Absolute Vorticity

----

Good Morning and a little over 1/2 inch of rain last night. The rain is pushing off to the south and east but its a slow mover. The day will become drier from northwest to southeast and expect some sun later today. The big question is will there be another round of heat in September. I am not seeing the tropics on this side of the world being very active for what can happen in September. The pacific area though is picking up and again mother nature always balancing the earth. Yes we will have some warm days but nothing more than a degree or two above normal except on a day will a cold front is about to move in and you get that one day where temps soar. At this moment September looks normal in both terms of temps and precip IMO.

Had 0.20” here

Picked up a 1/2" here and CVG got 0.64". A nice little overnight soaker which was timed perfectly after mowing yesterday morning. Smoker is going and the ribs are on... some baby backs for the family today! Glad the rain ended when it did this morning. Even seeing a peak of sun now here every so often.

Good Evening and it was a slow process to get rid of the clouds especially if you lived south and east of CVG. Beautiful night for the fireworks. The next week is going to be a very typical first full week of September with temps in the upper 70's and low 80's for highs and mainly mid-upper 50's at night. Maybe a shower Tuesday but don't change plans as most of the week should be dry. Some heat does build south of here but again not sure there is anything that will send to much heat this way plus vegetation is rather green from all the rain lately.

The only chance of rain in the next week is with that front late Tues night into early Wed morning. Otherwise... some very nice weather! Mid to U80s on Tues ahead of the front is the warmest day for the next week at this point.

As Tim said... awesome weather tonight for the Fireworks! Enjoy all!

Happy Labor Day folks! 56 this morning at CVG and the double nickel here! A gorgeous morning in progress! We'll heat up fast into the lower 80s this afternoon. Mid 80s if not a touch higher for Tues ahead of our next frontal system. Keeping in a risk for showers / t-showers for late Tues night into early Wed morning. It'll be a quick hitter so rainfall amounts will remain on the light side for those who get wet. Not everyone will. That front will bring in another reinforcing shot of cool refreshing air for the end of the week. Sunny and nice into the mid 80s or so for next weekend.

Looking ahead... do we remain n the warm side thanks to the tropics, or does the fronts from Canada continue to come in to keep this current pattern of near to below normal temps going? My call as been for a warm up all along. Models don't seem to be as gung ho on the idea as they once were, but going to hang on to the idea for now with the tropics being the wild card. PNA doesn't look to go negative as I thought it would do so that's a change that I have noticed in the last couple of days.

BG Storm Talk from this morning:

https://www.wave3.com/2021/09/06/goode- ... r-blog-96/

Today's 12Z GFS looks pretty active with a lot of cold fronts coming in once we get past this next week or so of quiet weather. If you need to get some things done outside or any big projects going on, now is the time to act if you can. Not because of any big time cold weather coming or anything (which it isn't) but I mean because of more chances for rain coming up down the road.

In contrast, the 0Z Euro is bringing some heat back with a 90 degree reading not out of the question by next week. The GFS was going warmer also up until recently. Euro was cooler up until recently. So the GFS started the warmer talk, the Euro has now caught on. GFS has been trying to back off. So we'll see what happens. I'm sticking to the warm call that I made simply because you don't want to flip-flop around (ruins your creditability) and it's a ways off so confidence isn't overly high. The GFS was the first model to pick up the last heat wave correctly, and was the first this time too (even though it has backed off recently). So my point is, that the GFS should come back around to its original projection. That would guarantee that the call be correct if that happens.

12Z Euro still showing the scattered showers for late Tues night into early Wed morning, Scattered areas of 0.10-0.20" possible. The model continues to show the heat coming back by next weekend. 90ish likely by Sunday the 12th. Looks like it lasts about 3 days before a front comes in.

83 at CVG today, 82 here. Should be able to hit 85 or 86 tomorrow ahead of the next front. I also expect SW winds to pick up a bit tomorrow afternoon as well, but nothing major in that regard since the front isn't overly strong. It will give us a few more 70s for highs and 50s for lows type of days before the heat builds back in by this weekend.

Good morning folks! We've got the forecast well in hand over the next week and change. Sunny, breezy today with the mid 80s expected. Front comes in early Wed morning bringing in a scattered line of showers / t-showers. It'll be in and out within an hour or two's time. Expecting the timing for Cincy to be Wed morning in that 6-9am range. 0.10-0.20" should work for most. Lower if your Dome holds and higher if you get under a t-storm.

Then, delightful weather again with the 70s for highs and 50s for lows thru the end of the week. Sunny with warming temps this weekend. Expecting the U80s now by Sunday and into early next week. Not sure on a 90 but I wouldn't rule one out. I think around the 20th or so, the warmth again leaves town and we're back to our cold frontal attacks from Canada again. Let's see how this timing works out.

Good Morning Les and looks very much like a typical September week with temps averaging near normal and little in the precip department. When the tropics are active and near the USA we usually end up with above normal temps and rainfall. Once they settle down we tend to get drier with temps starting to decline. The mjo which was stuck in phase 2 in August and brought us plenty of tropical moisture has gone into the COD and looks to heading into phase 4 which is means tropical systems will be less while picking up in the pacific and that usually leads to some of those heading towards Japan and you get the re-curve and that tends to lead to troughs in the eastern half of the USA which this time of year usually leads to some cooler temps on the way. Usually takes 10-14 days for the process. So very typical September weather which is fine with me and even when you get temps in the mid-upper 80's the humidity is not that bad so it feels nice outside.

Good morning Tim... you've made a good point about the humidity. Mid to upper 80s is hot for Sept. but the lack of humidity makes a big difference for sure.

Happy day after Labor Day! I do enjoy three day weekends, however it makes it twice as hard coming back to work! LOL 66 was my low this AM.

62 here, 63 this morning at CVG.

12z HRRR has a line of storms weakening as it treks towards us tonight, then re-fires the line once it passes my dome tomorrow morning. LOL Theme of 2021!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:28 am 12z HRRR has a line of storms weakening as it treks towards us tonight, then re-fires the line once it passes my dome tomorrow morning. LOL Theme of 2021!

That is a very viable solution unfortunately. The timing of the front for us isn't good as you know.

----

----

The timing of the front won't allow for severe wx for us. Still rolling with 0.10-0.20" with a chance that some people get nothing and others a touch more should a heavier storm develop. Again, going with a Wed morning ETA for Cincy. Around Rush Hour is a good call.

My folks are having an early celebration of their 60th anniversary (actual anniversary is Dec 17th) up in northern Indiana near the Michigan border at a timeshare that my sister and bil have in Mishawaka. They'll be up there through Fri and then head home Sat.

I talked with them this morning and told them the threat of a Slight Risk for their area. They appreciated being informed of that. Also they told me about a nice drive around self-tour they had of the Notre Dame campus and I could envision in part their description of the campus property from having watched a few times the movie "Rudy" which of course starred Sean Astin, Ned Beatty, and Robert Prosky.

An aunt and cousin of mine who reside in Baldwin, MI near Ludington were under a SVR T-storm Warning until 1:30.

Currently 81 and progged to top at around 84 here in G'ville.

1658 100 LUDINGTON MASON MI 4396 8644 PHOTO OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IN LUDINGTON ... DURATION OF 5 MINS ... VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. (GRR)

^^ Near where my aunt and cousin reside.

----