Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:55 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:40 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:31 pm 12z Gfs showing a lot going on the next 7-10+ days while not much changes for the OV . It’s a stare down between the SE ridge, central trough and the tropical system in the Southern GOM. Pretty much a stalemate. Drought improving rains remain just to our west as we get the leftovers

Yes I agree Bgoney and once the tropics are finished is when we see the shift to a stormier pattern. Without the tropics the high in the Atlantic should weaken and with the GOM opening up for business systems will slowly invade the Ohio Valley. This is nothing new each fall but its normally mid-Oct we see this unfold compared to early November. We should get some rainfall over the week to 10 days but I still believe that each week that goes by the stormier the pattern unfolds.

I think the only chance we have at putting a dent in the drought over the next 10 days or so is if the tropical system can phase with an incoming front to get the moisture funneled in our direction. Otherwise, we will see some rain but it will be on the light side as the current pattern rolls on.

No disagreement here, lighter rains the first 7-10 days. Then for mid month on , we need the troughs to keep on coming into the west and Midwest , if it does, we stand a much better chance at getting meaningful qpf

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:55 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:40 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:31 pm 12z Gfs showing a lot going on the next 7-10+ days while not much changes for the OV . It’s a stare down between the SE ridge, central trough and the tropical system in the Southern GOM. Pretty much a stalemate. Drought improving rains remain just to our west as we get the leftovers

Yes I agree Bgoney and once the tropics are finished is when we see the shift to a stormier pattern. Without the tropics the high in the Atlantic should weaken and with the GOM opening up for business systems will slowly invade the Ohio Valley. This is nothing new each fall but its normally mid-Oct we see this unfold compared to early November. We should get some rainfall over the week to 10 days but I still believe that each week that goes by the stormier the pattern unfolds.

I think the only chance we have at putting a dent in the drought over the next 10 days or so is if the tropical system can phase with an incoming front to get the moisture funneled in our direction. Otherwise, we will see some rain but it will be on the light side as the current pattern rolls on.

No disagreement here, lighter rains the first 7-10 days. Then for mid month on , we need the troughs to keep on coming into the west and Midwest , if it does, we stand a much better chance at getting meaningful qpf

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:55 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:40 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:31 pm 12z Gfs showing a lot going on the next 7-10+ days while not much changes for the OV . It’s a stare down between the SE ridge, central trough and the tropical system in the Southern GOM. Pretty much a stalemate. Drought improving rains remain just to our west as we get the leftovers

Yes I agree Bgoney and once the tropics are finished is when we see the shift to a stormier pattern. Without the tropics the high in the Atlantic should weaken and with the GOM opening up for business systems will slowly invade the Ohio Valley. This is nothing new each fall but its normally mid-Oct we see this unfold compared to early November. We should get some rainfall over the week to 10 days but I still believe that each week that goes by the stormier the pattern unfolds.

I think the only chance we have at putting a dent in the drought over the next 10 days or so is if the tropical system can phase with an incoming front to get the moisture funneled in our direction. Otherwise, we will see some rain but it will be on the light side as the current pattern rolls on.

Hey Les we disagree maybe on this and really more technical. Will it be a phase which no doubt would give us a better shot of rain or is it the tropical moisture that flows out of the GOM that gives us some rainfall. If a tropical systems heads say towards northern Mexico this should also weaken the high in the Atlantic and the flow from the GOM should be able to work in here. The one way that hurts us if tropical system somehow moves into Florida or southeast Georgia and South Carolina then the tropical moisture is east of us plus this would probably delay systems further west by a few days. Lots to unfold and models have been rather far apart lately in how they see the pattern shaping up later next week.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 1:18 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:55 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:40 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 01, 2024 12:31 pm 12z Gfs showing a lot going on the next 7-10+ days while not much changes for the OV . It’s a stare down between the SE ridge, central trough and the tropical system in the Southern GOM. Pretty much a stalemate. Drought improving rains remain just to our west as we get the leftovers

Yes I agree Bgoney and once the tropics are finished is when we see the shift to a stormier pattern. Without the tropics the high in the Atlantic should weaken and with the GOM opening up for business systems will slowly invade the Ohio Valley. This is nothing new each fall but its normally mid-Oct we see this unfold compared to early November. We should get some rainfall over the week to 10 days but I still believe that each week that goes by the stormier the pattern unfolds.

I think the only chance we have at putting a dent in the drought over the next 10 days or so is if the tropical system can phase with an incoming front to get the moisture funneled in our direction. Otherwise, we will see some rain but it will be on the light side as the current pattern rolls on.

Hey Les we disagree maybe on this and really more technical. Will it be a phase which no doubt would give us a better shot of rain or is it the tropical moisture that flows out of the GOM that gives us some rainfall. If a tropical systems heads say towards northern Mexico this should also weaken the high in the Atlantic and the flow from the GOM should be able to work in here. The one way that hurts us if tropical system somehow moves into Florida or southeast Georgia and South Carolina then the tropical moisture is east of us plus this would probably delay systems further west by a few days. Lots to unfold and models have been rather far apart lately in how they see the pattern shaping up later next week.

Any idea that anyone has is good this far out. First thing is that the tropical system must develop. After that happens (assuming it does), then we have to see if the system can catch a ride via a frontal boundary or does it continue west and get into Mexico? Like you said Tim, lots to unfold for sure and the models will offer various solutions until we get closer. For now, I am going with persistence and it's hard not too. We all agree on the warmth, I am going below normal for the 1st half of the month precip wise. Could we end up below normal for the entire month? Certainly can, but to your point Tim, eventually things usually do pick up. You're not wrong about that, but the $64,0000 question is... when?

12z EU has a similar stalemate scenario and results to the GFS, for the first 7-10 days

Past Euro AI runs continue to show much wetter conditions with a frontal boundary next week stalling on top of us. The tropical system misses well east of the region but we still get storminess due to a pretty strong low / cold front towards the end of the run. It is an outlier solution for now, but it would be great for the drought if to were to occur.

61 here and at CVG today. Expecting the mid 30s to L40s across the region by morning. A gorgeous Mid 60s on Sat then a small rain chance Sunday with the warm front. 70s for a little bit.

Good Evening and one item on the weather map is the system heading for Oklahoma. This system can produce over 5 inches in many areas with some totals maybe hitting 8 or 9 inches. That is why the flash flood watch and especially since the ground is so dry in many areas the heavy rain can cause the flooding because is has a hard time soaking into the hard ground. What you hope happens is some lighter rains that can somewhat soak in the ground.

35 here. Feels nice out.

Overnight models didn’t change from yesterday. Shower’s Tuesday/Wednesday on the weaker side, at this point, a half inch or less for Dayton/Cbus/Cvg and that’s for the whole week, as things still become stuck in place. More record warmth for most of next week from the Midwest through the OV and into the East coast (highs and lows)

Good morning all! 37 currently IMBY this morning. A nice day on tap for sure. Can't rule out a shower late tomorrow with the warm front but most folks should remain dry. Good tailgating weather if you are going to the Bengals game! Bgoney has us covered for next week in his above post so I will keep my post on the shorter side this morning. Shocker... I know!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 6:55 am Good morning all! 37 currently IMBY this morning. A nice day on tap for sure. Can't rule out a shower late tomorrow with the warm front but most folks should remain dry. Good tailgating weather if you are going to the Bengals game! Bgoney has us covered for next week in his above post so I will keep my post on the shorter side this morning. Shocker... I know!

Les are you feeling okay lol. When my post is on the shorter side it means either I am sick or fell asleep. Bgoney forecast looks good and at least we have some weather to talk about across the nation. November is normally busy and that is shaping up to be the case. Usually have a second season severe season though we are usually on the border for that but with the warmth around points further north may be included this season.

Hopefully election day remains mainly dry for folks and if you want to vote that is fine but we do live in a country where you don't have to and that is fine as well. Politics and religion are personal and it amazes me when folks get so out of shape on either one. Of course talking about the weather should be a law imo lol

November stats thanks to the Gummer.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 7:09 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 6:55 am Good morning all! 37 currently IMBY this morning. A nice day on tap for sure. Can't rule out a shower late tomorrow with the warm front but most folks should remain dry. Good tailgating weather if you are going to the Bengals game! Bgoney has us covered for next week in his above post so I will keep my post on the shorter side this morning. Shocker... I know!

Les are you feeling okay lol. When my post is on the shorter side it means either I am sick or fell asleep. Bgoney forecast looks good and at least we have some weather to talk about across the nation. November is normally busy and that is shaping up to be the case. Usually have a second season severe season though we are usually on the border for that but with the warmth around points further north may be included this season.

Hopefully election day remains mainly dry for folks and if you want to vote that is fine but we do live in a country where you don't have to and that is fine as well. Politics and religion are personal and it amazes me when folks get so out of shape on either one. Of course talking about the weather should be a law imo lol

I'm good Tim! I just couldn't think of anything else to say at the time since we're not tracking any major storms for us at the moment. I agree though... talking weather and especially snow is mandatory!

I feel like I’m in mid winter season form forecasting a half inch or less the last two events

American citizens should vote if they're able to and do their civic duty.

For those that don't vote, don't complain then about who gets into office and with re to their policies.

Our Founding Fathers had of course at times, understandably, lively and occasionally heated conversations there in Philadelphia.

Currently 33 here in G'ville and progged for around 60 today.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:00 am American citizens should vote if they're able to and do their civic duty.

Currently 33 here in G'ville and progged for around 60 today.

Hey Eric, hope you and your family are doing well. We don't disagree on much but the voting we do and that is fine.

I just did the early voting, was about a half hour wait. A nice day too currently 57 IMBY. Going to do another leaf grinding here shortly.

Leaf grinding done for another few weeks until we get some more oak droppage which comes not only from my own but 2 other large oaks in a neighbors yard that when we get SW winds I get all the leaves. I'd say I will have at least 2 more leaf grindings to go for the season.

CVG reached 63 and both DAY / CMH 61 today.

63 here today. Tested all the smoke alarms today and changed some of the batteries out where need be. Changed the furnace filter. Just getting things ready for our favorite season!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 6:29 pm 63 here today. Tested all the smoke alarms today and changed some of the batteries out where need be. Changed the furnace filter. Just getting things ready for our favorite season!

No doubt Les and not sure what I am doing with that extra hour. I guess I will get up at 4am instead of 5am. I don't mind getting old but the 3-6 hours or sleep is something I am not a fan of. Need more activity I guess but even days like that no more than 6 is tops.

Love that extra hour of sleep!

Just started paying attention to the MJO forecasting plots a week or two ago and the most notable thing is how bad the BOMM is going to be with its forecast intensity in the pacific

Good Morning and a bit chilly this morning. Nice day in store and Monday may see temps nearing the upper 70's once again. Tuesday will be probably be in the low 70's with additional cloud cover ahead of the cold front. The bigger issue is the overnight lows the next few nights and talking 20 degrees above normal. How much rain will we get and again locally 0.25-.5 seems the correct amount though this system does have some GOM moisture available as we see in the central plains with a beautiful soaking for many. The tropics and still and issue. Still not sure a tropical system is able to hit the mainland but tropical moisture is very likely. The atmosphere is changing and normal for November as we move from fall to winter. We know November should end up milder than normal but also rainfall should be closer to normal this month. With this pattern we will see a big cool down in Canada and just for lack of sunshine is one reason but the Polar Vortex is strong at the moment but shows signs of throwing out a few spokes towards the USA but these should stop short and the main cold will happen in southern Canada. Again this is normal for November and though the pattern is a few weeks behind normal Mother Nature will do her best to play catch up.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 8:24 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 6:29 pm 63 here today. Tested all the smoke alarms today and changed some of the batteries out where need be. Changed the furnace filter. Just getting things ready for our favorite season!

No doubt Les and not sure what I am doing with that extra hour. I guess I will get up at 4am instead of 5am. I don't mind getting old but the 3-6 hours or sleep is something I am not a fan of. Need more activity I guess but even days like that no more than 6 is tops.

Good morning Tim! I loved that extra hour of sleep. Was up at 6am and Mom and I went to Church this morning as I usually do then we went to breakfast. It was my turn to pay. A beautiful day in progress. Taking the day off to watch football and My Lions at 4:25pm on Fox! Got the smoker going too for dinner. Marinated a chuck roast and I just put it on. Will smoke it for about 3 or 4 hours in the marinate Will flip it over half way thru. Then, I'll put a nice sear / char on it over the firebox side at the end. Should be tasty!

Weatherwise, we have a gorgeous day in progress! Feels great being outside with a nice breeze and some leaves falling off the trees. I love my cold and snow but you can't beat a low humidity 60-70 degree fall day (even though we need the rain).