February 2025 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

The Canadian I think is too cold. Much of it is a swing and a miss. I'm not concerned about suppression at all right now.

[tron777]

66 now at CVG so we've tied the record for today. It's in the bag now with regards to breaking it.

[tron777]

Day 9... 12Z Euro still looking great for snow on the 12th.

[Bgoney]

66 now at CVG so we've tied the record for today. It's in the bag now with regards to breaking it.

Fast propagating MJO through the maritimes imo, has shortened the lag time effects. If it keeps the fast forward propagation expect more of the same (shortened lag time)

IMG_3156.png

[tpweather]

I agree the CMC looks to cold and the reason is a strong high coming from the northwest at 1056 compared to the GFS at 1044.

[tron777]

66 now at CVG so we've tied the record for today. It's in the bag now with regards to breaking it.

Fast propagating MJO through the maritimes imo, has shortened the lag time effects. If it keeps the fast forward propagation expect more of the same (shortened lag time)

Agreed... the MJO modeling today shows that it keeps on moving and does not get into the COD. Euro is faster then the GEFS so we certainly want to see the Euro pan out for this.

[tron777]

I agree the CMC looks to cold and the reason is a strong high coming from the northwest at 1056 compared to the GFS at 1044.

Euro looking good in its extended range.

[tron777]

68 degrees here, wow! CVG still holding at 66. 70 at the Carroll co mesonet site. 67 at the Boone co site, 69 in Campbell co.

Correction: 67 as of 2pm at CVG so we broke it!

[tron777]

Code: Select all

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 PM EST MON FEB 03 2025

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT CINCINNATI OH...

THE TEMPERATURE AT THE CINCINNATI NORTHERN KENTUCKY AIRPORT HAS 
REACHED 67 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD 
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE OF 66 DEGREES FROM 1883.

[Bgoney]

Think I’ll be sneaking in a grill night as long as I can find a spot out of the wind

[tron777]

Everybody broke the record high for today:

Dayton: Hit 63 Previous record 62°F, set in 2020 and 1927
Columbus: Hit 64 Previous record 64°F, set in 2020 and 1890

[tron777]

For the first possible wintry event around the 11=12th 12Z EPS Ensemble Mean map here showing QPF and 850 MB temps. Much further south then the Operational Euro.

EPS Mean.png

[tron777]

Folks....

In order for the longevity of this upcoming pattern to continue for a while, like into March would be for a clean splitting of the PV. Below are images form today's Euro which shows a clean splitting of the vortex into two pieces with a ridge bridge over the top. IMO, we want to see this occur. euro family, new Euro weeklies are going all in on the cold and wintry pattern thru mdi March. We'll see! They have done a great job this winter. GEFS has been too warm and incorrect. It has the elongation of the PV, but is temporary. We would get 10-14 days out of this nice pattern then we warm up again. Still active though, but the cold and snow doesn't hang on. 2 weeks or so versus 3-4 weeks is what we're looking at between the Euro and GEFS solutions.

Euro PV 1.png

Euro PV 2.png

Euro PV 3.png

As a side note, check out the below PDO Index readings from January of 2024 to January of 2025. Note how it is rising. Wonderful news here! This is happening due to more frequent -EPO / -WPO blocking on the Pacific side. The Pacific this year has been great! It has also helped that the Atlantic side has been helpful too. This is helping to offset the La Nina influences. Since it is a weak Nina, these other factors can take over and become pattern drivers.

2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.04
2025 -1.32

[tron777]

69 now at CVG, 70 here! Egads....

[tpweather]

The wonderful NAM still pushing out fr/rain for the next system early on. Sorry not biting on this one. Sure we get colder on Tuesday and the cold is nice but with this warm up before the surface temps will be too warm. If this was last week at this time then a different story.

[tron777]

The wonderful NAM still pushing out fr/rain for the next system early on. Sorry not biting on this one. Sure we get colder on Tuesday and the cold is nice but with this warm up before the surface temps will be too warm. If this was last week at this time then a different story.

I agree Tim. Almost 70 degrees today,. 40s tomorrow so I think we'll be fine. Even I-70 Crew got up into the low and mid 60s too.

[Bgoney]

IMG_3157.png

The GEFS continues to depict an amplified 500-hPa trough extending from Hudson Bay southwestward to the Rockies. Downstream of this anomalous trough, the GEFS depicts multiple waves of low pressure tracking eastward from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Based on the GEFS Snow Water Equivalent Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) along with GEFS and ECMWF ensemble mean snowfall amounts, a slight risk of heavy snow is posted across the Ozarks, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast through February 15. Due to uncertainty on the timing and track of each wave of low pressure along with precipitation type, a moderate risk is not posted at this time.

[tron777]

CVG actually hit 70 today per the 5pm climate report. Last 70 we had was back on Nov 6th when we hit 71 degrees.

[Bgoney]

Past 24 hrs of record warmth

IMG_3158.gif

[tpweather]

Good Evening and I see the SREF is hitting harder on the frz/rain Wednesday. Maybe I am missing something here and especially when it comes to ice. Still having a hard time seeing it being a problem but again will watch the trend overnight. 70 was nice today and could still use some more rain to help with the roads once again.

[MVWxObserver]

Wow! as CVG got to 70 (old record 66 ~ 1883), DAY 66 (old record 62 ~ 1927 / 2020) and CMH 65 (old record 63 ~ 1890 / 2020) today!

[tron777]

Good Evening and I see the SREF is hitting harder on the frz/rain Wednesday. Maybe I am missing something here and especially when it comes to ice. Still having a hard time seeing it being a problem but again will watch the trend overnight. 70 was nice today and could still use some more rain to help with the roads once again.

The trend is increasing on Wed. North of Cincy IMO is our best chance ala I-70 Crew. We may need to hit this a little harder depending on what the data says today. The boys had this to say:

On Wednesday a system begins to approach the region. Once again
decreased temperatures for Wednesday. Temperatures across most
locations during the day on Wednesday will be near or below
freezing. The warmest temperatures will be south of the Ohio
River where some upper 30s will be possible. There will be the
potential for some sleet on the leading edge of the
precipitation. Due to warmer air starting to work into the area
aloft, freezing rain will be possible. Freezing rain will
continue into the long term time period Wednesday night. Will
highlight freezing rain threat in the HWO.

[Bgoney]

IMG_3159.jpeg

[Bgoney]

IMG_3160.png

IMG_3161.png

[tron777]

The overnight models have increased the rainfall amounts with our next system. Can we believe it is the question? then we watch the Sat rain maker. After that our first potential wintry system arrives by the middle of next week. We are about 8 days out now with tracking the first potential system as the new pattern takes shape.