Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:28 am A lot of the forecast models continue to paint an ugly situation for Tampa Bay area. Landfall is looking more and more possible right in the bay itself overnight on Wednesday. The surge into downtown and the Airport (assuming this occurs) will be catastrophic. Like I said yesterday, if it's a Cat 3 at landfall, with a track like that, expect Cat 4 or 5 storm surge and damage as a result. The area is already weak and saturated from Helene as well as pre-game rainfall ahead of Milton. Just a terrible scenario for a densely populated Metro area, about to unfold.

Going to be a Nail biter for Tampa up until the end. If it goes 20-40miles south of Tampa the surge of course will be much less for them .

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 10:20 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:28 am A lot of the forecast models continue to paint an ugly situation for Tampa Bay area. Landfall is looking more and more possible right in the bay itself overnight on Wednesday. The surge into downtown and the Airport (assuming this occurs) will be catastrophic. Like I said yesterday, if it's a Cat 3 at landfall, with a track like that, expect Cat 4 or 5 storm surge and damage as a result. The area is already weak and saturated from Helene as well as pre-game rainfall ahead of Milton. Just a terrible scenario for a densely populated Metro area, about to unfold.

Going to be a Nail biter for Tampa up until the end. If it goes 20-40miles south of Tampa the surge of course will be much less for them .

Exactly! You can flip a coin basically right now. It could go either way (N or S of the bay).

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 10:20 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:28 am A lot of the forecast models continue to paint an ugly situation for Tampa Bay area. Landfall is looking more and more possible right in the bay itself overnight on Wednesday. The surge into downtown and the Airport (assuming this occurs) will be catastrophic. Like I said yesterday, if it's a Cat 3 at landfall, with a track like that, expect Cat 4 or 5 storm surge and damage as a result. The area is already weak and saturated from Helene as well as pre-game rainfall ahead of Milton. Just a terrible scenario for a densely populated Metro area, about to unfold.

Going to be a Nail biter for Tampa up until the end. If it goes 20-40miles south of Tampa the surge of course will be much less for them .

That was part of the basis for my question on the ATL Cane thread, that area on the Atlantic saide, could that (hopefully) interact just enough to maybe wobble Milton off target a little? Miracles do happen folks, maybe this is what we are seeing. Praying for that!

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON FORECAST TO RETAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AND EXPAND IN
SIZE WHILE IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR
FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL
OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 88.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 10:56 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 10:20 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:28 am A lot of the forecast models continue to paint an ugly situation for Tampa Bay area. Landfall is looking more and more possible right in the bay itself overnight on Wednesday. The surge into downtown and the Airport (assuming this occurs) will be catastrophic. Like I said yesterday, if it's a Cat 3 at landfall, with a track like that, expect Cat 4 or 5 storm surge and damage as a result. The area is already weak and saturated from Helene as well as pre-game rainfall ahead of Milton. Just a terrible scenario for a densely populated Metro area, about to unfold.

Going to be a Nail biter for Tampa up until the end. If it goes 20-40miles south of Tampa the surge of course will be much less for them .

That was part of the basis for my question on the ATL Cane thread, that area on the Atlantic saide, could that (hopefully) interact just enough to maybe wobble Milton off target a little? Miracles do happen folks, maybe this is what we are seeing. Praying for that!

You cannot rule anything out in weather Dave, but it is not expected to have an impact per the forecast models. That feature is moving NE away from the coast and Milton should be able to push it out of the way if you will as it comes ashore and moves over FL. Milton will re-emerge over water on the Atlantic side on Thursday.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:17 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:07 am The destruction / deaths from Helene and then with Milton combined are going to so MAJORLY SCREW UP the 2024 Election voting process e.g.!! **SMH** Voter rolls having to be cleaned UP because of fatalities and polling places damaged and ./ or destroyed along with roadways and streets.

Sadly though, liberals thrive on CHAOS and the MSM bobbleheads will be declaring Queenie MADame Neurotic Cackle Hen the "winner" no matter what on Election night or early the day after!! Add extreme Ma Nature just to make the CROOKED UP Election a heckuva lot worse!

Sorry for the soapbox rant, but the timing of ALL years for the 2024 Tropical Season in the Atl, Car, and GOM to EXPLODE is just mind blowing on so many routes!

All good Bro, however, IMO, I think politics should be left out of the discussion in this instance, since these are people's lives that are going to be disrupted, and for some people, this will be a second disruption. For some people, there lives will be changed forever and it'll be months of clean up ahead.

I apologize and realize that Bro.

Anyway, back to Milton discussion.

...SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys.

We are going to see some horrific pictures and videos in the coming days. The area where this storm could be making landfall is very highly developed now, even along the immediate coast. When Helene made landfall near Perry, FL in the panhandle, that was more marshy / swamp land versus near the Tampa Bay region. You have Tampa / St. Pete, Sarasota, Ft. Myers, etc etc. all in the potential landfall cone of uncertainty. These are very highly developed and densely populated regions. That is what is going to make this storm so bad. This is why I keep making a big deal out of the storm surge.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 12:37 pm We are going to see some horrific pictures and videos in the coming days. The area where this storm could be making landfall is very highly developed now, even along the immediate coast. When Helene made landfall near Perry, FL in the panhandle, that was more marshy / swamp land versus near the Tampa Bay region. You have Tampa / St. Pete, Sarasota, Ft. Myers, etc etc. all in the potential landfall cone of uncertainty. These are very highly developed and densely populated regions. That is what is going to make this storm so bad. This is why I keep making a big deal out of the storm surge.

I pray and hope that friends of my folks and I in Tampa and a cousin in Melbourne have evacuated already into GA e.g. as well as scores of others. Hopefully they didn't wait until today when there will be bumper to bumper standstill traffic.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 12:43 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 12:37 pm We are going to see some horrific pictures and videos in the coming days. The area where this storm could be making landfall is very highly developed now, even along the immediate coast. When Helene made landfall near Perry, FL in the panhandle, that was more marshy / swamp land versus near the Tampa Bay region. You have Tampa / St. Pete, Sarasota, Ft. Myers, etc etc. all in the potential landfall cone of uncertainty. These are very highly developed and densely populated regions. That is what is going to make this storm so bad. This is why I keep making a big deal out of the storm surge.

I pray and hope that friends of my folks and I in Tampa and a cousin in Melbourne have evacuated already into GA e.g. as well as scores of others. Hopefully they didn't wait until today when there will be bumper to bumper standstill traffic.

No doubt Bro! I will be praying for the people in those affected areas as well. I think a lot of folks will. It's unfortunate, but it's a fact of life. With the technology today, people have tons of time to prepare! Can you imagine living back in the 1800s and you had no idea something like this was even coming? Wow! I shudder to think of that, but it obviously occurred. That's the good news. We have the technology today to let people know (and in some cases weeks ahead of time) that something is brewing.

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT MILTON'S INTENSITY
HAS REBOUNDED...
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR
FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

I can't post a satellite pic right now, but go out and look for yourselves. It's getting that beast mode look to it again!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 2:22 pm I can't post a satellite pic right now, but go out and look for yourselves. It's getting that beast mode look to it again!

I agree Les and once it got away from land and reformed a new eye it looks very strong once again plus its moving into another area of even warmer waters. Of course nearing the coast waters a tad cooler and again some sheer to the north but this storm will no doubt go in as a strong Cat 3 or maybe even a weak Cat 4 and really both the same. Some of those beaches in Florida still have tons of debris from Helena sitting on the beach and that stuff will just add to the problems.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 1:08 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 12:43 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 12:37 pm We are going to see some horrific pictures and videos in the coming days. The area where this storm could be making landfall is very highly developed now, even along the immediate coast. When Helene made landfall near Perry, FL in the panhandle, that was more marshy / swamp land versus near the Tampa Bay region. You have Tampa / St. Pete, Sarasota, Ft. Myers, etc etc. all in the potential landfall cone of uncertainty. These are very highly developed and densely populated regions. That is what is going to make this storm so bad. This is why I keep making a big deal out of the storm surge.

I pray and hope that friends of my folks and I in Tampa and a cousin in Melbourne have evacuated already into GA e.g. as well as scores of others. Hopefully they didn't wait until today when there will be bumper to bumper standstill traffic.

No doubt Bro! I will be praying for the people in those affected areas as well. I think a lot of folks will. It's unfortunate, but it's a fact of life. With the technology today, people have tons of time to prepare! Can you imagine living back in the 1800s and you had no idea something like this was even coming? Wow! I shudder to think of that, but it obviously occurred. That's the good news. We have the technology today to let people know (and in some cases weeks ahead of time) that something is brewing.

Same here Bro!

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 2:29 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 2:22 pm I can't post a satellite pic right now, but go out and look for yourselves. It's getting that beast mode look to it again!

I agree Les and once it got away from land and reformed a new eye it looks very strong once again plus its moving into another area of even warmer waters. Of course nearing the coast waters a tad cooler and again some sheer to the north but this storm will no doubt go in as a strong Cat 3 or maybe even a weak Cat 4 and really both the same. Some of those beaches in Florida still have tons of debris from Helena sitting on the beach and that stuff will just add to the problems.

I heard the other day that Gov. DeSantis has mobilized volunteer groups to try to remove at least some of the Helene debris there in the Panhandle e.g. to avoid becoming additional flying "missiles" via Milton effects.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 2:38 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 2:29 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 2:22 pm I can't post a satellite pic right now, but go out and look for yourselves. It's getting that beast mode look to it again!

I agree Les and once it got away from land and reformed a new eye it looks very strong once again plus its moving into another area of even warmer waters. Of course nearing the coast waters a tad cooler and again some sheer to the north but this storm will no doubt go in as a strong Cat 3 or maybe even a weak Cat 4 and really both the same. Some of those beaches in Florida still have tons of debris from Helena sitting on the beach and that stuff will just add to the problems.

I heard the other day that Gov. DeSantis has mobilized volunteer groups to try to remove at least some of the Helene debris there in the Panhandle e.g. to avoid becoming additional flying "missiles" via Milton effects.

Agreed fellas.... it's going to be a huge mess and a huge mess for a long time to come. The state doesn't have enough time to get rid of all of the debris from Helene despite their best efforts.

Speaking on TB area , another slight shift with track from NHC , so the nail biter for them continues to trend in a better direction as far as worst of the surge. The longer it keeps moving east right now the better for Tampa.
. Course that just means someone else is going to get it , so, what are you going to do ?

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:38 pm Speaking on TB area , another slight shift with track from NHC , so the nail biter for them continues to trend in a better direction as far as worst of the surge. The longer it keeps moving east right now the better for Tampa.
. Course that just means someone else is going to get it , so, what are you going to do ?

Exactly! Worse news for Sarasota, Ft. Myers etc. For Tampa if the S trend is correct, they would get more of the flooding rainfall but less in the way of storm surge.

A friend of mine lives in Cape Coral near the Caloosahatchee river west of Ft Myers and is expecting the huge storm surge as the SW winds belt his area. He just remodeled after hurricane Ian!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:48 pm A friend of mine lives in Cape Coral near the Caloosahatchee river west of Ft Myers and is expecting the huge storm surge as the SW winds belt his area. He just remodeled after hurricane Ian!

How far from the coast?

Back to a Cat 5!

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND
EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 87.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 22.7N 87.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.8N 86.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 25.6N 84.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 27.2N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 28.1N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 28.6N 77.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1800Z 30.6N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 31.8N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:51 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:48 pm A friend of mine lives in Cape Coral near the Caloosahatchee river west of Ft Myers and is expecting the huge storm surge as the SW winds belt his area. He just remodeled after hurricane Ian!

How far from the coast?

Ft. Myers could get more of the storm surge if this southward trend is correct with regards to the track.

Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term
12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 kt). Milton is forecast
to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves
between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near
the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance
has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw
model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC, and this
has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on
this cycle. It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours
(around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts
can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can't
pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional
wobbles occur in the short term. After landfall, Milton is
forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on
Thursday.

Looks like another tick south