Re: November 2023 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Nov 03, 2023 9:41 am
Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
Hey Les and my post was not the best on timing but I do believe the last week of November gets busy. So lets go with Nov 23-30 we have plenty to talk about hopefullytron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 03, 2023 8:46 amHey Tim, good morning! I am ramping up my rainfall talk after mid month, the 3rd week of November. Until then, as Bgoney has correctly mentioned, we are in a zonal flow pattern with some troughing over the Pacific NW and ridging for us. That pattern of mild with light rain type systems should continue thru mid month. Then, I am expecting the STJ to kick in Week 3. If I understand your post correctly, I am probably a week earlier then you. You expect it to kick in the week of Thanksgiving? I hope I did not misunderstand so please correct me if I did.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 03, 2023 8:36 am Good Morning Les and we are almost on the same page. I believe you are somewhat on the wetter side over the next 2 weeks but everything else seems we are in agreement. We need the cold build up in northern and central Canada over the next few weeks and then we need to see what happens. Yes getting the PV to weaken or split and head this way is the best way to get cold air but yes you can get cold air with a stronger storm in southern Canada to grab some cold air and head this way. Though without the PV most cold spells are short in nature.
Still believe the GOM is loaded and once the STJ really gets going expect systems from Texas to the Carolina's to be in full force. Still believe that is still a few weeks away and one reason I believe we are have some showers here and there but nothing strong or major cold front until then.
I still believe late Nov or early Dec we get off to a decent start to met winter but will it be one that is long lasting or just a 3-5 day period where it gets cold and we get some snow. Usually when the El Nino gets going a major storm seems to be the key and will that happen late Nov and early Dec and we just wait and see.
I totally agree with your post here Tim. It looks like what we see is what we get for the next 2 weeks. In Week 3 if my call is right we get more active. Week 4 for your call. That's about where we stand at this point.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 03, 2023 2:02 pm Sounds good Les and I watched Brian's video and he did talk about gathering moisture in the southern plains I believe in week 2 but models are having a hard time figuring out where the moisture may go and does it head towards the Lakes or stay south in the southeast. At this moment I believe the southern plan has the best shot but something to look at next week. I believe locally we may see a day or two or showers next week but nothing really organized as we may be in that area where not much happens. The following week I believe the country as a whole gets busy but exactly where that may occur is still up in the air.
Yay dusky darkness at 5:30 or 6 o'clock!
I agree but the congress can't agree on anything including the color of the sky. Is it blue or green and of course both answers are incorrectMVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2023 9:00 amYay dusky darkness at 5:30 or 6 o'clock!![]()
![]()
I sure wish the current Congress e.g. would just make it DST year-round since there's 8 months of it compared to 4 months of Standard time.So stupid the falling back and springing forward anymore.
![]()
Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged for around 61 today.
I agree Tim, it would probably take a few weeks and possibly until around 1 o'clock in the morning.tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2023 10:31 amI agree but the congress can't agree on anything including the color of the sky. Is it blue or green and of course both answers are incorrectMVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2023 9:00 amYay dusky darkness at 5:30 or 6 o'clock!![]()
![]()
I sure wish the current Congress e.g. would just make it DST year-round since there's 8 months of it compared to 4 months of Standard time.So stupid the falling back and springing forward anymore.
![]()
Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged for around 61 today.
You meant to say decades right?MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2023 10:48 amI agree Tim, it would probably take a few weeks and possibly until around 1 o'clock in the morning.tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2023 10:31 amI agree but the congress can't agree on anything including the color of the sky. Is it blue or green and of course both answers are incorrectMVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2023 9:00 amYay dusky darkness at 5:30 or 6 o'clock!![]()
![]()
I sure wish the current Congress e.g. would just make it DST year-round since there's 8 months of it compared to 4 months of Standard time.So stupid the falling back and springing forward anymore.
![]()
Currently 46 here in G'ville and progged for around 61 today.![]()
![]()
The EPS has backed off from its previous idea of a weaker PV come mid December as well as the SSW idea. It's still a long ways off though, and I wouldn't really worry about much beyond the 10-14 day period anyway. For now though, no changes to what we are currently seeing pattern wise. As Bgoney said, the MJO isn't going to change for a while either. Hopefully, we get cooler the week of Thanksgiving, if the +PNA spike some of the guidance is showing pans out. As usual, we shall see!tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Nov 05, 2023 10:11 am Great Post Les and last week models were just to wet for the upcoming week. Going to take a little time to get the northern jet and southern jet getting together. Sure each jet can provide their own system but usually week and precip remain mainly to our north and south. I still love the build up of cold air in the northern regions which is allowing the PV to gain strength. I like its getting strong in early November instead of early December which gives us a better shot of the PV losing strength once we get in the heart of winter.
Les I had no idea the EPS was showing a weaker PV in mid December. When you guys post the longer term models is usually the only time I look at those and thanks for supplying those items. At the moment colder air is really trying to form in northern Canada more so than Siberia and again November just started and many things can change but I like the PV being more on this side of the planet. Again many times the PV will be on both sides depending how strong and how wide is is showing. Many times we do get the elongated PV which send some cold down to either Asia,Europe or the USA. When that happens the cold can be nice but in more narrow area.tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 05, 2023 10:25 amThe EPS has backed off from its previous idea of a weaker PV come mid December as well as the SSW idea. It's still a long ways off though, and I wouldn't really worry about much beyond the 10-14 day period anyway. For now though, no changes to what we are currently seeing pattern wise. As Bgoney said, the MJO isn't going to change for a while either. Hopefully, we get cooler the week of Thanksgiving, if the +PNA spike some of the guidance is showing pans out. As usual, we shall see!tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Nov 05, 2023 10:11 am Great Post Les and last week models were just to wet for the upcoming week. Going to take a little time to get the northern jet and southern jet getting together. Sure each jet can provide their own system but usually week and precip remain mainly to our north and south. I still love the build up of cold air in the northern regions which is allowing the PV to gain strength. I like its getting strong in early November instead of early December which gives us a better shot of the PV losing strength once we get in the heart of winter.
Getting a weaker PV or even a SSW is rare in an El Nino but the odds do go up when you combine that with a -QBO which we have in our favor. It is going to come down to the blocking up top and the PV to see if we get decent cold shots this winter. If you can time a shot of cold air with the active STJ then we will have some fun periods ahead. Otherwise, it will be mild if we don't see it. I favor blocking and a +PNA at times simply because that has been the overall pattern as a whole since Spring, so it's been very persistent. At the same time, we still have La Nina like effects going on right now with the -PDO. So again... lots of conflicting signals attm which is a big point that I have been touting for a while now.tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Nov 05, 2023 10:36 amLes I had no idea the EPS was showing a weaker PV in mid December. When you guys post the longer term models is usually the only time I look at those and thanks for supplying those items. At the moment colder air is really trying to form in northern Canada more so than Siberia and again November just started and many things can change but I like the PV being more on this side of the planet. Again many times the PV will be on both sides depending how strong and how wide is is showing. Many times we do get the elongated PV which send some cold down to either Asia,Europe or the USA. When that happens the cold can be nice but in more narrow area.tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 05, 2023 10:25 amThe EPS has backed off from its previous idea of a weaker PV come mid December as well as the SSW idea. It's still a long ways off though, and I wouldn't really worry about much beyond the 10-14 day period anyway. For now though, no changes to what we are currently seeing pattern wise. As Bgoney said, the MJO isn't going to change for a while either. Hopefully, we get cooler the week of Thanksgiving, if the +PNA spike some of the guidance is showing pans out. As usual, we shall see!tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Nov 05, 2023 10:11 am Great Post Les and last week models were just to wet for the upcoming week. Going to take a little time to get the northern jet and southern jet getting together. Sure each jet can provide their own system but usually week and precip remain mainly to our north and south. I still love the build up of cold air in the northern regions which is allowing the PV to gain strength. I like its getting strong in early November instead of early December which gives us a better shot of the PV losing strength once we get in the heart of winter.