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Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:04 am
by tron777
fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:54 am
0z GFS Snowfall (Kuchera)
31D2D30C-7B93-4EF5-BA23-FF01A5A4E0F1.jpeg
6z GFS Snowfall (Kuchera)
009D07ED-9E7B-4375-9422-816A43A44275.jpeg
I’d say it’s definitely coming in line with other models. 1.3 then 1.6” on the 6z. Fits closer to other models. Now just time to iron out the fine details.
It looks like the GFS is trying to tap the GoM for moisture. There is a crazy difference between the moisture in the 0z and the 6z. Makes it look like a bigger event.
Euro is rolling in now.
Exactly Aaron... need the energy to round the base of the trough at the right time to be able to interact with the cold air, pop that low faster, so the Gulf can be tapped. That's what the GFS did originally 3-4 days ago when it was the first model to blow up this storm. Foreign models then took over as the GFS lost it like usual.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:09 am
by tron777
3Z SREF has remained rock solid the last 2 days giving everyone a general 1-2". That is the mean mind you. There are a few weenie members like normal. I am seeing very few SREF members showing zero now so that's a better sign.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:12 am
by tron777
6Z Euro came back to 0.11" of QPF at CVG 0Z run only had like 0.07" if I recall. I-70 Crew gets around 0.05" and Matt... 0.21" at FGX so still decent.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:14 am
by fyrfyter
6z Euro appears to have bounced back North again. It has Northern edge of snow pushing into Indy and Columbus, unlike 0z which was Evansville and Cincinnati.
E091C519-F4F6-464C-B432-C3C38E9D204F.jpeg
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:38 am
by airwolf76
pretty strong signal this far out. this is generally quick moving and lack of QPF but still looks like a solid 1-6" event for many
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:54 am
by airwolf76
the NAM has a really nice track and weak surface Low that travels almost right up the App before jumping to the coast. that would probably be a solid 4-8 " event for many including me.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:57 am
by tron777
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:54 am
the NAM has a really nice track and weak surface Low that travels almost right up the App before jumping to the coast. that would probably be a solid 4-8 " event for many including me.
6Z NAM is probably too amped up but I'd love for that to occur nonetheless.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:19 am
by fyrfyter
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:54 am
the NAM has a really nice track and weak surface Low that travels almost right up the App before jumping to the coast. that would probably be a solid 4-8 " event for many including me.
Historically, those have been really good tracks for us in terms of snowfall. When the low tracks along the Appalachians, we usually do pretty good.
See what the models do in the next 48 hours as the energy comes onshore.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:32 am
by BookNerdCarp
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:59 am
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:53 am
Looking like a possible 2 to 4 inch event for my hood.
I agree Matt. SE Crew has the best shot at getting warning criteria snows out of this.
Finally, no precip type issues to worry about for you lol
We can count on one hand many times we have said "no precipitation type issues for me." LOL
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:34 am
by BookNerdCarp
ILN Forecast current has my area with 2 to 4 as well. Good call at this point.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:36 am
by tron777
9Z SREF showing the same thing as previous SREF runs. 1.5" on the mean give or take for most folks.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:41 am
by BookNerdCarp
Channel 9 jumped ship....
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:47 am
by airwolf76
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:57 am
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:54 am
the NAM has a really nice track and weak surface Low that travels almost right up the App before jumping to the coast. that would probably be a solid 4-8 " event for many including me.
6Z NAM is probably too amped up but I'd love for that to occur nonetheless.
will need another day to determine if the NAM has a possibility or not. either way this is an accumulating snow event for many. up to this point I have had less then 1.5" so its time
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:48 am
by fyrfyter
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:41 am
Channel 9 jumped ship....
Maybe that’s because someone jumped on pounding the Euro drum when it was showing 9+ inches.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:49 am
by cloudy72
9z SREF prob of 1" snow:
sref-all-members-ecentus-snow_ge_1-1600000.png
Past 4 runs of the SREF at CVG - Mean snowfall (latest 9z run in blue):
Mean Snowfall SREF CVG.png
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:52 am
by BookNerdCarp
fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:48 am
BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:41 am
Channel 9 jumped ship....
Maybe that’s because someone jumped on pounding the Euro drum when it was showing 9+ inches.
I couldn't agree more!!
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:56 am
by cloudy72
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:30 am
by Bgoney
Not surprisingly the Nam further south with the low compared to 6z
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:38 am
by tron777
The 6Z NAM was way juiced up and the reason is because the flow begins to back much sooner then other models. Trough starts to amplify before it gets to the MS River and that is how we score bigger snows and get App Runner lows. 12Z NAM has coming in south / weaker because the trough gets going later which brings in less QPF for us to work with.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:41 am
by cloudy72
12z NAM Kuchera snowfall...
nam-218-all-ohio-snow_24hr_kuchera-1578400.png
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:41 am
by Bgoney
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:46 am
by tron777
12Z NAM QPF per text data.
CVG - 0.13"
DAY / CMH: around 0.07"
FGX - 0.16"
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:47 am
by fyrfyter
Seems like it has just settled down to what every other model has shown.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:49 am
by tron777
fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:47 am
Seems like it has just settled down to what every other model has shown.
Yep. 1-3" call looks solid. Less north, more south.
Re: 1/6/22 - Possible First Snow of the Season for Many
Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:50 am
by MJSun
I've learned to be happy with whatever we get and know there's a good chance we'll miss cashing in by the north or south.
