Absolute Vorticity

Beautiful though a little breezy but tons of sunshine. What is concerning me the most and I spoke about this over the past month or so is rainfall in the southern states. Feb-April is big in terms of rainfall for these areas before summer hits and I hope over the next 8 weeks they get plenty of rainfall. If this does not happen the chances for a hot summer goes up and even for us later on has the heat expands. Love these nice days in March but sometimes you do pay a price for the widespread nice weather.

12Z GFS has the first front coming thru around Wed / Thurs of next week with some rain. It stalls over the TN Valley with a stronger low coming in next weekend. It is that second system that has my attn for t-storms. Timing of course will be decided once we get closer.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:40 am Beautiful though a little breezy but tons of sunshine. What is concerning me the most and I spoke about this over the past month or so is rainfall in the southern states. Feb-April is big in terms of rainfall for these areas before summer hits and I hope over the next 8 weeks they get plenty of rainfall. If this does not happen the chances for a hot summer goes up and even for us later on has the heat expands. Love these nice days in March but sometimes you do pay a price for the widespread nice weather.

Here's the current drought map Tim and to your point... we certainly need to see some rain to our West esp over the S Rockies area.

I'm kind of surprised to see abnormally dry from northwest OH into a portion of IL. Guess their snow pack in those areas must have been less this winter.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:50 am 12Z GFS has the first front coming thru around Wed / Thurs of next week with some rain. It stalls over the TN Valley with a stronger low coming in next weekend. It is that second system that has my attn for t-storms. Timing of course will be decided once we get closer.

Chance for 70s for that 12th period with a nice warm front moving through on that day. Don't know if I agree just yet that it's a one and done deal with a cold front on its heals . That cold front could get hung up a little longer and another day or two of warmth could ensue.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 12:39 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:50 am 12Z GFS has the first front coming thru around Wed / Thurs of next week with some rain. It stalls over the TN Valley with a stronger low coming in next weekend. It is that second system that has my attn for t-storms. Timing of course will be decided once we get closer.

Chance for 70s for that 12th period with a nice warm front moving through on that day. Don't know if I agree just yet that it's a one and done deal with a cold front on its heals . That cold front could get hung up a little longer and another day or two of warmth could ensue.

I agree with you on the 70s chance. Strength of the front, timing and exactly where it stalls will be key for 1 day or two. That will also play a role in my cooler thoughts after mid month as well. Should be a more interesting period to watch unfold for temps, t-storm chances, and then how much do we cool down after mid month (if any)?

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:53 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:40 am Beautiful though a little breezy but tons of sunshine. What is concerning me the most and I spoke about this over the past month or so is rainfall in the southern states. Feb-April is big in terms of rainfall for these areas before summer hits and I hope over the next 8 weeks they get plenty of rainfall. If this does not happen the chances for a hot summer goes up and even for us later on has the heat expands. Love these nice days in March but sometimes you do pay a price for the widespread nice weather.

Here's the current drought map Tim and to your point... we certainly need to see some rain to our West esp over the S Rockies area.

DroughtMap.png

Not to concerned with Southern rockies atm, March and April are usually some of there best snow/precip months and the way things are shaping up for them with the pattern upcoming, I expect drought improvements forthcoming

WOW, it just FEELS nice outside.

12Z Euro is picking up on the more active look beginning during the 2nd half of next week. Nice Cutter into the Upper Midwest for some rain and t-storms here. Then the front stalls on top of us for the next wave to come in Fri / Sat. Not a good look unless you like heavy rainfall. GFS was stronger with the front and gave us more of a break vs the Euro.

EU has a much stronger Atlantic Ridge , so a more vigorous return flow reaching into the OV

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:54 pm EU has a much stronger Atlantic Ridge , so a more vigorous return flow reaching into the OV

If this idea is correct, you would think it would give us a better shot of hitting 70 if the front were to slow down in time working itself into the area.

Beautiful afternoon out there!

59 as of 2pm... 60s are a lock now. Should be a nice evening to fire up the grill for some cheeseburger sliders!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:24 pm 59 as of 2pm... 60s are a lock now. Should be a nice evening to fire up the grill for some cheeseburger sliders!

Sounds great, man! What do you usually do for sides with your burgers?

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:24 pm 59 as of 2pm... 60s are a lock now. Should be a nice evening to fire up the grill for some cheeseburger sliders!

Sounds great, man! What do you usually do for sides with your burgers?

Sometimes, it's just chips and dip. Sometimes, baked beans. Mac n cheese. Fries or tator tots... I mean whatever happens to be in the house. :grin:

CVG I believe is at 62 right now... love those over achievers! Until summer comes LOL

61 here - what a day!

A nice and dry airmass too with dews in the upper 20s.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:49 pm CVG I believe is at 62 right now... love those over achievers! Until summer comes LOL

Aaaaaahhhhhh.

62 here imby... So gorgeous!

Currently 54 here in G'ville.

36 degree temp rise today .

Our 1st fantasy rain to snow event on our new forum thanks to the 18Z GFS as we near St. Patrick's Day.

Check out the overnight Euro Ensembles... notice the cooler trend with a trough after mid month. The EPS was all about Team Spring but it's coming around to the GFS and my thoughts of having a cool down and one last shot at wintry winter being possible.
GEFS Snow members thru Day 16. A few members are trying to bring in a little something after mid month. We'll see. Nothing isw guaranteed this far out but the thoughts of a cooler pattern after mid month IMO is gaining traction.
Until then... we are quiet into early next week. Then we warm up and get rain / t-storms the 2nd half of next week on into next weekend. After that... we'll see what happens in the longer term. Things are looking to get busy once we get thru this upcoming weekend.

Still going with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows mainly in the 20s and 30s thru the weekend. We'll see 50s warming into the 60s next week ahead of our wet and milder pattern that briefly kicks in from about Wed or so of next week thru next weekend. It won't rain that entire time period but there will be periods of rain and possible t-storms for us to track.