Absolute Vorticity

12Z RGEM has an inch or so north of the river, 2" for CVG and 3-5" for our S counties in KY.

12z GFS is close to a carbon copy of its 6z

Concerning the precip from the gfs I have the amounts about 20 or so miles further north and maybe a tad higher by .005 or so but again not that far off this stage in the game

Look at how much colder the Thurs system is coming in. Another bump or two south and we'll get snow.

CVG

Starting to see the models for storm 2 and 3 go further south. With that strong of a negative AO I thought this would be the case but hopefully this trend continues. With the second storm being rather strong I also thought this would give a push of colder air further south and east as well.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2025 11:01 am Concerning the precip from the gfs I have the amounts about 20 or so miles further north and maybe a tad higher by .005 or so but again not that far off this stage in the game

A little tweak here and there for me but not far off with what’s in my head

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2025 11:08 am Starting to see the models for storm 2 and 3 go further south. With that strong of a negative AO I thought this would be the case but hopefully this trend continues. With the second storm being rather strong I also thought this would give a push of colder air further south and east as well.

I'm wondering if next weekend keeps trending this way. One more tick south and its game on!

The Canadian is decent for Tues, still rain to snow Wed night and Thurs.

I still believe the late Wednesday and Thursday system is the kitchen sink as the systems are not far enough apart to bring in the full amount of cold we need but next weekend and beyond imo the colder air is in force. The forecast of the AO is more negative than we had in early January and that is been sticking with me when I saw the plunge one day in the data and that has not changed. Still have systems though coming into the pacific as well so not this week but the following could be even more interesting and hopefully by then the NAO is either neutral or negative

Seeing some trends today too on some models, 12Z Euro included, is a later start time, a Tues afternoon event 0.16" QPF for CVG.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2025 12:31 pm Seeing some trends today too on some models, 12Z Euro included, is a later start time, a Tues afternoon event 0.16" QPF for CVG.

EU and GFS aren’t to far apart with QPF

I don’t think my mind has changed after today’s 12z. Counties bordering the river 1-2”. Counties above those and up to the I70crew an inch or less and I’ll go with our far SEcrew ( Brown county) a 1-3” possibility

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2025 12:50 pm I don’t think my mind has changed after today’s 12z. Counties bordering the river 1-2”. Counties above those and up to the I70crew an inch or less and I’ll go with our far SEcrew ( Brown county) a 1-3” possibility

That looks perfect. Will there be some 4 inch totals and probably yes but just north of the rain/snow line and that seems to be out of the local area but could be as close as Dry Ridge if the system is a tad stronger and further north. Les mentioned the later start on Tuesday and if you can get past that 10a-2pm time period snow can accumulate more with the sun starting the phase of setting in the west.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2025 12:57 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2025 12:50 pm I don’t think my mind has changed after today’s 12z. Counties bordering the river 1-2”. Counties above those and up to the I70crew an inch or less and I’ll go with our far SEcrew ( Brown county) a 1-3” possibility

That looks perfect. Will there be some 4 inch totals and probably yes but just north of the rain/snow line and that seems to be out of the local area but could be as close as Dry Ridge if the system is a tad stronger and further north. Les mentioned the later start on Tuesday and if you can get past that 10a-2pm time period snow can accumulate more with the sun starting the phase of setting in the west.

Thanks Tim

Btw the way with the storm next weekend and it looks to be even stronger and maybe signs the NAO is at least neutral. Another kitchen sink but I believe the storm itself will change to a colder look before it hits. How much colder and lets get through the first two storms

Talked to my son again this morning and final total at his house 12.5 inches, He said up the road about 20 miles nearly 15 inches.

For the Tues system e.g. I'm not expecting anything if at all for here in Darke Co. Will be pleasantly surprised to get some flurries up this way on that one.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2025 1:01 pm Btw the way with the storm next weekend and it looks to be even stronger and maybe signs the NAO is at least neutral. Another kitchen sink but I believe the storm itself will change to a colder look before it hits. How much colder and lets get through the first two storms

Talked to my son again this morning and final total at his house 12.5 inches, He said up the road about 20 miles nearly 15 inches.

I'm sure your son is happy to finally cash in!

The boys had this to say for Tues:

Surface high pressure will begin to push eastward towards the
Atlantic coast Monday night. Dry conditions will continue, but
increasing clouds are expected overnight. This is in response to a
surface wave traversing the southern CONUS. As we continue to get
closer to the onset of this system, majority of models still suggest
that our CWA will be on the northern fringe of the precip shield.
Snowfall may arrive as early as Tuesday morning now in our northern
KY counties. The area of enhanced snow potential is still likely to
remain just south of our CWA where the transition zone aligns
itself. CAMs may help provide some insight on assessing the northern
extent of this snowfall, but limited (to no) snow accumulations are
expected near and NW of the I-71 corridor. Forecast trends still
suggest 1-3" of snowfall possible, primarily in northern KY and
perhaps portions of the lower Scioto Valley. Some isolated spots
could observe up to 4" in our far southeast counties (near Lewis,
KY). Accumulations decrease to <1" as you heads towards I-71.

Trended north today as expected. Winter Storm Warning criteria is likely for a portion of the region.

Blizzard next weekend?

SREF and NAM. SREF has been leading the way for the northern movement.

We definitely got NAM'ed on that run!


CVG

I think the 12z Euro is picking up on what the short range models are seeing. The upper level energy heading farther north than previously depicted.

GFS continues to ride the southern end.

18Z GFS is similar to the 12Z run on Tues 0.12" QPF at CVG

Such an fine line between no snow and several inches but this happens with these weaker waves and you need to be in the perfect spot to get the heavier snows. I know the NWS in Louisville is talking about a winter storm watch for a narrow area but trying to hone in the exact location. I agree with that and somewhere just above the rain/snow line you can 4 maybe 5 inches of heavy wet snow. Still sticking the the forecast Bgoney has put out earlier and seems the most likely outcome but again how far south does that front go and one item is the amount of precip which has kept me away mainly from the gfs and stuck more towards the Euro