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Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 8:53 am
by tpweather
Good Morning and a normal last day of December. No changes in my forecast from yesterday as the cold is coming. The biggest question I have is how much snow cover to the northwest can make somewhat of a difference in terms of how cold. Cold air is almost always bad for computer models. Cold air is deep and models almost always have a hard time. Believe also models will trend further east with the cold over time . Still believe the east coast will be the winner in terms of snow but we will have several chances with the STJ being active. Concerning individual storms I will start to look at those more this week.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:02 am
by Trevor
The storm next weekend is looking more and more interesting.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:11 am
by tpweather
Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:02 am
The storm next weekend is looking more and more interesting.
Trev, I feel good about the pattern change and will look at that possible storm today. Once models start getting the cold figured out then you see changes in storms and the problem many times is models go to the mean with systems more than 10 days. The cold in Alaska and eastern Siberia is on the move and the models finally catching on as western and central Canada will see that cold later this week. Also the NAO is heading towards negative and the models will see that more and more and the blocking will show up more and slow down systems.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:36 am
by tron777
Timing is everything in weather and with regards to next weekend's system... How long does the northern low take to die out and the southern low strengthen to take over? Also, due to the blocking, we may see the low die out and transfer its energy to an EC Low. A very complex set up for next weekend and model solutions will change a bunch as a result.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:41 am
by tpweather
Concerning this evening into early Jan 1 morning. No the storm is not big and not a lot of precip but once that temp gets to 32 or below a quick snow shower of my main concern is frz/drizzle. More people than normal out and about and that is why I thought is was wise to thrown out a message to folks.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:44 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:41 am
Concerning this evening into early Jan 1 morning. No the storm is not big and not a lot of precip but once that temp gets to 32 or below a quick snow shower of my main concern is frz/drizzle. More people than normal out and about and that is why I thought is was wise to thrown out a message to folks.
You can see the next system coming per radar... some light snow over SC Wisc from Madison into Chicagoland.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:18 am
by Trevor
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:36 am
Timing is everything in weather and with regards to next weekend's system... How long does the northern low take to die out and the southern low strengthen to take over? Also, due to the blocking, we may see the low die out and transfer its energy to an EC Low. A very complex set up for next weekend and model solutions will change a bunch as a result.
Yes timing is a big part of it. If that northern low stays stronger, more WAA and less snow down here.
As I posted on my page, the good news is that we are within seven days now and all models agree on there being a storm. So we have that as a good starting point.
Les: Facebook was acting up for me so I had to recreate my page. Personal page too. You'll have to send me a friend request if I didn't send you one already!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:22 am
by tron777
Nope. I have not seen anything from you. Trying to find you on FB but struggling to do so.
EDIT: Please send me a friend request. I cannot find your new account.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:57 am
by Trevor
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:22 am
Nope. I have not seen anything from you. Trying to find you on FB but struggling to do so.
EDIT: Please send me a friend request. I cannot find your new account.
I maxed out my friend requests for now so I will try later lol!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 11:00 am
by tron777
Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:57 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:22 am
Nope. I have not seen anything from you. Trying to find you on FB but struggling to do so.
EDIT: Please send me a friend request. I cannot find your new account.
I maxed out my friend requests for now so I will try later lol!
I think we have a better chance of getting a snow storm next weekend then you do of getting your $hit together!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 11:13 am
by Trevor
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 11:00 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:57 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:22 am
Nope. I have not seen anything from you. Trying to find you on FB but struggling to do so.
EDIT: Please send me a friend request. I cannot find your new account.
I maxed out my friend requests for now so I will try later lol!
I think we have a better chance of getting a snow storm next weekend then you do of getting your $hit together!
Facebook support sucks! My page was broken and they were less than helpful. Decided to just say F'it and start over.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 11:13 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 11:00 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:57 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:22 am
Nope. I have not seen anything from you. Trying to find you on FB but struggling to do so.
EDIT: Please send me a friend request. I cannot find your new account.
I maxed out my friend requests for now so I will try later lol!
I think we have a better chance of getting a snow storm next weekend then you do of getting your $hit together!
lol
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 11:49 am
by tron777
12Z GFS really cranks up the storm for next weekend a little too much. I'd love to see that solution about 100 miles or so further to the SE.
12Z Canadian is just a bit outside.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 11:56 am
by tron777
12Z GEFS is well SE of the Operational. Compare the OP GFS to the GEFS.
OP GFS.png
GEFS SLP.png
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:15 pm
by tpweather
Great Maps Les and this will be fun to figure out over the next few days. Besides that system I believe the GFS in the longer term is at least showing the new pattern. Storms after next weekend will change and no problem but the pattern change is the most important. We need to get that snow cover to the northwest and if we can get a decent storm that models are trying to show around the 9th that is fine and matter of fact I would love to see us have a rain event changing to snow during that period. Without the snow cover we still will get cold but once these highs build in and move to the east if you don't have snow cover temps can warm up quicker. The Euro which comes out later usually in this type of pattern will keep the energy back in the southwest but with the active STJ this season the Euro has done much better. Saying that with cold air entering the pattern will the Euro go back to old habits.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:21 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:15 pm
Great Maps Les and this will be fun to figure out over the next few days. Besides that system I believe the GFS in the longer term is at least showing the new pattern. Storms after next weekend will change and no problem but the pattern change is the most important. We need to get that snow cover to the northwest and if we can get a decent storm that models are trying to show around the 9th that is fine and matter of fact I would love to see us have a rain event changing to snow during that period. Without the snow cover we still will get cold but once these highs build in and move to the east if you don't have snow cover temps can warm up quicker. The Euro which comes out later usually in this type of pattern will keep the energy back in the southwest but with the active STJ this season the Euro has done much better. Saying that with cold air entering the pattern will the Euro go back to old habits.
It's just nice to have legit threats to track instead of 16 days (using the GFS) of nothing even wintry. We are going to be very busy here shortly and the weekend system kicks things off.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:22 pm
by tron777
Oh and Trev... I got your friend request. Thank you.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:29 pm
by tpweather
Guys keep up the good work. Watching football and a New Year's Eve party starting at 4pm.. That sounds dangerous but only 4 houses away and its all downhill on the way back home. 6 big games for the Bengals and they must win and then rooting for Indy and Seattle and would be nice to see Jacksonville,Houston and Buffalo to lose. Of course all of those probably will not happen but last weekend after the Bengals lost everybody lost except Buffalo which put the Bengals back in the hunt
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:36 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:29 pm
Guys keep up the good work. Watching football and a New Year's Eve party starting at 4pm.. That sounds dangerous but only 4 houses away and its all downhill on the way back home. 6 big games for the Bengals and they must win and then rooting for Indy and Seattle and would be nice to see Jacksonville,Houston and Buffalo to lose. Of course all of those probably will not happen but last weekend after the Bengals lost everybody lost except Buffalo which put the Bengals back in the hunt
Have a good time Tim! Hope to see better refs today. My Lions got screwed last night. I did hear that the refs for the Lions / Cowboys game have been demoted! This means they are not allowed to officiate any play off game. If what I read was true anyway.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 1:36 pm
by tron777
Big Hit for the I-70 Crew on the 12Z Euro for this coming weekend... wow!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:01 pm
by tron777
Then... we get snow to rain to dry slot for the big cyclone bomb storm on the Euro. Busy times ahead folks...
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:07 pm
by dce
Today's European for the next ten days! This is at a 10:1 ratio! Yikes!
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:11 pm
by tron777
dce wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:07 pm
Today's European for the next ten days! This is at a 10:1 ratio! Yikes!
Back to back big storms. Lots of model tracking to come! Finally, we have something interesting to keep our interests this week and next.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:20 pm
by dce
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:11 pm
dce wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:07 pm
Today's European for the next ten days! This is at a 10:1 ratio! Yikes!
Back to back big storms. Lots of model tracking to come! Finally, we have something interesting to keep our interests this week and next.
Finally! I almost feel like an Internet troll for posting that, but what the heck! We're all snow starved. Everyone on this forum knows how to take these maps a week out.
Re: January 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:30 pm
by tron777
12Z EPS Mean tracks this weekend's low from the FL Panhandle to the TN / VA border. It stalls for about 6-8 hours before transferring it's energy to an EC Low. What an interesting solution! EPS is pretty amp'ed for the next storm as well.