Absolute Vorticity

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:17 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:34 am 977MB is pretty impressive on an Ensemble Mean. That is the avg from all of the GEFS members for La Bomba. Dang...

I can’t remember but didn’t I bring this up almost two weeks ago? Impressive modeling that far in advance!

I don't remember either Trev. You may have. With all of the different storms that we are tracking, my head is spinning!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:20 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:17 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:34 am 977MB is pretty impressive on an Ensemble Mean. That is the avg from all of the GEFS members for La Bomba. Dang...

I can’t remember but didn’t I bring this up almost two weeks ago? Impressive modeling that far in advance!

I don't remember either Trev. You may have. With all of the different storms that we are tracking, my head is spinning!

I looked in the January thread and on the 31st you posted a model map showing a 971 low around Chicago and commented on it.

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 6:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:20 pm

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:17 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:34 am 977MB is pretty impressive on an Ensemble Mean. That is the avg from all of the GEFS members for La Bomba. Dang...

I can’t remember but didn’t I bring this up almost two weeks ago? Impressive modeling that far in advance!

I don't remember either Trev. You may have. With all of the different storms that we are tracking, my head is spinning!

I looked in the January thread and on the 31st you posted a model map showing a 971 low around Chicago and commented on it.

Thanks Linn for looking that up!

37 here with heavy rain in progress. 0.70-0.80" already has fallen in my area.

Wind advisory is also out for the area from 7pm today until 12pm tomorrow.

I have already picked up 1.09" of rain from this system!

0.98" as of 6am at CVG.

We have a 992 MB Low over S MO this morning. Pressure falls indicate that the low will continue to deepen today as it heads NE towards S Lake Michigan and eventually into the Great Lakes.

First time in a long time we’ve seen a good moisture fetch out of the GOM makes its way into the OV

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:45 am First time in a long time we’ve seen a good moisture fetch out of the GOM makes its way into the OV




CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-08-11_26Z-20240109_map_noBar-100-1n-10-100.gif

Very nice! Between the rain with this system and the next one... the drought concerns should ease which is great news!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:55 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:45 am First time in a long time we’ve seen a good moisture fetch out of the GOM makes its way into the OV




CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-08-11_26Z-20240109_map_noBar-100-1n-10-100.gif

Very nice! Between the rain with this system and the next one... the drought concerns should ease which is great news!

These two cutters are just what the dr. ordered for the corn belt drought. No frozen grounds so all will get soaked up

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 7:01 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:55 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:45 am First time in a long time we’ve seen a good moisture fetch out of the GOM makes its way into the OV




CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-08-11_26Z-20240109_map_noBar-100-1n-10-100.gif

Very nice! Between the rain with this system and the next one... the drought concerns should ease which is great news!

These two cutters are just what the dr. ordered for the corn belt drought. No frozen grounds so all will get soaked up

Absolutely! Also hoping we can cash in early next week ahead of the arctic hammer to help product lawns, shrubs, and bushes, etc from the cold. We'll see on that... that is a work in progress.

1.15" now as of 9am at CVG.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:45 am First time in a long time we’ve seen a good moisture fetch out of the GOM makes its way into the OV




CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-08-11_26Z-20240109_map_noBar-100-1n-10-100.gif

That is true- any idea why we always seem to get moisture but warm weather but no moisture when it's cold enough? So many of us at work are looking longingly at this rain wishing it was snow. LOL!

However I know many places needed the soaking rain so- I'm happy for that.

MJSun wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:46 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:45 am First time in a long time we’ve seen a good moisture fetch out of the GOM makes its way into the OV




CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-08-11_26Z-20240109_map_noBar-100-1n-10-100.gif

That is true- any idea why we always seem to get moisture but warm weather but no moisture when it's cold enough? So many of us at work are looking longingly at this rain wishing it was snow. LOL!

However I know many places needed the soaking rain so- I'm happy for that.

My 2 cents MJ, is that due to our geographical location, warm air is forced west of the App. Mountains from the Gulf so we don't get the benefit of CAD (Cold air damming). We usually don't get the benefits of the Great Lakes for lake effect snow either. Where we are located, we have to have the right combination to come together for a major snow storm. This is why we don't get them too often. We either warm up too much and get rain or have to deal with multiple precip types. We have to rely on the correct storm track up the spine of the Apps which is so rare. Storms either go East or West of the mountains.

1.23" now at CVG as of 10am. 988 MB low continues to deepen over Central ILL headed towards the S. tip of Lake Michigan then into Lower Michigan and Ontario later on. Latest radar shows quite a bit more rain yet to go before the dry slot moves in later this afternoon and evening. Once we get on the backside, we should see rain showers change to snow showers with strong winds continuing into early Wednesday as temps fall to near freezing by morning and remain there throughout the day tomorrow. I am not not sold on much snow on the backside of this system. I think my original call was an inch or less and that still looks to be the case.

https://www.facebook.com/cincinnatiwx/

Video update on La Bomba and a brief look ahead. This was for my followers on my other site but you all already know about storm #2 and #3

1.43" at CVG as of 12pm.

Current temps and radar

Highest gust of wind of the day with this heavier band of showers moving through MBY

1.6" of rain now at CVG as of 4pm. Was a tough ride home with heavy rain and winds gusting in excess of 40 mph. Whew! Just glad I made it. Had to threw a bunch of timber out in the yard from the driveway before I could even back my car in. Pressure as of 4pm is down to 29.01" or 982 MB! We do not see pressures that low around here too often. It looks like we topped out around 50 as temps are now back down into the 40s. I've got 44 IMBY as of this post. The surface low is down to 980 MB now near Ft. Wayne, IN so the surface cold front will be passing thru our area here shortly. If you look at radar, you can see the upper low near Evansville, IN or thereabouts. A very significant storm for sure!

My weather station recorded 28.84 in Mt. Carmel/Eastgate about an hour ago. Love following weather systems, and the knowledge you guys share so kindly, but this crazy low pressure is kinda rough on the old body

pickles wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 5:21 pm My weather station recorded 28.84 in Mt. Carmel/Eastgate about an hour ago. Love following weather systems, and the knowledge you guys share so kindly, but this crazy low pressure is kinda rough on the old body

Hey there Pickles! Glad to finally see you post. Please post more often! We appreciate your observations! That goes for everyone, esp. if you have a home weather station. I was talking to my Dad earlier and the up's and downs are really hard on him too. For folks with aches and pains, the next week or two is going to be very tough!

1.71" at CVG as of 7pm. Peak wind gust of 39 mph.