Absolute Vorticity

Have a dry slot working in and how far east does it go. Still have the cold front west of here but so far today everything seems to be moving rather quickly.

Looks like the front is closing in on STL so the rain, steady stuff winds down from NW to SE across the area as the day wears on. We'll get a line of showers and gusty winds with the frontal passage tonight. Then we watch Thurs AM Rush for us down here locally in the other thread.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:34 pm Looks like the front is closing in on STL so the rain, steady stuff winds down from NW to SE across the area as the day wears on. We'll get a line of showers and gusty winds with the frontal passage tonight. Then we watch Thurs AM Rush for us down here locally in the other thread.

Yeah quite the temperature contrast across Missouri with near 60 in STL and near 10 in the NW corner of the state.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:45 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:34 pm Looks like the front is closing in on STL so the rain, steady stuff winds down from NW to SE across the area as the day wears on. We'll get a line of showers and gusty winds with the frontal passage tonight. Then we watch Thurs AM Rush for us down here locally in the other thread.

Yeah quite the temperature contrast across Missouri with near 60 in STL and near 10 in the NW corner of the state.

I like seeing temp contrasts like that. Should promote a nice system one would think.

Here is a representation of that contrast.

Storm total of 1.96" here!

1.03 at CVG - storm total

1.4" storm total for my hood.

1.25 here


Need a miracle to finish out of the top 10 lowest FEB snowfall since going back to 2000

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:58 pm 1.25 here


Need a miracle to finish out of the top 10 lowest FEB snowfall since going back to 2000



tee.PNG

I think it is doable. I sure hope I am wrong though!

My gauge picked up .80" from Tues.

I'd much rather forget the late week garbage disposal storm.

9 days into the second half of FEB. We are now 9 degrees above normal for this period . Now this weekend cold shot is not nearly as cold as mods had a few days ago, which is good news.

Overnight NAM valid 7pm Thursday here in Dayton....talk about a warm layer aloft! Geez!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:58 am 9 days into the second half of FEB. We are now 9 degrees above normal for this period . Now this weekend cold shot is not nearly as cold as mods had a few days ago, which is good news.

I'm seeing a warmer and wetter look down the road with the -PNA and SE ridge combo coming back. MJO looking to get into Phase 4 in March. If the GFS is right, we torch with phases 4, 5, and 6 upcoming. TBD there.

EDIT: WOW... per the Aussies we're in phase 4 now as of 2/21 lol No wonder we are seeing the abrupt changes in the longer term.

Altus Air Force Base in Oklahoma: Currently Heavy snow and sleet with thunder, temp is 14 degrees!! Dang!

OKC right now - surface temp is 12 with 800 mb temp of 42 degrees.

PV update , record territory again


The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!!
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 46.6 m/s
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -12.4 m/s 1989
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 46.4 m/s 2011

Since 1980 top 10 qpf February's. How far do we climb? All this qpf and what, maybe an in of snow to show for it(not counting sleet)

For myself, I sure wouldn't mind if this week's kitchen sink / garbage disposal system is winter's last hurrah, so to say.

Currently 27 here in G'ville and progged for around 24 Thurs morning. Progged to top out at around 34 in the afternoon.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:31 pm For myself, I sure wouldn't mind if this week's kitchen sink / garbage disposal system is winter's last hurrah, so to say.

Currently 27 here in G'ville and progged for around 24 Thurs morning. Progged to top out at around 34 in the afternoon.

Not me... I haven't seen any real snow yet accept for when I was in Michigan But it might be...

Prayers and thoughts with the Ukrainians and PM Zelensky as tyrannical Putin's army has begun their full scale invasion and explosions have occurred in the capital of Kyiv and other areas.

Currently 27 and holding steady here in G'ville.

Looking ahead to the rest of Feb and we have a cold Fri in store with cloudy skies after the leftover snow / mix is over with early on. Some sunshine returns this coming weekend with 40s and 50s by Sun expected. The warmth continues into next week with nice conditions expected early next week to finish out the month.

The rest of Feb (Sat - Mon) offers dry conditions with a warming trend. 40s tomorrow, 50s Sunday then back to the 40s on Monday to close out the month.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:26 am The rest of Feb (Sat - Mon) offers dry conditions with a warming trend. 40s tomorrow, 50s Sunday then back to the 40s on Monday to close out the month.

GFS was pathetic with the Arctic cold reaching our area. It had well below zero a week ago for this weekend and temps near zero as late as Mondays run

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 2:35 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 6:26 am The rest of Feb (Sat - Mon) offers dry conditions with a warming trend. 40s tomorrow, 50s Sunday then back to the 40s on Monday to close out the month.

GFS was pathetic with the Arctic cold reaching our area. It had well below zero a week ago for this weekend and temps near zero as late as Mondays run

Yeah it did really bad. It was on a roll until then. The upcoming warm up maybe muted or not long lasting. MJO was in Phase 4 on 2/21, but then went back into Phase 3 again. It is weak phase 3 almost ready to hit the neutral circle as of 2/23. It is not progressing thru those warmer phases yet. Once it does, it'll be full on spring. Might delay that until second half of March the way it's looking to me.