18Z GFS really isn't that terribly different from the 12Z run. Still in the southern camp. It is also continuing the two part idea. Round 1 Tues night into Wed morning then the upper low snow Wed night. Total QPF at CVG is 0.18" from both rounds.
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Sun Feb 16, 2025 5:05 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 5:02 pm
18Z GFS really isn't that terribly different from the 12Z run. Still in the southern camp. It is also continuing the two part idea. Round 1 Tues night into Wed morning then the upper low snow Wed night. Total QPF at CVG is 0.18" from both rounds.
Les and say 15-1 we are talking about 2-4 inches. I wonder which models some of the NWS offices in the Missouri are using going with the higher totals.
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 5:02 pm
18Z GFS really isn't that terribly different from the 12Z run. Still in the southern camp. It is also continuing the two part idea. Round 1 Tues night into Wed morning then the upper low snow Wed night. Total QPF at CVG is 0.18" from both rounds.
Les and say 15-1 we are talking about 2-4 inches. I wonder which models some of the NWS offices in the Missouri are using going with the higher totals.
I'd say the range is 2-8" for this event and I am including the NAM on the higher end of that as a possible solution. We will begin to narrow that range as new data comes in.
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Sun Feb 16, 2025 5:11 pm
by tpweather
State of Missouri covered in watches except for one small part in the middle of the state. Yes it will get filled in over the next 12 hours but wow that would be funny you get missed in every direction.
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Sun Feb 16, 2025 5:13 pm
by wrmwxfreak
Hoping this trends north enough to include Centerville!
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Sun Feb 16, 2025 5:19 pm
by tron777
GEFS Members.png
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Sun Feb 16, 2025 5:23 pm
by tron777
Early thinking from the boys, seems to be on par with the forum's thinking:
A strong and cold surface high pressure system will be centered
over southern Saskatchewan/the far northern Plains at the start
of the long term period. The high will gradually weaken as it
shifts slowly south into the central Plains through the end of
the work week. However, this will help keep temperatures across
our region well below normal through Friday. Daytime highs
Wednesday and Thursday will only be in the teens and 20s with
overnight lows in the single digits to teens.
In zonal flow aloft, a mid level short wave will move quickly
east across the region Wednesday with an associated surface/850
mb wave developing across the southeast US. We will remain on
the northern fringe of this system with snow chances moving in
later Tuesday night and then continuing into Wednesday morning.
Will range pops from chance across our north to categorical in
the far south. SLRs should be fairly high so at this point it
appears that 2-4 inches of snow will be possible, mainly along
and south of the Ohio River, with lesser amounts to the north.
Will then linger a chance of snow showers Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night as some secondary mid level energy rotates
down across our area.
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Sun Feb 16, 2025 5:30 pm
by tpweather
Very nice write up from the boys. Went middle of the road and at this point seems a good call. Will be interesting overnight to see which models make a big move. Shorter term models the NAM and RGEM are about 180 degrees apart with totals. Many times when we see this somewhere in the middle seems to work quite often
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Sun Feb 16, 2025 6:24 pm
by tron777
0.14" from the 18Z Euro.
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Sun Feb 16, 2025 7:05 pm
by Trevor
I'll sneak you all one of our subscriber maps. Here's our current thoughts on 4"+. Some adjustment north or south possible, but this is looking like an I-64/south special.
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Sun Feb 16, 2025 7:33 pm
by Pete1
Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 7:05 pm
I'll sneak you all one of our subscriber maps. Here's our current thoughts on 4"+. Some adjustment north or south possible, but this is looking like an I-64/south special.
Come on north trend like we usually see when we don’t want it. I actually like being in the spot we are in right now. Maybe for once the north trend will pay off for us.
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Sun Feb 16, 2025 9:47 pm
by CINCINNATI01
Nam finally caved looks like 2to4 south of the river 1to3 north
Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 7:05 pm
I'll sneak you all one of our subscriber maps. Here's our current thoughts on 4"+. Some adjustment north or south possible, but this is looking like an I-64/south special.
Come on north trend like we usually see when we don’t want it. I actually like being in the spot we are in right now. Maybe for once the north trend will pay off for us.
Hey Pete. The more and more I look at this upcoming system I am leaning towards a 4-6 inch snowfall locally. Though we are dealing with some dry air there is a tiny wave late on Monday that works its way east and probably not much in the way of accumulation but it does moisten up the atmosphere which will make it much easier to snow later Tuesday and Wednesday. We are going to be on the decent snow and very little snow line and folks near I-70 may end up with 1-2 inches. Will watch the trends and hopefully by Monday morning the models become in agreement and like I mentioned the more I look at this set up the more confident that locally a nice little system
So yes a little early but I am going with 4-6 inches and this is not a maybe this or maybe that but what I truly believe from the data and also systems like this tend to produce around here.
Many times when you see a system like this and southern Missouri gets hammered a system in the GOM will form a surface low and that will happen here. Many times the surface low becomes strong quickly and you see southern Missouri gets hammered and the snow heads east but the stronger surface low takes the energy and the moisture and the Ohio Valley gets the old sorry but taking my moisture to the east coast. Looks like this surface low though seems to be taking a slower time to get stronger and that is why I believe snows will survive as it heads east. Yes it will be on the move so we don't get the double digits snows you see to the west but 4-6 here seems reasonable. Folks south of here towards I-64 will probably be in that 4-6 inch range as well but odds of getting closer to 8 inches is somewhat greater.
Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 7:05 pm
I'll sneak you all one of our subscriber maps. Here's our current thoughts on 4"+. Some adjustment north or south possible, but this is looking like an I-64/south special.
Come on north trend like we usually see when we don’t want it. I actually like being in the spot we are in right now. Maybe for once the north trend will pay off for us.
Hey Pete. The more and more I look at this upcoming system I am leaning towards a 4-6 inch snowfall locally. Though we are dealing with some dry air there is a tiny wave late on Monday that works its way east and probably not much in the way of accumulation but it does moisten up the atmosphere which will make it much easier to snow later Tuesday and Wednesday. We are going to be on the decent snow and very little snow line and folks near I-70 may end up with 1-2 inches. Will watch the trends and hopefully by Monday morning the models become in agreement and like I mentioned the more I look at this set up the more confident that locally a nice little system
So yes a little early but I am going with 4-6 inches and this is not a maybe this or maybe that but what I truly believe from the data and also systems like this tend to produce around here.
Many times when you see a system like this and southern Missouri gets hammered a system in the GOM will form a surface low and that will happen here. Many times the surface low becomes strong quickly and you see southern Missouri gets hammered and the snow heads east but the stronger surface low takes the energy and the moisture and the Ohio Valley gets the old sorry but taking my moisture to the east coast. Looks like this surface low though seems to be taking a slower time to get stronger and that is why I believe snows will survive as it heads east. Yes it will be on the move so we don't get the double digits snows you see to the west but 4-6 here seems reasonable. Folks south of here towards I-64 will probably be in that 4-6 inch range as well but odds of getting closer to 8 inches is somewhat greater.
Nice write up Tim!! Id be happy with a 4-6 inch snowstorm
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2025 3:55 am
by CINCINNATI01
Nam is now a swing and a miss
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2025 4:25 am
by tron777
Good morning! It is sad to see the NAM cave but it really should not be a shocker or anything like that. After looking at the overnight guidance, this is my first call:
I-70 Crew: 1" or less
N Cincy burbs: 1-2"
Cincy and CVG areas: 2-4"
Southern Counties 4-6"
CB's first call map is also below:
CD First Call.png
Timing: Early Wed morning thru Wed afternoon then a period of snow showers overnight with the upper low.
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2025 6:43 am
by tron777
The overnight SREF, 3Z run, still has the mean at 3" for CVG.
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2025 8:04 am
by tron777
9Z SREF mean is still at 3,5" for CVG.
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2025 8:30 am
by tron777
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2025 8:33 am
by airwolf76
crazy how my area has missed out on a big one all year. but im not all that disappointed since i wont have the plow fixed till next weekend. after this storm it looks like it will be dry the rest of the month with seasonal temps
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:49 am
by tron777
The NAM is such an awful model. Took us from a 6-8" snow to nothing in about 2 runs,
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:03 am
by Trentonwx06
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 17, 2025 9:49 am
The NAM is such an awful model. Took us from a 6-8" snow to nothing in about 2 runs,
Look at this past storm for Michigan.
Around Detroit, should got 8-10 only ended up with 4. Will be interesting what happens next 36 hours.
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:08 am
by tron777
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:26 am
by Bgoney
Carbon copy of many of the events we have seen where the northern edge of the precip shield is being squeezed by the very dry air especially for the I70 crew and putting our river counties on the edge
Re: February 18-19th 2025 High Ratio Snow Event
Posted: Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:29 am
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:26 am
Carbon copy of many of the events we have seen where the northern edge of the precip shield is being squeezed by the very dry air especially for the I70 crew and putting our river counties on the edge
Exactly.... the trends for this winter continue to ring true. It's amazing that we've done as well as we have.
