Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 7:24 am The region has had 3 straight year of summer/fall drought. I don’t think those being affected atm are thinking about next year

If we have a cold and dry winter that won't be very good either. We either need the rains to return or get a boat load of snow. One thing that we know with high confidence is that the drought isn't going to end anytime soon. It is concerning that the tropics are dead quiet too when they should be on fire this time of year.

CVG reached 88 and both DAY / CMH 87 yesterday.

Not a shock at all, but here are the updated drought maps for the Midwest / OV, Ohio, and OH stats.

Saw some large mature red and silver maples and poplar , here on the east side, with all the leaves were brown. Evergreens are taking another big hit also.

I'd be reseeding a good chunk of he lawn come next Spring at the rate things are going. Not good on all fronts...

Already 87 here on the east side

85 at CVG when I last checked.

SPC has us in a marginal risk for severe wx tomorrow afternoon for wind and hail.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

We'll see I guess. I still think the coverage will be scattered but if enough heating is realized then isolated down bursts would be possible.

6 Hour Max temp at CVG is 88. Down to 86 as of the 2pm reading.

90 here today, CVG hit 91.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 5:12 pm 90 here today, CVG hit 91.

91 , surprise!!!

Brian Baldridge, director of the Ohio Department of Agriculture, called the drought in Ohio historic and said the worst of it has been in the southeastern and southern parts of the state.

The biggest concern at the moment is with livestock farmers, Baldridge said. They have had to haul in water for their animals because creeks, ponds and springs they normally use have dried up. Also, the farmers have had to feed their animals hay normally reserved for winter because pastures have stopped growing.
Baldridge said more will be known about the impact on corn and soybean yields when those crops start to be harvested in the next few weeks.

While some areas don’t look as bad, Baldridge said he’s seen some cornfields “that are just really devastated.”

Last week, only portions of Athens and Meigs counties in southeast Ohio were considered in exceptional drought by the U.S. Drought Monitor, marking the first time that level of drought had been recorded in the state since 2000 when the drought monitor began keeping records.

The other 15 counties with portions of their territory reported this week in exceptional drought are Hocking, Perry, Morgan, Muskingum, Noble, Monroe, Belmont, Guernsey, Tuscarawas, Harrison, Ross, Fayette, Pickaway, Fairfield and Madison.

Hopefully by this time next year we have a 180 in terms of rainfall. I know my son had the drought last year and was able to get out of the drought very quickly this year even without the normal amount of snow this past winter. Snow melt counts so much up there in terms of filling up ponds and creeks and when the snowfall was well below normal it looked like it could take a couple of years but this spring and summer has done wonders and of course Mother Nature must balance it out elsewhere and that has no doubt been the Ohio Valley this spring and summer

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 5:53 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 5:12 pm 90 here today, CVG hit 91.

91 , surprise!!!

I'm not surprised anymore lol Lots more of that to come.

CVG got to 91, DAY 90 and CMH 89'ed today.

Good morning and good luck to all with regards to rain chances this afternoon and evening. An isolated severe storm with strong winds is also possible. Still going with 50 / 50 coverage as a broken line of storms moves in with the front. Then we cool down this weekend and warm up next week with dry conditions the next 7-10 days. Overall a boring weather pattern continues along with an intensifying drought.

Yep, enjoy the weekend temps , because the well advertised stretch of above normal temps returns. Temps At the very least in the mid to upper 80s

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 6:26 am Yep, enjoy the weekend temps , because the well advertised stretch of above normal temps returns. Temps At the very least in the mid to upper 80s

I'm going with U80s to L90s. Look at yesterday, 91 lol I definitely think one or two 90 degree days are still on the table for the second half of next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 6:51 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 6:26 am Yep, enjoy the weekend temps , because the well advertised stretch of above normal temps returns. Temps At the very least in the mid to upper 80s

I'm going with U80s to L90s. Look at yesterday, 91 lol I definitely think one or two 90 degree days are still on the table for the second half of next week.

No doubt with the drought temps will continue to bounce back and that is where I believe my error was in the September forecast. Sure by Monday we will still be near normal for the month but next week looks mighty warm and as normal temps go down we will have no problem in above normal temps. What has caught my eye this summer and early fall season is how the west continues to be very warm and normally when this happens the central and eastern part of the country is cool. Yes we have had some nice cool shots this summer but the dryness locally is keeping us warmer into September once again. Climate change and we all agree that the climate is changing but what causes the change is a big debate. Over the past 10-20 years the one thing that I have noticed is the fall season takes hold later than years past but also the spring is pushed back as well. What has caused this and no ideal but the axis of the earth imo must be part of the equation.

Have you guys noticed the EU-AI has been showing for quite some time now , that moisture/low in SE Texas makes it into parts of the OV. Didn’t mention it because nothing else was showing that….. until now. GFS/EU showing a more northward progression (instead of eastward) with some moisture. Not going to get hopes up for any big soaking, but at least something showing up for some areas

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 7:51 am Have you guys noticed the EU-AI has been showing for quite some time now , that moisture/low in SE Texas makes it into parts of the OV. Didn’t mention it because nothing else was showing that….. until now. GFS/EU showing a more northward progression (instead of eastward) with some moisture. Not going to get hopes up for any big soaking, but at least something showing up for some areas

Thanks for the update on that. I haven't checked the Euro AI in a while. I remember when it came out last winter, it had an extreme cold bias and was never correct so I stopped looking at it.

https://www.whio.com/news/local/drought ... AQ3NIR544/

As Bidenflation hasn't been / isn't bad enough and no thanx to Ma Nature which also looks to impact groceries.

Les and I both predicted 2 days for Sept for possible 90 readings in the contest. Those who predicted 3, 4, or even 5 for the month could be the chicken dinner winners.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 8:03 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 7:51 am Have you guys noticed the EU-AI has been showing for quite some time now , that moisture/low in SE Texas makes it into parts of the OV. Didn’t mention it because nothing else was showing that….. until now. GFS/EU showing a more northward progression (instead of eastward) with some moisture. Not going to get hopes up for any big soaking, but at least something showing up for some areas

Thanks for the update on that. I haven't checked the Euro AI in a while. I remember when it came out last winter, it had an extreme cold bias and was never correct so I stopped looking at it.

Yea, same here but glance at every once in awhile to try and get feel for what it’s good and bad for.

No wonder areas like northeast Ohio e.g. are in the clear on the drought map.