Rocktober 2021 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

Picked up .20" from Sun / Sun evening.

Currently 72 here in G'ville.

[Bgoney]

12Z Euro is singing a different tune today. After the current system moves out (Wed / Thurs), then we're dry thru Day 10 (Next Thurs) and the warmth comes back as well as in the 80s. Heights are back up to around 588-590 DM. We'll be torching for Rocktober standards if that is correct. This is a stark contrast to the more active GFS that I posted about earlier. Place your bets!

Leaning to the EU atm. -PNA and +EPO look to hang around for a couple weeks . Also have the-NAO keeping things in place

[cloudy72]

So dome finally gave way! Had a nice downpour with 0.28"!

[tron777]

12Z Euro is singing a different tune today. After the current system moves out (Wed / Thurs), then we're dry thru Day 10 (Next Thurs) and the warmth comes back as well as in the 80s. Heights are back up to around 588-590 DM. We'll be torching for Rocktober standards if that is correct. This is a stark contrast to the more active GFS that I posted about earlier. Place your bets!

Leaning to the EU atm. -PNA and +EPO look to hang around for a couple weeks . Also have the-NAO keeping things in place

Should be some severe wx in the Plains for us to track if nothing else. I could see that happening if you buy the GFS or the Euro. Then with the ridging in place thanks to the blocking pattern, we'd get the leftovers as usual or nothing at all like the Euro's solution. Def hoping the more active GFS is right. Tired of this boring weather, although it does make it easier to get things done and prep before winter so there's that.

[tron777]

So dome finally gave way! Had a nice downpour with 0.28"!

Awesome Mike! Isolated cell to my south looks to stay there. Not expecting anything in my hood until Wed afternoon.

[Bgoney]

12Z Euro is singing a different tune today. After the current system moves out (Wed / Thurs), then we're dry thru Day 10 (Next Thurs) and the warmth comes back as well as in the 80s. Heights are back up to around 588-590 DM. We'll be torching for Rocktober standards if that is correct. This is a stark contrast to the more active GFS that I posted about earlier. Place your bets!

Leaning to the EU atm. -PNA and +EPO look to hang around for a couple weeks . Also have the-NAO keeping things in place

Should be some severe wx in the Plains for us to track if nothing else. I could see that happening if you buy the GFS or the Euro. Then with the ridging in place thanks to the blocking pattern, we'd get the leftovers as usual or nothing at all like the Euro's solution. Def hoping the more active GFS is right. Tired of this boring weather, although it does make it easier to get things done and prep before winter so there's that.

I'm ok with either, now tne second busiest time of year. The ground is great for digging and planting on the nice days and the rains are.perfect to help watering in. The ground is still.soaking every drop up so not worried about to to much moisture as it would take quite a few inches to halt any work

[tpweather]

12Z Euro is singing a different tune today. After the current system moves out (Wed / Thurs), then we're dry thru Day 10 (Next Thurs) and the warmth comes back as well as in the 80s. Heights are back up to around 588-590 DM. We'll be torching for Rocktober standards if that is correct. This is a stark contrast to the more active GFS that I posted about earlier. Place your bets!

Leaning to the EU atm. -PNA and +EPO look to hang around for a couple weeks . Also have the-NAO keeping things in place

Got a brief shower today so my total since the weekend is only about .75. Concerning the upcoming pattern and I agree with the Euro as I don't see any major player that would change the pattern. Usually a big storm of some kind tends to help make the change. Concerning temps next week is the Euro is correct and yes low 80's possible. A little to green to get much higher as much of the area has had decent rains over the past few weeks and really need a dry ground and low dew's to get much above 82 or so in the middle of October.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is singing a different tune today. After the current system moves out (Wed / Thurs), then we're dry thru Day 10 (Next Thurs) and the warmth comes back as well as in the 80s. Heights are back up to around 588-590 DM. We'll be torching for Rocktober standards if that is correct. This is a stark contrast to the more active GFS that I posted about earlier. Place your bets!

Leaning to the EU atm. -PNA and +EPO look to hang around for a couple weeks . Also have the-NAO keeping things in place

Should be some severe wx in the Plains for us to track if nothing else. I could see that happening if you buy the GFS or the Euro. Then with the ridging in place thanks to the blocking pattern, we'd get the leftovers as usual or nothing at all like the Euro's solution. Def hoping the more active GFS is right. Tired of this boring weather, although it does make it easier to get things done and prep before winter so there's that.

I'm ok with either, now tne second busiest time of year. The ground is great for digging and planting on the nice days and the rains are.perfect to help watering in. The ground is still.soaking every drop up so not worried about to to much moisture as it would take quite a few inches to halt any work

Same here! Every drop immediately soaks in. Not complaining whatsoever, but we could still use more.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is singing a different tune today. After the current system moves out (Wed / Thurs), then we're dry thru Day 10 (Next Thurs) and the warmth comes back as well as in the 80s. Heights are back up to around 588-590 DM. We'll be torching for Rocktober standards if that is correct. This is a stark contrast to the more active GFS that I posted about earlier. Place your bets!

Leaning to the EU atm. -PNA and +EPO look to hang around for a couple weeks . Also have the-NAO keeping things in place

Got a brief shower today so my total since the weekend is only about .75. Concerning the upcoming pattern and I agree with the Euro as I don't see any major player that would change the pattern. Usually a big storm of some kind tends to help make the change. Concerning temps next week is the Euro is correct and yes low 80's possible. A little to green to get much higher as much of the area has had decent rains over the past few weeks and really need a dry ground and low dew's to get much above 82 or so in the middle of October.

Our normals keep dropping steadily too. For tomorrow, we're already down to 71 / 50 at CVG so by that time, you're talking even the low 80s being 10 to 15 degrees above avg for the time of year. That is not record breaking, but pretty significant. Doing a number on my allergies too, rag weed and mold. Sigh... the cold can't come soon enough for me.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro is singing a different tune today. After the current system moves out (Wed / Thurs), then we're dry thru Day 10 (Next Thurs) and the warmth comes back as well as in the 80s. Heights are back up to around 588-590 DM. We'll be torching for Rocktober standards if that is correct. This is a stark contrast to the more active GFS that I posted about earlier. Place your bets!

Leaning to the EU atm. -PNA and +EPO look to hang around for a couple weeks . Also have the-NAO keeping things in place

Got a brief shower today so my total since the weekend is only about .75. Concerning the upcoming pattern and I agree with the Euro as I don't see any major player that would change the pattern. Usually a big storm of some kind tends to help make the change. Concerning temps next week is the Euro is correct and yes low 80's possible. A little to green to get much higher as much of the area has had decent rains over the past few weeks and really need a dry ground and low dew's to get much above 82 or so in the middle of October.

Our normals keep dropping steadily too. For tomorrow, we're already down to 71 / 50 at CVG so by that time, you're talking even the low 80s being 10 to 15 degrees above avg for the time of year. That is not record breaking, but pretty significant. Doing a number on my allergies too, rag weed and mold. Sigh... the cold can't come soon enough for me.

I agree about the allergies Les. This fall has been bad and once I got back on Saturday I had a constant headache until this morning. Nothing bad but in the eyes and just a pain. Frost cannot come soon enough but this season it looks to be on a later than normal time period. Still looking at a earlier than normal start to winter but with this extended warmth I have seen where it can take a little longer to move or change this pattern.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is singing a different tune today. After the current system moves out (Wed / Thurs), then we're dry thru Day 10 (Next Thurs) and the warmth comes back as well as in the 80s. Heights are back up to around 588-590 DM. We'll be torching for Rocktober standards if that is correct. This is a stark contrast to the more active GFS that I posted about earlier. Place your bets!

Leaning to the EU atm. -PNA and +EPO look to hang around for a couple weeks . Also have the-NAO keeping things in place

Got a brief shower today so my total since the weekend is only about .75. Concerning the upcoming pattern and I agree with the Euro as I don't see any major player that would change the pattern. Usually a big storm of some kind tends to help make the change. Concerning temps next week is the Euro is correct and yes low 80's possible. A little to green to get much higher as much of the area has had decent rains over the past few weeks and really need a dry ground and low dew's to get much above 82 or so in the middle of October.

Our normals keep dropping steadily too. For tomorrow, we're already down to 71 / 50 at CVG so by that time, you're talking even the low 80s being 10 to 15 degrees above avg for the time of year. That is not record breaking, but pretty significant. Doing a number on my allergies too, rag weed and mold. Sigh... the cold can't come soon enough for me.

I agree about the allergies Les. This fall has been bad and once I got back on Saturday I had a constant headache until this morning. Nothing bad but in the eyes and just a pain. Frost cannot come soon enough but this season it looks to be on a later than normal time period. Still looking at a earlier than normal start to winter but with this extended warmth I have seen where it can take a little longer to move or change this pattern.

Agreed. The -PNA means business as well as the blocking ridge -NAO to keep this pattern going for a while as Bgoney mentioned previously. The call for an early start to winter is still valid. Too bad my earlier then normal frost idea is probably in jeopardy. Avg first freeze (32 degrees or lower) at CVG is 10/25 using our new climate normals 1990-2020.

[tron777]

Dense fog advisory until 10am... did not get rain here yesterday so the fog is light. For those that got rain, the fog is much more dense and widespread. Use caution! Otherwise after that, a nice day in store with dry wx and the U70s for highs.

[tron777]

With this next system, due to the low tracking west of us, the heavier rains will also fall to our west where 1-2" is possible. Going with up to 1" in the western areas of our CWA, a 1/2" for CVG Land and the Metro, and lesser amounts as one goes east from there. We'll see how this call goes. This is for Wed and Thurs by the way.

[cloudy72]

Visibility about a quarter mile here

[tpweather]

Good Morning and some fog this morning and though its gotten foggier over the past hour or so its not a true dense fog. This time of year when you get fog it can also keep temps down by a couple of degrees from the models predicted high. Need to do more work on the forecast for the next couple of days and how much rain will fall. Another tough one to call but will give it my best before the day is over. Got my lawn cut yesterday which was 6 days between service and yes it was very high and thick especially for this time of year. With the rain and continued warm temps the slowing growth has gone down some but not like you usually see in early to mid-Oct.

[tron777]

Visibility about a quarter mile here

Ditto... fog finally lowered and got more dense here.

[tron777]

Good Morning and some fog this morning and though its gotten foggier over the past hour or so its not a true dense fog. This time of year when you get fog it can also keep temps down by a couple of degrees from the models predicted high. Need to do more work on the forecast for the next couple of days and how much rain will fall. Another tough one to call but will give it my best before the day is over. Got my lawn cut yesterday which was 6 days between service and yes it was very high and thick especially for this time of year. With the rain and continued warm temps the slowing growth has gone down some but not like you usually see in early to mid-Oct.

The daylight decreasing will slow its growth by default but with the rain and mild temps as you said, Tim, it'll still grow. Need to do mine again too at some point.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and another warm day in the tri-state. Had some time to look over the forecast for the next several days. Going to be somewhat similar to the past weekend as showers and even some thundershowers will be around probably through Friday morning. That is the easy part of the forecast but how much rain can fall. Well that is a much tougher question. There will be plenty of moisture so any area that gets hit with the overnight jet or has decent heating during the day can get a nice round that would be in the 1/2 to 3/4 over several hours. The problem is where will that set up and imo anywhere from the Mississippi River to the Apps. My forecast would be a decent chance of everyone getting rain and a general total would be around 1 inch. Yes some folks will get hit with more rain and some less just like this past weekend. I know in Greenville since I left Saturday that over 1 1/2 inches have fell which is no surprise since its been raining there ever since I moved their part time lol. Next weekend looks dry but starting early next week systems looks to be faster than previous models showed and yes it will warm next weekend but 80 may be the best we can do with a rather wet foliage. Some color to the trees but I saw more in the way of color in Southern Kentucky when I came home Saturday but they tend to get some rather cool and clear nights and many times are ahead of us in color during the fall season.

[tron777]

Seeing some slight color here as well. The process has begun! A lot of leaf drop too already but that is normal for the older and less healthier trees anyway. 79 here today and at CVG. Gotta get back outside and finish mowing...

[tron777]

Well folks... no signs of sustained Fall weather yet. The next 2 weeks look to primarily be above avg. On the dry days, be sure to get anything done you need to before the colder weather hits. You know how it'll go down. We'll be nice and warm and then all of a sudden Boom! It'll turn nasty and never go back. That sounds good to me LOL!

[tron777]

Good Wednesday morning all! Rain is moving in today and will be light at first. Better chances come this afternoon and again late overnight and esp tomorrow. Tomorrow is the best chance for everyone. A few strong storms may also occur Thurs afternoon and evening. The action ends Fri morning and we're left with a mild summer like weekend in the U70s to L80s region wide. The warmth continues thru at least mid month, probably need to extend that to 10/20 most likely.

As far as rainfall amounts, I'm still going with an inch plus to our West, a half inch for the Metro and a quarter to half inch out East. Heavier west, lighter east due to the track of the low.

[tpweather]

Good Wednesday morning all! Rain is moving in today and will be light at first. Better chances come this afternoon and again late overnight and esp tomorrow. Tomorrow is the best chance for everyone. A few strong storms may also occur Thurs afternoon and evening. The action ends Fri morning and we're left with a mild summer like weekend in the U70s to L80s region wide. The warmth continues thru at least mid month, probably need to extend that to 10/20 most likely.

As far as rainfall amounts, I'm still going with an inch plus to our West, a half inch for the Metro and a quarter to half inch out East. Heavier west, lighter east due to the track of the low.

Good Morning Les. Normally we agree on most aspects of the weather but sometimes we disagree and that is not a bad thing at all on this forum. I believe everyone on here that makes forecasts wants to be correct but we know mother nature decides the outcome. For some of the new folks on here we have a wide range of folks who make their forecast in different ways. Many use the models much more than myself and probably because I started looking at the weather when I was around 2 and that was in 1963 so models for the public not so much.

That was a lead into the current system. Normally I would agree with Les about the higher amounts closer to the low. This time though their are impulses coming from the east that are nice rain makes as well. I have noticed over the last few days the rainfall is much further east from the low than you would expect. The overnight jet keeps moving as well and is moving each night a little further east imo which is also enhancing rainfall further east. Those factors have made my forecast a more overall 1 inch total for everyone but again some winners and losers but not a higher total or lower total west to east. We will see the final outcome but again usually Les and I agree on many things concerning the weather though we usually get there in a different way. So over the next 5 months or so expect at times where we differ and we both tend to go through hot streaks at times but also times where we can hit the broad side of a barn. I believe though this forum is wonderful and allows all forecasts and is a great learning tool. I always tell the story that once I found the weather forums I was hooked and I had never used a weather model in my life so the first year I went mainly with the models and had the worse forecasting season ever so I decided to go back to my forecasts using weather patterns I had seen in the past and this worked out much better. So yes I am a pattern person but I have been able to use some models to help me making a better forecast hopefully.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim... like I've always said about you and I and our forecasting methods... if you take a blend of models and pattern recognition, you'd have a much easier time in getting forecasts right.

I agree with you somewhat here because with t-storms, some folks won't get much, and others could get an inch or two. But those are more isolated cases and with my rainfall forecast, all you can really do is broad brush and generalize it. Our technology is no where near good enough to pinpoint what county or region is going to get those storms to occur. So I could get that 1/2" here (or not due to The Dome LOL) and you may get that 1-2" in your hood yet you're like 15-20 mins away from me. Just how it goes with T-storms.

So in short, we both have our reasons for posting the things that we post and I always like reading different viewpoints with regards to the weather and how we all forecast in different ways. We are different, yet united in our love for weather. That is indeed what makes this forum so great!

[tron777]

A few sprinkles so far here this morning, so The Dome is getting primed so to speak.

Edit: I'll go with a trace. CVG is actually on the board with 0.01"

[cloudy72]

Seeing some light rain here this morning. Dome already showing some weakness!

EDIT: Les - you and are on the same page this morning! Was just typing this when I saw your reply. LOL