Absolute Vorticity

Euro at 144

Oh wow... Thanks Jamie for posting that. it's definitely the more suppressed look then. Note the OV classic snow hole too! Someone should save that image and put it as their computer wallpaper background.

The 00z Euro and today's 12z.

I have no idea if the Euro will be right or wrong but it has definitely lost it's King status that it had years ago. This model bounces around with various solutions a lot more then it used too.

Ok... so I think I know why the euro is showing what it is showing. Initially, it was looking good but the precip dries up as the system heads our way. this is because the Euro is holding some energy back over Colorado. The run would have been just fine had that not been the case.

Euro looks great it shows the dome lol

Yep... so that's what happened on the Euro. The storm develops too late for us so we get some light snow early Tues as the EC storm blows up. If we can get all of the energy out in one chunk, this will be a nice storm for us! If any of it does get held back then it won't be all that great. So IMO that is something we need to keep an eye on.

18z gfs is a swing and a miss. That is a shame. See what happens though!!

mikeyp wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 5:11 pm 18z gfs is a swing and a miss. That is a shame. See what happens though!!

It is weaker and suppressed yes... I think it's doing what the Euro did. It held some energy back. With the Fri / Sat system still to come, it is tough to really know what will happen with this particular system. The bottom line though is that we will be very cold. Any snow we do get will stick. It won't take a lot of QPF to cause problems on the roads. Remember, we are getting colder on Sat and will be below freezing. Same with Sunday. The ground will be frozen so every flake will stick.

EDIT: Snow to liquid ratios will be very high. 20:1 easy IMO. So even if we only see 0.10" if liquid, that could easily be 2" of snow for example. If we get lucky and see 0.25" then you're looking at warning criteria snows.

EPS has been very consistent with this system from the start, only showing around .10” to .20” max for our tri- cities area. Does the southern trend continue? Looking a little shaky for the i70 crew atm. Few more model runs should solve things

My son was saying how there will be a storm. I said "I'll believe it when I see it".

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:54 pmEuro at 144

Love the map and this is total bs like DT talks about all the time. Busy this evening but will be back in the morning to see if this map is still alive.

Either too warm to snow here or too cold!

I am not worried at all yet, we have plenty of time for change. Till today we were still looking at where the low pressure was going to go on the next storm.

I'm kind of in a wait and see mode also. If it gets suppressed so be it. It's not like we have not seen this movie before. I think we should have some resolution though by Friday's 12Z runs.

For what it's worth. And I'm not sure it's worth anything, but the UKMET is all in for this system. By far the strongest for AV land.

dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:13 am For what it's worth. And I'm not sure it's worth anything, but the UKMET is all in for this system. By far the strongest for AV land.

Lock it in!

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:39 am

dce wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:13 am For what it's worth. And I'm not sure it's worth anything, but the UKMET is all in for this system. By far the strongest for AV land.

Lock it in!

The Canadian wasn't bad either honestly. GFS has light accum and the Euro pretty much has bailed.

High res models continue to go nuts with wind late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Could we see a 60mph gust in the tri-state? It’s possible…

Dude... wrong thread!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:46 am Dude... wrong thread!

LOL it’s so busy I’m getting mixed up!!

Genuinely surprised that hasn’t already happened to me

Good Morning and a quiet day which is rare recently. Last night I saw that map from the Euro on snow totals and gave the old DT signature of BS. I looked over a few things over this morning and going with the double BS. Years ago Euro was the top dog in winter but that no doubt has changed. with the late weekend and early next week system its going back to holding to much energy back in the southwest. The jet is still moving even with the influx of arctic air moving in and like I mentioned several pieces of energy heading eastward. How much snow and placement is way to early plus we still have another big system to get through. Yes the models readjust after these big storms and the problem is we have so much energy that continues to head east models are having a hard time keeping up with pieces of energy that may grow into something bigger.

Sometimes models make changes and you just say well that makes sense and I understand why. This time not so much and lets see over the next 48 hours and see how things have changed. The problem is I know some folks have weather apps and they look at Sun-Tues and many show very little and that can be a problem when on Saturday the app changes and folks go where did that come from.

The euro may be correct and then you go back to the drawing board. Enough of the rant lol and I will be on some today but more this evening.

6Z GFS has a two part system and this has been a signal on other models as well. At CVG, we get 0.10" of QPF Sun night into Mon then the main piece late Mon night into Tues where an additional 0.24" of QPF occurs. This system should not be wrote off yet by any means.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 5:57 am 6Z GFS has a two part system and this has been a signal on other models as well. At CVG, we get 0.10" of QPF Sun night into Mon then the main piece late Mon night into Tues where an additional 0.24" of QPF occurs. This system should not be wrote off yet by any means.

Exactly Les and if those totals happen with the cold air we are talking about 4-6 inches. Not only that but 4-6 inches with this type of cold is different than 4-6 and temps near 30. You get that glaze of ice underneath and after awhile salt does not work because its too cold. Do those two pieces interact and they may and it could happen to the east of us and lets see Saturday afternoon models and compare them do yesterdays Euro.