Absolute Vorticity

Just looking at the NWS long term forecast and a few things not adding up and going to give the models a few days to catch up but one item is they almost have the entire USA above normal in temps. Yes it can happen but usually the AO would be very positive and the NAO positive as well and a more neutral PNA. Not seeing this with the tellies but maybe the model input takes time. The mjo also shows going into phase 5 maybe but nothing strong or heading to phase 6. This as well may be a delay in model input. Will watch these over the next few days but yes there is plenty of mild pacific air that could come across the country but usually this does not take over the entire country. Yes expecting a mild spell but this may a bit more than I expected for the country though the model is not showing blow torch but a moderate warming so temps in the low 50's here and lows in the 30's.

CVG reached 32, DAY 31 and CMH 30 today.

Yes got a covering outside but it looks like the snow stopped. If we can get this kind of snow every 2-3 days we may end up with an average season lol

I can see stars and it’s still flurrying out. Nice little dusting

Good morning all! 22 IMBY this morning with another covering of snow. Snowfall contest thread has been updated thru 12/2. Our next thing to watch is warm air on Wed coming in as arctic air is on its way out. A rain / snow shower is possible as well as a touch of sleet. Tim mentioned this the other day. I still believe this to be minor though. Of more significance, an arctic cold front passes early Thurs. so a burst of snow is likely with it as temps plummet. Winds to 35 mph will also be around as temps fall thru the 20s. We will stay in the 20s on Thursday all day long. Friday is also cold. We will moderate this weekend into the 40s.

By Sun night and Monday of next week, we are above avg with the 50s as rain enters the forecast picture. After that, models diverge as we see a slow moving frontal boundary and multiple lows moving along it. The first low is a rain maker Tues night and Wed. Can we get one of these lows to time out correctly to give us some snow say Wed night / Thurs of next week? The timing will differ but can this idea occur? It's always about timing. Can the front push thru far enough to the east so the second low passes SE of us and we are on the cold side and get the deformation zone? That is what I will be watching for our next decent shot at snow once we get into next week.

18 and a dusting

Good Morning guys and yes next week looks busier and again like Les mentioned timing will be key. Normally in a pattern like this we start out with a system that brings us milder air rain and then Les you mentioned how south and east does the front dig and we need this dig more in the south central states compared to the southeast. Does look a decent shot of cold behind the first system but will it get far enough south for us to have some winter weather. The cmc does but again this model is normally colder and the euro to slow ejecting energy out of the southwest and the gfs is usually to quick with systems. We know the bias and yes sometime the bias works but we need to see the setup first and then can either go with the bias of disregard the model run because of the bias. Will not be boring next but hopefully we get some snow at some point.

How About Juneau,Alaska with 14 inches of snow on Sunday followed by nearly 1/2 inch of frz/rain and since then over 1 inch of rain with another1-3 inches of rain possible. Talk about flooding

Throw the AI model in for a potential rain/ snow maker around the 11/12th time period with a Apps low track

GEFS shows a stripe of snow with the secondary low later next week to our East. EPS is more favorable looking for us. OP GFS is too far East, OP Euro too far West with the CMC right in the middle. I have no idea what will happen this far away, but I am confident in rain and mild temps to start off the week. Then, we'll just have to wait and see how amplified (or not) the pattern is to see how far south the next trough can dig to spin off that secondary low sometime Wed into Thurs time frame. Generally speaking, our luck with these set up's aren't that good. We either get a cutter or a swing and a miss to the East. It is pretty tough to get it tracking just right up the Apps. However, all things considered... this cold spell has been impressive since it's so early in the season. Maybe this could be our winter for a change? We'll have to wait and see! We should know more early next once we see how things look and where the front for Monday actually stalls out.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 6:13 am Throw the AI model in for a potential rain/ snow maker around the 11/12th time period with a Apps low track

How has the model done. I don't pay much attention to the results of that model and was just wondering if it has a good track record.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 6:12 am How About Juneau,Alaska with 14 inches of snow on Sunday followed by nearly 1/2 inch of frz/rain and since then over 1 inch of rain with another1-3 inches of rain possible. Talk about flooding

Oh wow... that has to be an awful mess! They can keep that nonsense.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 6:15 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 6:13 am Throw the AI model in for a potential rain/ snow maker around the 11/12th time period with a Apps low track

How has the model done. I don't pay much attention to the results of that model and was just wondering if it has a good track record.

I am logged in on the customer side right now so I cannot see this webpage to know if this is what you are looking for or not. If I am reading the Google description correctly, this is supposed to be a webpage from the ECMWF folks showing (in chart form) model verification scores for the ECMWF AI model at 500 MB.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets=%7B%22 ... A%5B%5D%7D

Will watch next week as the southern jet has been rather far south but expecting it to move further north and with any energy from the west this can no doubt bring a much more active pattern. How these interact is still a few days away and maybe not until the weekend do we have a better ideal once the players get on the field.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 6:15 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 6:13 am Throw the AI model in for a potential rain/ snow maker around the 11/12th time period with a Apps low track

How has the model done. I don't pay much attention to the results of that model and was just wondering if it has a good track record.

I’ve mostly been using it for 500mb in medium and long range situations which imo does just as well as EU ensembles.

Good to know and I agree the 500mb really helps when models are just not seeing eye to eye. Still want to see more snow to the north and west over the next few weeks. Good example is we have got 2.7 inches of snow this season and my son in Wausau,Wi had 1.5. The snow has been nice across southern Canada and the interior northeast and of course off the lakes especially the eastern lakes but keeping bare ground west and northwest of us tends to lead to milder temps able to move in much quicker than normal after the northwest flow is done

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 6:44 am Good to know and I agree the 500mb really helps when models are just not seeing eye to eye. Still want to see more snow to the north and west over the next few weeks. Good example is we have got 2.7 inches of snow this season and my son in Wausau,Wi had 1.5. The snow has been nice across southern Canada and the interior northeast and of course off the lakes especially the eastern lakes but keeping bare ground west and northwest of us tends to lead to milder temps able to move in much quicker than normal after the northwest flow is done

Portions of SE Iowa just got their 1st measureable snow of the season last night. Not even a half inch so we are beating that area too.

Looks like most of the models have us just getting into phase five and most have it going through phase 5 but weakening however a few throws it into phase 6 which is a much warmer phase. Which is correct and not sure though we turn milder late this weekend and early next week I do expect some cold to return but once we get towards the 15th or so I expect a milder period that can last 7-10 days. When you have a neutral ENSO it seems that for the most part you end up closer to the norms on temps and precip over an entire winter around here. Probably where I got my 4-4-4 prediction of 4 weeks good chances of winter weather, 4 weeks of either rain or snow and 4 weeks you can throw the chances out the window. So this first week we have one of the 4 weeks of a good chance and next week may be placed in that either rain or snow week.

The long range temp uncertainties are a good thing . How many Decembers have we seen where it’s a slam dunk that we could tell well ahead of time that an extended well above normal period temp wise was coming. A very different December

Easterly’s still going strong for an extended period

22 as of 8am at CVG with flurries. Not seeing anything falling here in Mason. Are there any of you seeing any flakes right now? Radar shows a touch of snow SE of I-71 at this time.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 03, 2024 8:00 am Easterly’s still going strong for an extended period

I wonder if the Nina is still trying to get its act together? Typically this is the time of year you would see it start to peak. I still do not think that ENSO is going to be driving the pattern though. MJO (and other factors) still should rule IMO. Hopefully the current -EPO pattern we are seeing is a staple of the upcoming winter. I am seeing shades of 2013-2014. Would love to see half of the snow this winter that we saw that winter. It would still be above avg!

Chardon was spared the worst of the lake effect but still tallied about a foot over several days. Another 6-12+++ inches likely by Friday morning from an Arctic front and more LES. The next storm moves in late Wednesday.

Thanks for the pics SB2, keep them coming!!



SOI for 30 day average is now above +7 , so a better coupling of the atmosphere to LaNina , atm . Have to watch and see if those numbers keep climbing or level off this month

I second it! Post your videos too, Jeff if you can! For those that do not know, Jeff posts videos on his Facebook page of the LES action.