Absolute Vorticity

The HRRR's timing is anytime after 10pm over are faire game. For the NAM, anytime after 12 or 1am. So it's a bit later. See the below attached soundings. NAM is still downright scary.

Les this is no doubt a decent severe outbreak and we have talked about this for days as Sunday was the appetizer and of course we need to stay around for the seven course meal. Again my confidence is high and yes models will still have their differences and yes always some minor changes after each wave but for an overall forecast I believe we have done well on this forum.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 10:52 am Les this is no doubt a decent severe outbreak and we have talked about this for days as Sunday was the appetizer and of course we need to stay around for the seven course meal. Again my confidence is high and yes models will still have their differences and yes always some minor changes after each wave but for an overall forecast I believe we have done well on this forum.

Looks like BG took us down to 6-8" of rain in his video. Seems like a good call to me. Seeing some sun breaks now which we didn't have on Sunday. Gonna be an interesting night tonight I'm afraid.

64 / 50 at CVG now, so the moisture is rapidly increasing as well as the temps across the region.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 11:06 am 64 / 50 at CVG now, so the moisture is rapidly increasing as well as the temps across the region.

So key Les and anytime I see the rapid return on temps and moisture with a front heading this way in the spring it raises the chances for severe weather and yes this time a widespread area. Seasons doing battle with cold in the northern plains and summer trying to get going in the southeast. Some years very few of these happen but it looks like we are going to be in the year that is no doubt producing several outbreaks. Part of the reason is the continued cold weather to the north and sure once we get later in the season the coldest of air usually heads for eastern Canada but at the moment still has an cold weather in the northern part of the USA.

Hi everyone, went out to grab lunch, and it has definitely warmed up.

74 / 56 now at CVG, wow!

75F Dew Point 60 IMBY

I ran out a bit too; Warmer, but awfully cloudy. Feel like if the fuse is going to get lit we'll need at least a little bit of Severe Clear before the storm front is near.

Indeed, the moderate risk has been expanded.

Been sunny most of the morning here in northern kentucky

Very windy, warm, and humid here. You just know that the fuel is coming in big time now! 77 with a dew of 61 here. 76 / 60 at CVG.

Mods have been very consistent with the storms at their worst in SE Indiana and in Ohio along and west of 75. At what strength further east is still up in the air

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:13 pm Mods have been very consistent with the storms at their worst in SE Indiana and in Ohio along and west of 75. At what strength further east is still up in the air

The speed of the front and when it stalls are going to be key to answering this question, IMO.

76 in my hood! Seeing widespread 45-50 mph gusts already outside of the storms.

79 / 61 now at CVG. Peak wind gust of 45 mph as well.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:32 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:13 pm Mods have been very consistent with the storms at their worst in SE Indiana and in Ohio along and west of 75. At what strength further east is still up in the air

The speed of the front and when it stalls are going to be key to answering this question, IMO.

Agree, best just to assume that they will and hope they don’t

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:43 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:32 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:13 pm Mods have been very consistent with the storms at their worst in SE Indiana and in Ohio along and west of 75. At what strength further east is still up in the air

The speed of the front and when it stalls are going to be key to answering this question, IMO.

Agree, best just to assume that they will and hope they don’t

Exactly! It amazes me how we went from temps in the 40s with dews in the 30s to temps near 80 with dews in the lower 60s. Remarkable! The synoptic winds are no joke either. They are howling at times!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:44 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:43 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:32 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:13 pm Mods have been very consistent with the storms at their worst in SE Indiana and in Ohio along and west of 75. At what strength further east is still up in the air

The speed of the front and when it stalls are going to be key to answering this question, IMO.

Agree, best just to assume that they will and hope they don’t

Exactly! It amazes me how we went from temps in the 40s with dews in the 30s to temps near 80 with dews in the lower 60s. Remarkable! The synoptic winds are no joke either. They are howling at times!

Fun to watch Les and we saw this happening a few days ago that today really had a good shot to get 80 or above. Those kind of southerly winds this time of year just warms us up so quickly .

Up to 80 with a 64 Dew Point...wow

I do believe the dew points rising will help keep the storms going longer than Sunday night. Later Thursday we may not have the higher dew points but plenty of rain in the somewhat cooler air.

CVG just gusted to 49 mph.

MD issued for the high risk area - TOR watch likely to be issued soon:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0355.html

Northern third of Ohio already with decent start with widespread.50”-1.50”

CAPE values now up to 1500 J/KG for the tri-state. CINH is finally gone. Juicer dews are moving in from the SW. Mid level lapse rates are at 7.5C with low level lapse rates approaching 7.0C Bulk shear is in the 40-50 knot range along with helicity values of 300. Plenty of dynamics to go around along with building instability. Supercell comp index is 6 with a value of 12 lurking just to the SW. VTP's (Violent Tornado Parameter) are almost at a 1 in our SW counties. Anything at 1.5 maybe 2 or above is not good. Values up to 6 are over SC ILL. Wow....