Absolute Vorticity

The leftover boundary from the complex that died in Illinois from early this morning is near Indianapolis and moving east SE. I suspect this is what the Hrrr is counting on to trigger a better scattered storm chance than some other models

Good afternoon all! Thanks Tim for updating our contest thread today. Been out shopping for the party all morning and am finally done with my chores for today. Time to talk weather! 90 here and at CVG currently with a heat index of 99. It's pretty nasty outside despite a gust of wind every once and a while.

12Z GFS doesn't look impressive to me at all for the next few days. The 12Z Euro looks the best for the I-70 Crew tomorrow afternoon and none of the days particularly look very impressive to me at all for our area. It looks to be hit or miss. Sure hope we can get a hit around here. We have not had a soaking rainfall IMBY / CVG since mid May and it shows! Yards are crispy and brown around here minus those who spend 200 bucks a month and keep their lawns watered.

Right now, a few scattered showers / t-showers currently exist along and north of I-70. The coverage even there is pretty lame. SPC has an MD out for a possible watch (40% chance) to be issued for the region later on.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1519.html

Visible satellite shows a nice CU field north and NW of the Tri-state. CAPE isn't an issue but the lapse rates aren't all that great and we have very little shear so thus the storm coverage should be on the scattered side. Pulse storms IMO where they will grow, pulse up, and then weaken and rain themselves out. I'm just not seeing what the SPC and some of the media is seeing with regards to heavy rain, severe wx etc etc. Sure in isolated to scattered fashion but I'm not seeing it being widespread at this particular time.

The boys had this to say as of about 15 mins ago so we'll see I guess:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The previously discussed MCS across southern Illinois is notably
weakening at the time of this writing, with its outflow boundary
surging out ahead of it, evident via satellite imagery. Timing
for this afternoon`s CI still looks to be between 2-5 PM in this
relatively weakly sheared, moderate CAPE environment. Recent
ACARS depicts very skinny CAPE at CMH and CVG, but this is
forecast to get /slightly/ more robust as the day continues on.
Forecast soundings also indicate that some heavy rain producers
may move through later today. Any storms that train over the
same area may produce localized flooding or a quick burst of
flash flooding.

NEW thoughts from the boys to cover now thru Friday:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Wednesday daytime storms that fired off ahead of the cold front will
still be moving through the area at the start of the near term
period, likely somewhere along the Ohio River. Given continued
weak shear, storm mode will likely be multicellular in nature
and driven largely by local/cold pool thermodynamics. A
saturated troposphere with high PWATS (170-200% of normal),
skinny CAPE, and the relatively straight hodos indicate that the
main storm threat will likely be strong winds associated with
precip loading. In addition, any area where storms train will
likely see some quick ponding/ localized flooding.

We quickly lose instability after sunset, so storms will likely
die down in intensity before midnight, though, some showers may
linger during the overnight hours, particularly along the Ohio
River area.

Winds decrease during the overnight and thanks to the
afternoon/evening rain, we may have some patchy early morning fog
formation, particularly in rural areas. For now, did not add
into the grids. Overnight lows fall to the low/mid 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast for the Fourth of July holiday is a tricky one,
given the weakly forced but very moist environment. Looking
aloft, as the shortwave that prompted Wednesday`s cold front
moves away from the region, and the associated cold front will
stall out and drape across our CWA. Given that we continue to
remain in a very moist airmass and that modest instability
builds back into the region, would expect at least some
convection during the day Thursday, however, confidence on
timing remains very low.

A handful of CAMs suggest early morning rounds of storms moving
from west to east, training along areas near the Ohio river with
a brief afternoon lull before a stronger afternoon line/MCS
moves through. Other guidance suggests a quieter morning with
scattered showers before a late afternoon MCS moves into the
region. Depending on timing of the late afternoon MCS (should it
occur), this may inhibit additional rounds of evening storms.

Either way, the signal is there for one or more repeated rounds
of showers/storms through our forecast area during the holiday.
Obviously, outside of any severe threat, lightning always poses
a threat, particularly when you have large numbers of people
gathered outside. As you celebrate the Fourth, plan to have
multiple ways to receive weather alerts, especially if you plan
to be out at events!

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
One last wave of showers and thunderstorms will move through on
Friday. At this point, this looks fairly disjointed with activity
moving through during the day ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Cannot
rule out some additional showers and thunderstorms as a cold front
moves through late in the day into the early evening.

Activity is increasing on radar but still scattered in nature at this time.

Here near Somerville, it is absolutely pouring. Monsoon rains are falling

It's trying to fill in a little more here guys. PRAYING we can get something down here in NKY.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 2:21 pm Good afternoon all! Thanks Tim for updating our contest thread today. Been out shopping for the party all morning and am finally done with my chores for today. Time to talk weather! 90 here and at CVG currently with a heat index of 99. It's pretty nasty outside despite a gust of wind every once and a while.

12Z GFS doesn't look impressive to me at all for the next few days. The 12Z Euro looks the best for the I-70 Crew tomorrow afternoon and none of the days particularly look very impressive to me at all for our area. It looks to be hit or miss. Sure hope we can get a hit around here. We have not had a soaking rainfall IMBY / CVG since mid May and it shows! Yards are crispy and brown around here minus those who spend 200 bucks a month and keep their lawns watered.

Right now, a few scattered showers / t-showers currently exist along and north of I-70. The coverage even there is pretty lame. SPC has an MD out for a possible watch (40% chance) to be issued for the region later on.

I'm just wondering if Beryl could be robbing us a little of the moisture?

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 4:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 2:21 pm Good afternoon all! Thanks Tim for updating our contest thread today. Been out shopping for the party all morning and am finally done with my chores for today. Time to talk weather! 90 here and at CVG currently with a heat index of 99. It's pretty nasty outside despite a gust of wind every once and a while.

12Z GFS doesn't look impressive to me at all for the next few days. The 12Z Euro looks the best for the I-70 Crew tomorrow afternoon and none of the days particularly look very impressive to me at all for our area. It looks to be hit or miss. Sure hope we can get a hit around here. We have not had a soaking rainfall IMBY / CVG since mid May and it shows! Yards are crispy and brown around here minus those who spend 200 bucks a month and keep their lawns watered.

Right now, a few scattered showers / t-showers currently exist along and north of I-70. The coverage even there is pretty lame. SPC has an MD out for a possible watch (40% chance) to be issued for the region later on.

I'm just wondering if Beryl could be robbing us a little of the moisture?

I don't think so. That would be more for next week. This never did look like an MCS type of set up. However, the incoming front will stall somewhere in our CWA for tomorrow then lift back north as a warm front again then a strong cold front for Fri. That is our set up for the next few days. Where that front stalls, will be where the best action is.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 3:04 pm

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
One last wave of showers and thunderstorms will move through on
Friday. At this point, this looks fairly disjointed with activity
moving through during the day ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Cannot
rule out some additional showers and thunderstorms as a cold front
moves through late in the day into the early evening.

So this is difficult to decipher, sounds like Friday might not be terrible, just possibly some off and on rain?

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 5:03 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 3:04 pm

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
One last wave of showers and thunderstorms will move through on
Friday. At this point, this looks fairly disjointed with activity
moving through during the day ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Cannot
rule out some additional showers and thunderstorms as a cold front
moves through late in the day into the early evening.

So this is difficult to decipher, sounds like Friday might not be terrible, just possibly some off and on rain?

I think that if we get convection with the pre frontal trough say midday to early afternoon, then it would certainly stabilize the atmosphere more ahead of the cold front. If we remain dry then chances of course would go up.

Nice line coming into the area guys... maybe even my hood could get something for once. Fingers and toes crossed!

Yes please

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CVG got to 93, DAY 91 and CMH 94 today.

Rain just started here... thank GOD! That big cell should come right over me! Expecting 1" plus with that cell. Awesome!!! This will be the biggest rain for my hood since mid May lol

Les I will be on the southern end of the cell but hopefully it expands a little more south

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner :rafting

Light rain still falling here but it will be wrapping up shortly. Awesome rainfall with that big cell and very much needed. Totals so far:

CVG - 0.69"
Me - 0.52"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.13"

Big time rain here, already a 1/2 an inch of rain in only 15 minutes.

Easily gonna hit an inch in a half hour

Wow
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/0abhc7uv ... &dl=0 [url

2104 UNK 1 ESE Ireland Dubois IN 3841 8698 Trees and powerlines came down. (LMK)

0000 UNK Francisco Gibson IN 3833 8745 Tree down on power line on South 2nd Street. (PAH)

Good morning all and a quick post due to rain chances later on today. I have to get busy smoking those two pork butts! Anyway, radar shows a nice area of rain in the St. Louis area headed eastbound our way for early afternoon. After it passes, we should have dry time for some fireworks tonight. I will post more later after I get this meat prepped and smoking.

Good Morning and glad to see some nice rain totals though I only got 0.22. Today brings another chance of storms to the area starting this afternoon. Again some folks in the Ohio Valley have done well with even some flood advisories posted. Love to see a more widespread outbreak and there is a good looking MCS over the Missouri Valley this morning heading east/northeast. This MCS even has a low that has formed which helps keep this going much of the day. Will watch the advancement of this today. Friday brings the cold front through with another chance of some rain and then a beautiful weekend

BTW HAPPY 4TH OF JULY. The best country in the world and one where we still have freedoms though we must fight hard everyday to keep these freedoms.

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