good evening all! Some great posts this afternoon that I am reading and I'd like to add that sometimes I am guilty of relying too much on model output. Forecasting is a tough game because sometimes the model output is very good. At other times it is awful. It just depends on the pattern and the time of year, and what is actually going on in reality. Sometimes, when I think outside the box, I do very good. At other times, not so much. The point is, It is tough to find a good balance between outside the box thinking and using model output. Some of the best forecasters out there (both Pro and amateur's alike) are able to do that and that's what I need to do more of to get better and improve my forecasting accuracy. A lot of times on our forum, if you take a blend of everyone's ideas who post their thoughts and forecasts, then you usually come out a winner. Or you sink and go down with the ship! Mother Nature always has the final say and we are here to try and do our best to get it right. Overall, our forum IMO does a great job. Sometimes the TV Mets beat us, and NWS ILN... but as a whole, I think we beat them more often then not. I truly believe that. This forum is awesome and we all do a wonderful job on here.

Okay... so tomorrow's weather story is going to be all about the rain chances and that's what we'll be tracking. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible but this doesn't look to be a widespread severe wx event. These will be Pulse type storms. They will blow up... move a little bit, then weaken and rain themselves out. I just hope that we are in that zone and it doesn't occur south of us. We will see what the short term guidance says tomorrow as well as real time conditions. Attm, storms are starting to pop in scattered fashion over Wisc and Iowa which is where our cold front is currently located.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:30 pm The bigger heat is just to our north. 98 in Findlay. 97 in Lima. 96 in Muncie.

Toledo tied their record of 100 set back in 1988!

CVG reached 92 and both DAY and CMH had 95 for Tues.