Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Oct 03, 2024 1:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 03, 2024 1:15 pm Well Tim... today's 12Z GFS in the fantasy range has your name written all over it. First frost around the 17th or 18th?

Hey Les and we understand that if the tropics die down and you see most of the action south of Florida or even south of Cuba chances go up for some decent cold fronts. I still believe another reason is the ridging out west which makes a run at us the next few days ends up heading west later next week with the ridging moving up into western Canada. That has been my though for awhile and again with no true air heading into Alaska that I can see this also gives me hope we get these cold fronts coming through here starting with a nice one later Sunday and then maybe another one or two the following weekend into the week of Oct 14th. Once again if the tropics decide to spend more time near the mainland USA then the chances of colder air does goes down.

DT's video did some the VP anomalies (rising air versus sinking air) and there is a lot of sinking air over the Lower 48 and Atlantic tropical basins down the road so the tropics maybe shutting down if that is correct. If so, and if we get that ridge to poke up into AK and Western Canada, then today's long range GFS is absolutely believable. it's early, and things can change but it is interesting nonetheless. So far, your thoughts are looking good.

Les I missed the middle of September heat and though I expected warmer than normal I never saw the string of 90's and that was just a bad forecast especially since the tropics were getting their action together plus the drought and I should have been smarter.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Oct 03, 2024 1:34 pm Les I missed the middle of September heat and though I expected warmer than normal I never saw the string of 90's and that was just a bad forecast especially since the tropics were getting their action together plus the drought and I should have been smarter.

It's all good, Tim. We all miss the pattern every now and again. You've been all over the cooler look in the extended and I've been playing my normal conservative route. I'm still waiting another week before committing just to make sure things are going you're expecting. One thing is for certain... below normal precip IMO is a lock thru the 1st half of the month, maybe even a bit longer.

77 at CVG today, same thing for here. Look for the upper 70s tomorrow, perhaps 80 for Fri and Sat and in the low 80s Sun ahead of that next front. Then we are back to normal fall temps for the first half of next week. Can't rule out a shower or t-storm Sun afternoon and evening but the chances are dwindling.

Good morning all! Look for a few spots of fog this morning (low lying areas / River Valleys) otherwise another nice day is on tap. No changes to the forecast although we could reach the mid 80s on Sunday now ahead of that front. Winds could gust 20-30 mph as well with that frontal system. Still expecting a small rain chance in the afternoon and evening as well. Next week still looks dry and seasonal with highs 65 to 70 for the region and lows in the 40s.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 4:31 am Good morning all! Look for a few spots of fog this morning (low lying areas / River Valleys) otherwise another nice day is on tap. No changes to the forecast although we could reach the mid 80s on Sunday now ahead of that front. Winds could gust 20-30 mph as well with that frontal system. Still expecting a small rain chance in the afternoon and evening as well. Next week still looks dry and seasonal with highs 65 to 70 for the region and lows in the 40s.

80,80 and Mid 80s again, for a few days. Some models a week or so ago forecasted a cool down for this period. We should, finally see an extended period of seasonal temps as you mentioned through mid month

Good Morning Les and great forecast. Sunday like you mentioned looks like the warmest day and with a strong wind from the south temps can climb and when you are just south of that front most of the day that is the quick rise. What can slow the climb is cloud cover and many times its not until that day you can get a better handle on the situation.

Next week looks wonderful and no doubt heading into the lovely fall weather we can get around here and will many nights of clear sky the colors of fall should really start ramping up. Not sure exactly how nice it will be with the short term drought but still will have nice colors to see especially with the recent rains

Then the extended and really what it comes down too is the change of seasons where in the south summer wants to keep going on and on while in the north they are trying to evict summer so it can move in. Models almost always have problems when we change seasons and expect some back and forth over the next week with summer winning some of the battles and winter some as well. Do we become more active after next week and that is a tough question because the ridge to the west of us will put a stop sign on any system coming in from the pacific and the GOM may also be limited on its influence so then you rely on cold fronts from Canada but without much moisture to work with we may see the cool down but with not much in the way of rainfall.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 5:39 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 4:31 am Good morning all! Look for a few spots of fog this morning (low lying areas / River Valleys) otherwise another nice day is on tap. No changes to the forecast although we could reach the mid 80s on Sunday now ahead of that front. Winds could gust 20-30 mph as well with that frontal system. Still expecting a small rain chance in the afternoon and evening as well. Next week still looks dry and seasonal with highs 65 to 70 for the region and lows in the 40s.

Mid 80s again, some models a week or so ago forecasted a cool down for this period. We should, finally see an extended period of seasonal temps as you mentioned through mid month

I'm still not totally convinced on that big cool down for near or just after mid month. The GFS has been touting that but has since backed off on the overnight 0Z run. The foreign models are just starting to get into that time period now. Not seeing it on the Ensembles. Too much GOA / Bering Sea low action and if anything after mid month, the ensembles show a big ridge taking over most of the country again. Definitely looking like a slam dunk for below avg precip so the drought isn't going away anytime soon. If anything, it may get worse again should the dryness persist the entire month. I am still hopeful the last 10 days of the, month we see changes, but it's too early at this distance to know.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 5:43 am Good Morning Les and great forecast. Sunday like you mentioned looks like the warmest day and with a strong wind from the south temps can climb and when you are just south of that front most of the day that is the quick rise. What can slow the climb is cloud cover and many times its not until that day you can get a better handle on the situation.

Next week looks wonderful and no doubt heading into the lovely fall weather we can get around here and will many nights of clear sky the colors of fall should really start ramping up. Not sure exactly how nice it will be with the short term drought but still will have nice colors to see especially with the recent rains

Then the extended and really what it comes down too is the change of seasons where in the south summer wants to keep going on and on while in the north they are trying to evict summer so it can move in. Models almost always have problems when we change seasons and expect some back and forth over the next week with summer winning some of the battles and winter some as well. Do we become more active after next week and that is a tough question because the ridge to the west of us will put a stop sign on any system coming in from the pacific and the GOM may also be limited on its influence so then you rely on cold fronts from Canada but without much moisture to work with we may see the cool down but with not much in the way of rainfall.

I believe spring and fall are called "shoulder seasons" for that very reason that you mentioned, Tim. The back and forth of the models and the up's and downs that we get with temps. It does cause model problems for sure just like the tropics can when they are active.

Starting to see some frost and even freeze warnings in the northern plains and upper mid-west. My guess this is rather close the normal period for this to happen. Will probably see some next in the northeast as well though they are usually a tad later for the first frost/freeze. Do we get in on that action say next weekend and the following week and I still believe the cold will make an appearance but is it enough to promote frost.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 5:57 am Starting to see some frost and even freeze warnings in the northern plains and upper mid-west. My guess this is rather close the normal period for this to happen. Will probably see some next in the northeast as well though they are usually a tad later for the first frost/freeze. Do we get in on that action say next weekend and the following week and I still believe the cold will make an appearance but is it enough to promote frost.

I just don’t see it atm during this time period. Our upper air influence will still be coming from the edge of the big high to our west. The trough to our east for the moment will be to far NE to see a more pronounced influence from its flow of the colder air. A 39, a 40 , possible. The colder air will struggle to move westward into our region, similar to a CAD situation

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 6:11 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 5:57 am Starting to see some frost and even freeze warnings in the northern plains and upper mid-west. My guess this is rather close the normal period for this to happen. Will probably see some next in the northeast as well though they are usually a tad later for the first frost/freeze. Do we get in on that action say next weekend and the following week and I still believe the cold will make an appearance but is it enough to promote frost.

I just don’t see it atm during this time period. Our upper air influence will still be coming from the edge of the big high to our west. The trough to our east for the moment will be to far NE to see a more pronounced influence from its flow of the colder air. A 39, a 40 , possible. The colder air will struggle to move westward into our region, similar to a CAD situation

Just to add... Since the GFS has backed off (although it could come back on the 6Z run, who knows it's the GFS... ) But when the Ensembles aren't showing it, that is a pause for concern.

Great Posts guys and my main reason for the colder outlook than say the models is I believe the ridge out west take up residency further west next week and extend north in western Canada and eastern Alaska. If this happens then a decent trough will be in the eastern USA. Will this trough only take up the eastern 1/4 or will be more like the eastern 1/3 and I am going with the latter. As we know Mother Nature is always busy and she gets very little time off so my guess is next week she once again try and put the pieces together once again to balance out the earth. Wonder what she gets paid since she never has a day off.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 6:48 am Great Posts guys and my main reason for the colder outlook than say the models is I believe the ridge out west take up residency further west next week and extend north in western Canada and eastern Alaska. If this happens then a decent trough will be in the eastern USA. Will this trough only take up the eastern 1/4 or will be more like the eastern 1/3 and I am going with the latter. As we know Mother Nature is always busy and she gets very little time off so my guess is next week she once again try and put the pieces together once again to balance out the earth. Wonder what she gets paid since she never has a day off.

Tim... not only will that be key (the ridge retrograding further West) but also it needs to poke up into Eastern AK / Western Canada regions also for a true -EPO. The ridge is only going to retrograde to the west so far, because there continues to be major troughing over the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska areas. That is the thorn in our side and the upstream cause of the warm / dry pattern we have been in. Although next week, still dry, but more October like temps will be the result for the week. Then, do we get the cold shot mid month or another warming trend? Odds are a warming trend due to the Bering Sea / GOA low pattern we are stuck in. Better to get it out of the way now then come December. It's going to be a long and frustrating winter should that pattern persist. Let's hope it does not.

NWS offices in Alaska have high wind warnings up due to a very intense storm ongoing right now in the Bering Sea. 30-40 foot seas are being reported... Wow!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 6:54 am NWS offices in Alaska have high wind warnings up due to a very intense storm ongoing right now in the Bering Sea. 30-40 foot seas are being reported... Wow!

Very stormy up there but this is normal for them in October and we tend to get the stormier weather in November. Les maybe this is a storm that helps change the pattern as well. I agree the low up there is better today than say in 2 months because then we would be in early December with temps in the low-mid 50's and nights in the mid 30's which is not good for snow lovers lol.

Siberia starting to get some snow cover going now... images as of 10/3.


https://usicecenter.gov/current/ims2024277_alaska.gif

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 7:10 am Siberia starting to get some snow cover going now... images as of 10/3.


https://usicecenter.gov/current/ims2024277_alaska.gif

Les you such the tease lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 7:15 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 7:10 am Siberia starting to get some snow cover going now... images as of 10/3.


https://usicecenter.gov/current/ims2024277_alaska.gif

Les you such the tease lol

Thanks Tim! I try my best! Got to liven the place up in this boring pattern.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 6:52 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 6:48 am Great Posts guys and my main reason for the colder outlook than say the models is I believe the ridge out west take up residency further west next week and extend north in western Canada and eastern Alaska. If this happens then a decent trough will be in the eastern USA. Will this trough only take up the eastern 1/4 or will be more like the eastern 1/3 and I am going with the latter. As we know Mother Nature is always busy and she gets very little time off so my guess is next week she once again try and put the pieces together once again to balance out the earth. Wonder what she gets paid since she never has a day off.

Tim... not only will that be key (the ridge retrograding further West) but also it needs to poke up into Eastern AK / Western Canada regions also for a true -EPO. The ridge is only going to retrograde to the west so far, because there continues to be major troughing over the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska areas. That is the thorn in our side and the upstream cause of the warm / dry pattern we have been in. Although next week, still dry, but more October like temps will be the result for the week. Then, do we get the cold shot mid month or another warming trend? Odds are a warming trend due to the Bering Sea / GOA low pattern we are stuck in. Better to get it out of the way now then come December. It's going to be a long and frustrating winter should that pattern persist. Let's hope it does not.

Throw in the nonexistent/displacement of the SE ridge that’s been a part of the pattern of all the above. It really has been quite a long persistent pattern

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 8:02 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 6:52 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 04, 2024 6:48 am Great Posts guys and my main reason for the colder outlook than say the models is I believe the ridge out west take up residency further west next week and extend north in western Canada and eastern Alaska. If this happens then a decent trough will be in the eastern USA. Will this trough only take up the eastern 1/4 or will be more like the eastern 1/3 and I am going with the latter. As we know Mother Nature is always busy and she gets very little time off so my guess is next week she once again try and put the pieces together once again to balance out the earth. Wonder what she gets paid since she never has a day off.

Tim... not only will that be key (the ridge retrograding further West) but also it needs to poke up into Eastern AK / Western Canada regions also for a true -EPO. The ridge is only going to retrograde to the west so far, because there continues to be major troughing over the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska areas. That is the thorn in our side and the upstream cause of the warm / dry pattern we have been in. Although next week, still dry, but more October like temps will be the result for the week. Then, do we get the cold shot mid month or another warming trend? Odds are a warming trend due to the Bering Sea / GOA low pattern we are stuck in. Better to get it out of the way now then come December. It's going to be a long and frustrating winter should that pattern persist. Let's hope it does not.

Throw in the nonexistent/displacement of the SE ridge that’s been a part of the pattern of all the above. It really has been quite a long persistent pattern

No doubt! Just hope it ends by Thanksgiving and then all would be good lol

There you go! The above maps tell the story. At least we are in October so the heat won't be bad like it was in Sept.

Great Map Bgoney and tells a huge story. This is the average that the model sees happening over the next 15 days. Of course during those 15 days I expect to see the ridge out west to go further west and north into western Canada and eastern Alaska plus the lower heights over the northeast should also retrograde to the west if the ridge happens as I see it today. No doubt the northeast is going to be colder than normal and the northern and central plains above normal in terms of temps. So with very little cold air or really any systems coming into the west coast its going to be dry across much of the USA. This once again puts us in the middle which again is nothing new and yes I expect the first cooler shot early next week and then again the following weekend into the week of the 14th. How cold and again models can give you an outline but until things start to move into action we are just trying to give the best long term forecast as possible.

Les how many times have we looked at the same info and come up with a different forecast and how many times we tend to end up somewhere in the middle of both forecasts. Better when we are on the same page but when we differ are best solution is somewhere we meet in the middle.