Absolute Vorticity

No doubt you can feel the difference outside since this morning. Getting muggier out there but the temps are not bad so it feels quite nice at the moment

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 1:19 pm Stationary front is right along river. Once it passes the river , shouldn’t take but a couple hours to get cape in NKY in the 1000 range

I agree... it's close too! As of 1pm, CVG had SE winds, LUK had S winds and HAO had E winds.

The one thing afternoon models have done is push the heaviest rainfall amounts further to the northwest. This makes sense because the low is predicted to go further north and west. So still going 1-2 locally and some areas can get into the 2-3 if everything times out perfect and sure a few isolated sports could exceed 4 inches but that should not be the norm.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 1:30 pm The one thing afternoon models have done is push the heaviest rainfall amounts further to the northwest. This makes sense because the low is predicted to go further north and west. So still going 1-2 locally and some areas can get into the 2-3 if everything times out perfect and sure a few isolated sports could exceed 4 inches but that should not be the norm.

We will need to keep an eye on that boundary to see where the action sets up shop. With it being right in our area attm, odds should favor us getting some heavier rainfall along and just north of the boundary. Those are my thoughts anyway subject to change as Mother Nature does lol

Starting to those pesky singular cells forming over Illinois and with the increase in moisture this will end up being a bigger complex later this afternoon and evening. So far everything is falling into place

MD issued over MO and ILL for a 60% chance of a watch to be issued.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0319.html


That will tell us how tomorrow morning and eventually how tomorrow afternoon and evening will shape up. Speaking of which, the SPC is like 20 mins late updating the outlook for tomorrow. Curious to see if they shift the enhanced risk area further north or not.

Currently 54 here in G'ville and progged for 58.

Prayers with the OV and other regions today and Tues and that the Lord can lessen the ingredients / parameters.

One of the tornadoes 2 weeks ago miraculously missed my cousin and his wife's house in rural Greenville. It touched down in and near Bradford, OH in eastern Darke Co.

I really miss the big basement that my folks and I had when we resided in north G'ville. Where we are now in a catalpa-style house the best places for a tornado shelter are a walk-in closet off the master bedroom and our laundry room area between the kitchen and garage.

Tomorrow the high for up this way is progged for around 67 degrees.

69 with a dew of 61 at CVG. Winds are now due southerly so the warm front has passed CVG at this time. CAPE is already moving in. 1000-1500 J/KG won't take very long to move into NKY either. We'll need to see if any discrete cells can track along the boundary early on this evening for hail and tornado issues. Otherwise, it'll be a wind and heavy rain maker tonight as the activity develops or congeals into an MCS. We will see that action early tomorrow morning in that 3-6am window. Then, once we get that out of the way, we'll be able to monitor sky cover and eventually CAPE for the approaching low / cold front tomorrow afternoon and evening. This is kind of how the thought process for me goes over the next 24 to 30 hours.

78 IMBY. Humidity is 78 as well.

Some cousins of mine and their families in O'Fallon, MO (near St. Louis) and others in Mt. Vernon, Owensville, Poseyville, and Princeton near Evansville are in the Enhanced risk.

Currently its 76 in St. Louis and 77 in Evansville.

Update for Tuesday





Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
Widespread thunderstorms – including some degree of all-hazards severe risk – will likely be spreading rapidly eastward across the Ohio Valley area at the start of the period. This convection should reach the central Appalachians by late morning/midday, but – though potentially having some impact on destabilization potential across the MDT and ENH risk areas – should largely shift far enough east to allow warm-sector destabilization to commence.

As the surface low deepens and crosses Illinois and eventually moves into Indiana, and the cold front advances across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, storm redevelopment is expected to occur during the afternoon. While evolution/storm mode remains somewhat difficult to discern – in part due to earlier storms – some mix of cellular and cluster/linear mode is expected to evolve. Given the ample destabilization expected in combination with very strong/veering deep-layer flow, all-hazards severe potential is evident, including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and several significant tornadoes.

The greatest risk, which will include potential for a couple of intense/long-track tornadoes, should begin across Indiana, and the spread across Ohio through the afternoon and evening, potentially reaching as far east as western portions of West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania into the evening. Eastward advance of the risk into central Pennsylvania will likely remain limited, but otherwise threat may spread into western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas late.

On the baseball front, looks like the Reds / Phillies in Philly have a chance of getting their 6:40 in tonight but the Tues evening and Wed afternoon ones will more than likely be make-ups.

Tonight

Rain likely, mainly after 4am. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 46. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday

Periods of rain. High near 49. East wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night

Periods of rain. Low around 44. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday

Periods of rain. High near 48. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night

Periods of rain, mainly before 2am. Low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

My stomach is getting queasy re Tues. I just told my folks about the upgraded Moderate risk.

Wow! Moderate risk and 15% hatched tornado risk tomorrow afternoon!

Streams and creeks are already very high in the northern Miami Valley. It will not take much rain at all to see flood warnings.

Storms already near Bloomington,In and heading dead east. You can see the quick build of clouds locally

The storm I mentioned near Bloomington as gone severe with quarter size hail and 60 mph gusts. This is the first of many over the next 30 hours or so.

Looks like a storm pop up in western Boone County and we will see how that develops. I can tell you here in Independence that clouds are lowering fast.

I am seeing some light rain here now. Got home just in time lol

EDIT: Make that heavy rain now.

Flash flooding risk increasing for tonight.

40 % chance of a watch issuance for counties bordering river and southwards per SPC

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:18 pm Flash flooding risk increasing for tonight.

I had one cell move thru here and another developed and may move in shortly. Could be some training starting up if this continues.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:35 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Apr 01, 2024 4:18 pm Flash flooding risk increasing for tonight.

I had one cell move thru here and another developed and may move in shortly. Could be some training starting up if this continues.

I am just a tad to far south Les. Can see the darker clouds just to my north. Training is one way to get the higher totals but the difference in totals just several miles away can be big. Probably better to have a 1-4 inch range though folks who get the training for several hours will be at the higher end of course.

T-storm #2 in progress and this one is a noisy little rascal! Booming thunder with it.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Ohio County in southeastern Indiana...
Kenton County in northern Kentucky...
Southern Campbell County in northern Kentucky...
Central Boone County in northern Kentucky...

* Until 530 PM EDT.

* At 440 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Burlington,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Covington, Florence, Independence, Erlanger, Edgewood, Alexandria,
Elsmere, Fort Mitchell, Villa Hills, Highland Heights, Taylor Mill,
Fort Wright, Crescent Springs, Walton, Crestview Hills, Lakeside
Park, Rising Sun, Oakbrook, Burlington, and Claryville.